BEST of the BETS

Good luck Peregrine. I like Journey With Me (9/2). Sir Gerhard was beaten by Kilcruit & O’Toole in Champion Bumper at Punchestown festival last year. Over jumps, JWM has easily beaten both those horses at Leopardstown & Naas respectively so his form looks solid to me.

Haven’t been around here for a while, just seen your post Rodeo, sorry to read you have been having such a rough time with your health. You are a fighter, don’t let anything beat you, hope your health improves soon, all the best mate.

That is a brilliant selection Bonzo, very well done.

I fancied this at Naas at the weekend, but they pulled it out. Saw your post this morning, but foolishly I still didn’t back it. Hope you had a good bet on this.

Got that race completely wrong, the one I didn’t think could win, the 11 year old won. My one was travelling well enough but did not pick up at all and well beaten 4th in end.

Staked = 11
Returns = 10.44
P/L = -0.56

Last 10 results (main bets only) - 212P242P14

Hi DFM, no problem for me about advice on my thread. I am open to everyone’s opinion but always make my own mind up in the end. Regarding betting place only, then yes with above 10 bets I would have made profit of 3.28 pts at Betfair SP, but it’s only a small sample and I am hoping I will get more winners than 2nds in future.

Bet 11

3:10 Ayr - 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle (4, heavy)

Calivigny has a good record here with 4 wins, and won easily over fences last time, but he has never won from a mark this high, at age of 11 and a couple of unexposed rivals he will do well to defy this mark so not for me. Leostar also won very easily (14 lengths eased down) last time, his first win, has been raised 14 lbs for that and this is a much better race.

One that interests me most is, You Name Him, Tom Lacey’s runners first time in a handicap are always worth noting. He has 11 wins from 54 runners (LSP +19) when running them in a handicap hurdle for first time, with those that had placed on previous start and were stepping up in distance by 3 furlongs or more on handicap debut the record is 11721 (7th was a big price) for LSP of +16.50. Judging by pedigree, this one looks sure to be suited by step up in trip. Heavy going is one question as I generally don’t like backing young horses on heavy going, but Proclamation’s progeny has a good record on it - 8 wins (with 6 different horses) from 55 on heavy in NH races, 7 from 24 (+16 LSP) if you only include those priced under 10/1.

Although he has been beaten by 9 lengths or more in all his races so far, form of those races is pretty good. Beaten 20 lengths in 5th at Southwell, but the first 3 between them have since then won 7 races from 13 and are rated 131, 127 & 140. 2nd race he was 10 lengths behind the winner, who has since then won a couple more and finished 2nd in Grade 2 at Chepstow and is rated 141. No winners from his last race yet, but it probably wasn’t a bad race either as there were 125 and 122 rated horses that were well beaten and the winner went close in class 2 last time. So there is enough form to suggest he can be competitive from opening mark of 114.

One negative is that despite this being a long way to travel, Lacey’s record at Ayr is not great - he sent 4 runners here at last meeting couple of weeks ago but could finish no better than 4th with any of them. But this time the jockey is Jonathan Burke, who has only been to Ayr couple of times before (for the Scots National meeting), they have a few runners today so we might get a clue from how the first couple run.

Doyen Breed is another unexposed runner, he finished 2nd on handicap debut last time. That looked a weak race though, so he needs to improve but there is every chance that he could improve as it was first run for trainer and first after a break last time.

Bets
You Name Him, 0.6 pt win @ 5/1, 0.4 pt to finish in 1st two @ 7/4

Good luck.

Thanks, well done you too.

Short price, but made up for yesterday.

Staked = 10
Returns = 10.44
P/L = +0.44

Last 10 results (main bets only) - 2212P242P1

Bet 10

2:50 Carlisle - 3m 1/2f Handicap Chase (3, soft)

Course form is an important factor here, and as 4 of the 7 runners are previous course winners I think the winner will come from these. Out of these Bafana Blue is out of form, including when only 6th over c&d last month, though he has dropped to just 1 lb above his last winning mark now. But he was also well behind Tanarpino last time, so looks unlikely. Tanarpino won well here on seasonal return but his handicap mark has gone back up in 130s and he might find it tough against a couple of improvers especially with his record of 1 from 21 (placed 7 times) in class 3.

