BEST of the BETS

Got that wrong as the top two pulled miles clear of the rest, must be a very poor race, two horses mentioned as big price possibles only 6th and 12th. Was right about Elliott though as the hotpot got turned over.

Non runner yesterday.

Bet 10

Wembley (4:15 Curragh)

LSP: -4.50

Wins: 5/2,

1 n/r

Two possibles yesterday finished last and 3rd last so no good, was correct about the favourites though.


2:05 Tramore

Thimbleweed....143....32%
Le Boot Des Champs....136....50%
Courting Vickie....114....41%
Heidi’s Lady....114....41%
Moonlight Glory....114....41%
Aidacon....113....41%
Cluain Dun....104....41%
Donttellcatherine....104....41%
Senorita Madore....84....27%
Grinn....63....14%
Moll Dote....62....14%
Escort’namix....55....9%
Millalee....20....5%

First two in betting make up over 90% share of the market so the winner is expected to come from them but I am not convinced by either so it wouldn’t surprise me if there is an upset in this race. Escort’namix is 4/9, but Elliott’s record in maiden hurdles at Tramore is really quite poor, only 7 wins from 76 including 3 from 14 when favourite. Declan Queally has a better record here but Moll Dote is still a maiden after 17 runs (including 13 over hurdles and twice as favourite). I am a bit tempted to have a very small each way on Le Boot Des Champs (18/1), Peter Croke has only had 10 winners but 3 of those have been in maiden hurdles. Won a similar race here last year at 7/1, coincidently beating shorter priced runners from Elliott and Queally on that occasion, that one had benefit of experience though. Trainers record when debuting over hurdles is 0 from 5, but got placed with the only one of those (14/1) that was shorter than 50/1. I would be more confident if she had had a run though as not easy winning these first time. Aidacon (28/1) is another possible, she showed some ability first time before disappointing next time, needs to improve. So, Le Boot Des Champs & Aidacon two each way possibles in my opinion.

Nice one, Joe.

Great post, OJ, deserved a winner and got it. Followed you on it, thanks and well done.

That was a worthwhile trip to Leicester, they had another winner 8/1.

Well done with Trueshan.

My bet let down by Raatea. Pretty Pickle was a non runner and other two ran well to win at evens and place at 10/1.

Good luck, Cork.

Nice winners, Joe, good luck with evening ones.

Well done TL

Bet 9

Pretty Pickle (6:05 Leicester)

LSP: -4.50

Wins: 5/2,

Thanks guys.

7:05 Leicester

Parker’s Boy....188....22%
Bad Company....139....39%
Blairlogie....107....39% (+?)
Burguillos....102....39%
Pettinger....99....33%
Falacho....97....28%
Axel Jacklin....90....44%
Tony’s Rocket....81....28%
Liam’s Lass....68....33%
Parknacilla....57....22%
Abushamah....30....11%

Note - Blairlogie can possibly be rated higher, as one of the factors in my ratings for this race is trainer form. Channon has gone 20 runners without a winner, so not quite out of form yet but he has 8 runners today and you would normally expect him to get at least one winner from them. In last two years, he has run 8 or more horses on a day on 12 occasions and only twice he has drawn a blank. This is the last of his 8 runners today, and if he hasn’t had a winner by this time then maybe you could say he is out of form.

On to the ratings, and low confidence overall for the race. Parker’s Boy at top but very low confidence, not impossible in race like this but unlikely. Liam’s Lass very low down on my ratings, not saying she can’t win but it looks tough. Burguillos likely to be thereabouts but short enough price to start with and now drifting. My two possible selections will be Bad Company and Axel Jacklin, who seems to have two ways of running, either he wins or finishes last. And if Channon is having a good day then it would be difficult to ignore Blairlogie. So a tricky race, Bad Company and Axel Jacklin two possibles, but not putting any money on them.

Two horses mentioned as possible selections finished 1st & 8th, winner returning at 5/1.

Well done again.

Bet 8

Sansevero Chapel (4:45 Leopardstown)

LSP: -3.50

Wins: 5/2,

Well done.

Well done.

Good start.

4:45 Leopardstown

I have picked probably one of the toughest races of the day, an 18 runner 45-65 handicap for 3 year olds. Normally it’s rare to have such low grade races at Leopardstown, but this isn’t a normal season and they have already run 4 of these 65 ceiling handicaps here this season and results have been interesting. 4 winners have returned at prices of 22/1, 20/1, 18/1 & 50/1, throw in a 100/1 2nd too, so these have been a real lottery. This is the first one that’s restricted to 3 year olds so maybe different, there is a worse race after this the 5:15. Probably do better by sticking a pin but here are the ratings for what they are worth.

Jm Barrie....94....22%
Sweet Justice....94....22%
Tommy The Hat....94....22%
Be Like The Bird....87....53%
Take My Hand....86....46%
Kodiac Prince....85....54%
Porter Rockwell....85....54%
Swift Sonnet....85....54%
My Lucky Penny....85....61%
Rotokura....85....61%
Abbys Magic....84....57%
Anjika....84....54%
Power And Pace....84....54%
Ranger Bob....83....50%
Sansevero Chapel....83....50%
Impetuous....82....54%
Phillys Hope....82....54%
Stellify....82....54%

Favourite and 2nd favourite are joint top on my rating but with low confidence so are opposable in my view. Take My Hand and Sansevero Chapel would be tentative selections. But I am not backing anything yet as this is only an experiment - I will watch it for 10 races at least and only back after that if it seems to show a definite edge.

Non runner now, Brian. But maybe worth keeping an eye on. Dalgleish 11 from 116 (+28 LSP) next time after they were beaten 30+ lengths (flat & aw only), and 5 from 19 (+28 LSP) if they are also ridden by Fanning having had a different jockey on board the previous run. Also worth noting when he has Callum Rodriguez riding for him.

The two highlighted as possible selections were only 5th & 6th, the favourite won very easily. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.