2024 bets Thanks, Malcolm, best of luck with your bets.
Bet #2 - 3:50 Leicester - Embolden @ 13/2
Winning form is quite thin in this race. Embolden is one of only 3 in this 13-runner field that have ever won a race, and from these three Invincible Wish has not won for more than 6 years, that leaves Embolden and Tara Iti as the only two that have won within last year. Tara Iti was 36 lengths behind Embolden when they met at Plumpton last month so it seems unlikely that he can turn it around.
Admittedly, 2 of Embolden's 5 wins came in claimers/sellers for previous trainers, but he has at least shown that he is able to win which is more than can be said for some of the others in the race. He is 2 from 24 for current trainer, one win on flat (OR 63) and one over hurdles (OR 93) last April. In 11 runs since that win, he has mostly been consistent, placing 5 times. Handicap mark has dropped to 88 now.
It wasn't an easy decision to back though as trainer Clare Hobson doesn't get winners very often, she has had just 7 wins (2 of those with this horse) from 365 runs in 11 years of her training career. That record improves a bit to 5 from 131 in jumps handicaps, 1 win in each of last 5 years. But that is also why booking of a top jockey in Sam Twiston-Davies catches the eye, Sam has never ridden for Hobson before but trainer's record in jumps handicaps improves to 2 from 18 when they are ridden by a jockey with 25+ wins in past year.
Hard to feel very confident given trainer's record but it's a very ordinary race and at the price I feel it's worth chancing.
Robber's Bridge is also pretty consistent, but is still a maiden after 15 runs and has failed to win off similar marks in past, and he was 6 lengths behind the selection at Uttoxeter in October off 2 lbs better terms.