Rath An Iuir and Up Helly Aa King both did well on their returns last time. Rath An Iuir win came here, and he likely has more improvement of the two as it was his chasing debut, but UHAK also can not be ignored as he is 2 from 2 here. The latter is a big drifter in betting this morning, but there is nothing alarming about that as he is one of those horses that run well despite drifting in betting - looking at betting for his last 5 races, won (drifted from 7/2 to 13/2), 3rd (10/3 to 6/1), 2nd (15/2 to 14/1), won (9/4 to 7/2), and last time won after drifting from 7/2 to 10/1.

I prefer Rath An Iuir because he is so lightly raced, but had a saver on Up Helly Aa King.

Bets
Rath An Iuir, 0.8 pt win @ 13/8
Up Helly Aa King, 0.2 pt win @ 15/2

Good luck.

Sorry. Very poor selections today, beaten a long way out. I completely ignored the winner’s chance, form wasn’t bad but I didn’t think he will be ready first time as trainer was something like 1 from 70 after similar break.

Staked = 9
Returns = 8.34
P/L = -0.66

Thanks.

Bet 9

12:47 Bangor - 2m 1 1/2f Handicap Chase (4, soft)

Twotwothree won a novice handicap over c&d last season but that was from a 19 lbs lower mark than today and it was on first run of season, so not sure how much 2nd time improvement can be expected this time, so I am going against him. Rizzardo took advantage of dropping mark to win nicely last time, he is back up 5 lbs but could still run well as he had run ok in higher class last season. He is dropping back in trip but I don’t think it’s a problem. Etilla De Sivola is the likely pacesetter in this, hopefully he will set a strong enough pace so this shorter trip won’t inconvenience likes of Rizzardo and Caboy, who I see as the main danger as he didn’t run badly over 2 and half here in a slightly stronger race last time. Both Nigel Twiston-Davies and Lucinda Russell (trainers of Rizzardo and Caboy respectively) are 1 from 1 in this race, NTD won with Colin’s Brother (11/10) in 2016, and Russell won in 2018 with Vengeur De Guye (4/1).

Bets
Rizzardo, 0.8 pt win @ 15/8
Caboy, 0.2 pt win @ 13/2

Good luck.

Le Reveur gets beaten after going 1.38 in running. So in the end, my decision to go each way was right as getting money back is better than losing.

Staked = 8
Returns = 8.34
P/L = +0.34

Thanks for the suggestion, DFM, some days I like a challenge though and I don’t exclude any type of races. I am not worried about the bank at the moment, as I hinted at the start that primary purpose of this was to bring discipline back to my betting as it had got really wild lately. I know I wasn’t posting them here but was having way too many bets every day, it can be good on good days but bad days are a killer. For last one week, I haven’t had any other bet apart from this one a day, if I can keep going for a month or so without losing much of my bank I will be happy.

Bet 8

2:10 Southwell - 3yo+ 7f Handicap (5, 0-70, standard)

Maybe this is a tighter race than it first looked to me, so I have changed my bet to each way instead of straight win. Selection is Le Reveur, who ran well on his fibresand debut last week and was the only one to give a race to Lexi The One, who had won by over 5 lengths over c&d a week earlier, and if it wasn’t for Le Reveur she would have won by a similar distance again.

There are plenty of dangers. Robero has a good record here, last run wasn’t that bad but handicapper has given him a real chance by dropping him 4 lbs. Star Of St James ran poorly here last time, but earlier course form gives him a chance especially with Hanagan taking over from an apprentice, and Nearly A Gonna would have a chance if he takes to this surface (there is some doubt about that judging by pedigree).

There are others with chance too, but I think if Le Reveur can reproduce his effort from last week then he has to go close.

Bet
Le Reveur, 0.5 pt e/w @ 4/1

Good luck.

Not a bad run, but not good enough either, Normandy Soldier just out of places in 4th. Hey Bud was poor.

