BEST of the BETS

I have had a small bet on Pearl Acclaim, it has got a lot of positives including being one of the few that have shown form this season. But it is a very open looking race, I made it a 13/2 shot so no great confidence. It is drifting, which may be a negative, and available at 12/1 now.

Notes : to explain a few of my prices that look out of line, course form has been a big factor in my pricing so that would explain why I have Poets Pride so big as he has never run here before. I haven’t factored age into my calculations, that would explain why teenagers Interchoice Star and Sir Geoffrey are much shorter on my prices.

It looks like a no bet race for me, but there maybe a little bit value in Pearl Acclaim.

1:35 Southwell, big field low grade handicap and it was quite challenging. Not surprisingly, my prices make this a very open race and I have RP’s top 2 at double figure prices so I may have got this badly wrong but let’s see.

RP : 5/1 First Excel, Poets Pride, The Golden Cue, 7/1 Fly True, Kommander Kirkup, Liamba, 8/1 Muatadel, Pearl Acclaim, 14/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 20/1 Coiste BoDhar, 25/1 Major Crispies, 40/1 Sir Geoffrey, 50/1 Interchoice Star

My prices : 13/2 Pearl Acclaim, 7/1 Fly True, 8/1 Liamba, Interchoice Star, 17/2 The Golden Cue, 9/1 Kommander Kirkup, 10/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 11/1 First Excel, Muatadel, 14/1 Sir Geoffrey, 25/1 Poets Pride, 50/1 Coiste BoDhar, Major Crispies

Prices taken from Paddy Power last night : 5/1 First Excel, Poets Pride, 11/2 Muatadel, 7/1 The Golden Cue, 15/2 Fly True, Liamba, Pearl Acclaim, 9/1 Kommander Kirkup, 12/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 25/1 Coiste BoDhar, 33/1 Major Crispies, 50/1 Sir Geoffrey, 100/1 Interchoice Star

Well done.

Two runners at Southwell tomorrow

1:35 - Pearl Acclaim (8/1), poor at Chelmsford last time but all 4 all weather wins have come here, including in a weaker race two starts ago. I am pricing up this race for other thread, so will be able to say more about his chances in morning.

2:35 - Ornate (2/1), is obviously a good sprinter and he should be thereabouts again, and price reflects this.

Here is some data to back up what I said about importance of predicting the market correctly.

These are the results of favourites for past 5 years

28.24% of forecast favourites won
30.89% of early (morning) favourites won
33.31% of Industry SP favourites won
34.39% of Betfair SP favourites won

You can see, the closer you get to the race time, the more accurate the market gets. That’s a big percentage difference between the performance of favourite you see in the paper or even at morning prices and the horse that is favourite at the off.

SP: 9/4 Xtara (2nd), 5/2 Distant Mirage (won), Probablity (3rd), 8/1 Urban Highway (6th), 16/1 Zaula (4th), 25/1 Haats Off (7th), 40/1 Under Curfew (5th), 50/1 Lysander Belle (8th)

Well done us, Brian, ok we didn’t get the winner but we beat the Racing Post today at least, It looked unlikely, seeing their favourite at 5/4 this morning, this is what this thread is about - getting the market right. I need to make some adjustments to my prices for outsiders as I am getting them too short.

Thanks, Calvert.

Nice price, well done.

Thanks, Brian, it’s good to be able to compare prices. Our prices are not too dissimilar for most of runners today. Not surprised that Probability has drifted, Distant Mirage has a chance but now she too looks short. I made Xtara fav on strength of c&d form, but I see not a lot has been traded on it on Betfair, so it might drift.

Looking at 5:45 race at Kempton

RP : 6/4 Probability, 9/2 Xtara, 5/1 Distant Mirage, 6/1 Zaula, 8/1 Urban Highway, 16/1 Haats Off, Lysander Belle, 20/1 Under Curfew

My prices : 10/3 Xtara, 9/2 Probability, Distant Mirage, Zaula, 15/2 Haats Off, 17/2 Under Curfew, 9/1 Lysander Belle, 12/1 Urban Highway

Current prices : 5/4 Probability, 11/4 Distant Mirage, 4/1 Xtara, 7/1 Zaula, 10/1 Urban Highway, 16/1 Haats Off, 25/1 Lysander Belle, Under Curfew

Again no bets for me, only watching, but Zaula and Xtara would be the value for me.

Good article on creating own prices https://backlucrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Create-your-own-odds.pdf

Starting prices : 4/9 Wings Of Time (Won), 9/2 Solar Heights (3rd), 7/1 Ardimento (4th), 14/1 Reggae Runner (2nd), 50/1 Golden Grenade (6th), 80/1 Thedevilinneville (5th)

Favourite didn’t have to work hard for the win, to be fair he was top on nearly all the ratings but not clear enough to suggest such a short price. I might pick another race tomorrow, and try again maybe with a few adjustments.

Well done, Brian, on highlighting Reggae Runner as value on your ratings, good 2nd.

Thanks, Brian, very interesting. I take it the last column (Val) is your price. Atlantic City and Perfect Grace non runners now, looking at all the forecasts it’s clear no one expected Wings Of Time to be odds on, let’s see how it goes in the race.

Good read, and some good points made by everyone. Many reasons why it can’t work for racing, one there are too many variables, and even if someone can master all the variables there is still hidden information not available to general public (especially in low grade races, because you can never be sure if they will be trying or not). Another question is, does the market get formed based on crowd’s opinion or is it the other way around, I would say it’s the latter. So I agree with other posters about not looking at prices or even forecast prices, and try to create your own tissue, but with so many variables to consider it’s not easy to do that either.

Another winner, well done.

Good luck, Peregrine, I have backed this too, has a good chance.

Great shout with Geography Teacher, well done.

Nice one, Joe.

Good luck, Dodd. I need Tobeeornotobee for a double, but if I mine doesn’t win I hope yours does.

Well done, Joe, with the winner.