Staked = 7
Returns = 7.34
P/L = +0.34

Thank you.

Bet 7

2:11 Taunton - 2m 7f Novices Handicap Chase (4, good)

Short of time today, so not giving detailed reasoning but I am again taking a chance on fitness of one. Normandy Soldier makes his chasing debut on first run since February. He did well over hurdles last season including when a close 2nd in higher class here. Trainer has a good record (3 from 13) at his local track, his runner in this race last year Apple Mack (who runs in the 3:11 race today) ran better than his finishing position of 7th, this one is a better horse and has greater stamina so I am hoping he will run well.

Saver on Hey Bud, even though there are some stamina doubts about him stepping up in trip, but he is dropping in class and has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Bets
Normandy Soldier, 0.4 pt e/w @ 10/1
Hey Bud, 0.2 pt win @ 13/2

Good luck.

Ran well, but probably needed the run and maybe the winner has improved too. Small profit made for finishing 2nd anyway so happy enough with that.

Staked = 6
Returns = 7.34
P/L = +1.34

Thanks DFM, yes in hindsight, and I did think about it but I really felt that Skyhill would run better than he did so was disappointed with that.

Bet 6

3:15 Dundalk - 3yo+ 1 mile maiden (standard)

The top 3 in betting (Stately Home, Orchid Gardens & Mosala) have found it difficult to win but all three have shown enough to suggest that they are capable of winning a race like this. Although, Showmolina isn’t completely ruled out as he didn’t run badly last time and should improve on 2nd run for trainer over the extra furlong but I think he needs to as this looks a much better race than last time. Back to the top 3, and Orchid Gardens has had most runs, in her 9 runs she has 5 2nd places, couple of 3rds and 4ths including in a Listed race and in couple of good handicaps at the Curragh, so she does have the ability but keeps finding one or two too good. They are trying the headgear for first time today and is ridden by 7 lbs apprentice, if the headgear has the desired effect she could win this.

Stately Home has finished 2nd on all 3 starts but was unlucky to lose by the narrowest margin here last time (traded 1.03 in running) on first start for Damian English, having previously been trained at Newmarket by James Tate. He was a huge drifter in betting last time, going off at 15/2 having been as short as 15/8 earlier in the day, which may suggest that he will come on for the run. Other division of that maiden was won in 1.01 second faster time by Fastnet Rock, who had finished 9 lengths behind Mosala at Limerick earlier in the season. I know that was FR’s debut but it does show that the form of that Limerick maiden has worked out well. As well as Fastnet Rock (who had finished 7th in that race), the 4th and 12th have also won maidens and the winner has won a handicap off 87. Mosala was beaten under a length in that race.

After that, Mosala was stepped up in class in a conditions race where he was the lowest rated horse and could finish only 4th of 5 (beaten 19 lengths), but the winner was Galileo Chrome, who has gone on to win the St Leger, and 3rd horse Camorra went very close in the Irish November handicap. Mosala should find this much easier than last time, he has been gelded since that run and returns after a 4 month break. The surface shouldn’t be a problem as his sire Kodiac does get plenty of winners here, it’s just a question of if he is fit.

It’s a difficult race as I think any of the 3 could win it, Mosala has as good a chance, if not better, as the other two, and as he is much bigger price than other two I feel he is the value so I am taking a chance on his fitness and backing him.

Bets
Mosala, 0.5 pt win @ 4/1, 0.5 pt to finish in 1st two @ 7/4

Good luck.

Main bet was never going well, but the saver saved me, come out of the race with a small loss of 0.135 pt (there was a 5p in £ rule 4)

Staked = 5
Returns = 5.965
P/L = +0.965

Great shout, Joe.

Bet 5

1:16 Sedgefield - 3m 2 1/2f Handicap Chase (4, 0-110, good)

3 of these ran over this c&d 19 days ago, Nortonthorpelegend finished 3rd (beaten 7 lengths), Skyhill was 6th (beaten 30 lengths), Late Date pulled up. Nortonthorpelegend, previous winner of this race (won in 2016), has good chance of going close as last race looked bit more competitive than this, and Brian Hughes’ record with his last 6 rides in this race (213211) is quite impressive, but at around 13/8 he is way too short in betting so not for me. Late Date has won 3 times over c&d but he only seems to win in small fields that he can dominate, that is unlikely to happen today.

So out of these 3, Skyhill is the one for me, it was his first run of season so may have needed it. He was quite progressive last season, winning 4 times, and he is only 7 and only had 6 chase runs so there may still be bit more improvement. Interesting stat about trainer Alison Hamilton, since the 2nd half of 2013 she has had only 15 winners, 14 (from 156 runners) of these have been ridden by one of her nephews (Tom and Jamie), compared to just 1 winner from 111 runners when ridden by a different jockey. That doesn’t mean he is going to win today but it does suggest that maybe he wasn’t fancied last time as Jamie wasn’t on it.

The Late Legend is another one that isn’t fully exposed yet (only had 6 runs over fences) though he was well beaten at Huntingdon last time, he could have a chance if you can forgive that run. Race trends favour these two too, 6 to 8 year olds have won 10 of 12 runnings of this race from 66 runners, compared to 2 wins from 44 for those aged 9+, and 9 of the 12 runnings have been won by first 3 in betting. Having said that, we have to careful with age stats as this year 8 of the 10 runners are aged 9+.

Scoop The Pot hasn’t won for nearly two years but he is potentially well handicapped having come down a lot in weights, so maybe worth keeping an eye in market. It’s difficult to make a case for most of the others.

It’s quite a tricky race so I have taken a cautious approach with my bets by going each way as well as having a saver.

Bets
Skyhill, 0.4 pt e/w @ 9/1
The Late Legend, 0.2 pt win @ 7/2

Good luck.

Thanks guys. Well done with your winner DFM, wonder if we will pick same race again.

Good run from Kakamora (SP 11/1), no match for the winner but I am happy with a little profit.

Staked = 4
Returns = 5.10
P/L = +1.10

12:25 Ludlow - 2 mile maiden hurdle (class 4, good to soft)

Eyes are first drawn towards Tom Dascombe and Finoah, Dascombe does not have many runners over jumps, indeed the last time he ran one over jumps was back in 2009, more than 11 years ago. 2 of his first 3 winners when he started his training career in early 2006 actually came here at Ludlow (both wins were with same horse), he has never had another runner here, so has his 100% strike rate at Ludlow to maintain. Finoah is one of 3 that have been rated in 80s and 90s on the flat (Lissitzky and Just The Man are other two). As this looks quite a good race, I think hurdling experience will be important, but keep an eye on betting for Finoah anyway because it’s such a rare jumps runner for the trainer. Out of these flat racers, only Just The Man has run over hurdles, he placed 3rd on hurdling debut but was well behind the front two and that didn’t look a particularly strong race so I think he needs to improve a fair bit but it’s not impossible.

Long Stay is the pick of hurdling form, he finished 2nd on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh, that looks strong form as there were two previous hurdles winners in there that finished 4th & 5th (more than 15 lengths behind Long Stay, 5th rated 108). So, Long Stay has to be thereabouts, he could win it but is a silly price at 4/6 as this is not such an easy race with some potentially good horses in there on ground softer than what he has raced on so far. So I am going to look for some value against him.

The one that has potential to do well is Kakamora, he was beaten 40+ lengths when last of 6 finishers on his rules debut at Exeter, but the fact that he was priced up as clear 2nd favourite at one stage against triple bumper winner Ask A Honey Bee tells me that he is well thought of. He drifted back out to 11/2 before the off and was beaten a long way from home. Maybe going was too quick for him, pedigree suggests softer going will suit better, and it was a hot race anyway. He represents top connections, owned by Tim Syder, who bought him for £105,000 after his point to point win last year. Pedigree is quite nice too, dam half-sister to Grade 1 winning hurdler Bitofapuzzle and Listed hurdles winner Golden Gael. There is enough there to suggest that he will win races at some stage of his career, I am hoping he will improve enough from his debut to run well today.

Bet
Kakamora, 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1

Good luck.