BEST of the BETS

Bet 1

Al Suhail (1:50 Newmarket)

LSP:

Only 4th, behind the impressive winner Shale.

LSP: -3.40 (win), -10.30 (place)

Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed) - 1:50 Newmarket

Al Suhail - beat only one home in the 2000 Guineas last time, but has earlier c&d form finishing a close 2nd in Group 3 Autumn Stakes (perhaps he ought to have won that race). Return of William Buick is a plus. Trainer 0 from 5 (2 placed) in this race though. Likely to be thereabouts.

Emaraty Hero - yet to get close enough in 3 maidens/novices. Has a mountain to climb here from rating of only 77.

Lord Campari - finished 6th on debut behind Palace Pier (Group 1 winner), and bolted up in a novice race over a mile at Newbury last month, 2nd (handicap off 88) & 3rd (maiden) have both won on their next run. So form looks strong, and he is open to any amount improvement after just two runs. Price maybe a bit short though on this step up in class against horses who already have Group race form.

Magical Morning - defied a penalty to win his 2nd novice in a month. Form of Yarmouth race is working out just ok, like Lord Campari he is also open to improvement but it is a big step up in class.

Mystery Power - Hannon won this with Tupi in 2015 following his 4th in the Jersey. This one beaten too far back in Jersey on reappearance and also well beaten final start last season in Dewhurst. Both those on soft going, maybe better ground today will help and is stepping up to a mile for first time, so wouldn’t completely rule him out but does need to bounce back to form.

Ropey Guest - Running reasonably well in Group 3s, including a 4th in the Jersey last time, but was beaten 7 lengths by Al Suhail here in the Autumn, and it will be a surprise if he can turn that around.

Separate - only filly in the race, well beaten on both previous tries at a mile but both were in testing conditions, worth a try to see if she stays the trip on this better ground. Has a good record here, including a close 3rd in Oh So Sharp (Group 3). Unlikely winner but could run better than her price of 66/1.

Tilsit - won by 19 lengths on 2nd start at long odds on, but had nothing to beat. All other horses making the frame had been beaten by wide margins in all their previous races, this is a very different test. Makes turf debut after both runs at Newcastle.

This is proven Group form vs potential. Lord Campari could be anything, but price is too short. I prefer AL SUHAIL, who is proven at this level and over c&d, hopefully he can live up to his rating of 112. Mystery Power would have a chance if bouncing back to form and improving for step up in distance, and Separate is a possible in extra places market.

Selection - Al Suhail @ 7/2

Good luck.

Well done with Majestic Noor.

Both unplaced.

LSP: -2.40 (win), -9.30 (place)

5:55 Gowran Park - 2yo 1 mile fillies maiden

Cycladic - dam won handicaps at 3 over 10-12f, but related to couple of 2yo winners including Unnefer who turned out to be Listed/Group 3 class over 8-10f. Stable 2 from 19 on 2yo debuts here but it’s worth noting that only 3 of those went off at single figure prices and they finished 113 (winners priced 7/1 & 6/1)

High Heels - related to couple of maiden winners over a mile, but both wins came at 3, dam also didn’t win until she was 3, so may need more time. Unfancied 40/1 shot on debut at Curragh 10 days ago, and finished last of 9.

Malaysian - dam won over 6 furlongs at 3, related to winners at up to mile and half but at a very low level. Pedigree lacks the class of few others in the race.

Shale - sister to Berkeley Square & Celtic High King, both maiden winners at 2 over a mile, dam a surprise winner of 1000 Guineas in 2012, had won up to Listed level over a mile at 2. Only 6th of 7 on debut at Leopardstown 2 weeks ago, but likely to improve.

Speedy Pix - related to 2yo winners but at a very low level and over sprint distances, dam related to several winners but mostly at up to Class 4-5 level. Finished tailed off on debut last month.

Umneyaat - Dam unraced half sister to Galileo Rock (placed in English and Irish Derbies and in St Leger), Saddlers Rock (winner of Doncaster and Goodwood Cups, placed in Ascot Gold Cup), Tarfasha (placed in Oaks), and to other winners over middle to staying distances. Galileo Rock, Tarfasha and Allexina all won over a mile at 2 in summer maidens. She is a clear pick on pedigree. Stable has a good record in 2yo maidens here although much better record is on 2nd outing.

Weight of money behind High Heels makes this tricky race even trickier, till this morning nearly 90% of money matched for this race on Betfair had been for High Heels, it’s dropped to 64% at the moment. It has meant that both Shale and Umneyaat are very weak on the exchange. I really liked Umneyaat on pedigree but if it keeps drifting then that would be offputting backing it first time out. Jessica Harrington’s runner CYCLADIC’s price is holding up well, and she usually has them ready (backing all her 2yo debutants that are priced under 10/1 shows overall profit), so I am hopeful this one will run a good race at least.

Selection - Cycladic @ 7/2

Good luck.

Amethyst Stakes (Group 3) - 5:25 Leopardstown

Sinawaan is a short price based on his 6th (beaten 5 lengths) in the Irish 2000 Guineas, trainer not in great form though, Mick Halford has gone 28 runners without a winner (4 placed), although only 3 were favourite including an odds on, not saying he can’t win but I feel the price of 5/4 is too short especially as the form doesn’t stand out that much. I am backing 2 against it, on a line through Agitare, CELTIC HIGH KING has a similar chance to favourite on last season’s form as both of them had beaten Agitare by exactly same distance over this c&d. He finished 2 1/4 lengths 4th behind re-opposing So Suave in handicap on reappearance and is 5 lbs better off so could go well if coming on for that run. O’Brien hasn’t won this race since 2002, though he hasn’t had many runners in this to be fair. Other one I like is MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS, previously with O’Brien, he made a winning stable debut for Jessica Harrington at Naas 3 weeks ago, form of that race is a bit mixed, 2nd, 3rd & 5th have been beaten at shortish prices but 6th & 7th have won. Harrington’s horses have been improving on 2nd start in past month, so good chance there is more to come from him. Her only previous runner in this race finished 2nd @ 6/1. Although you wouldn’t think draw would make a difference in small field over a mile, data suggests middle stalls are favoured (both my selections are drawn in middle), of 40 races over c&d with field size of exactly 7, 24 races have been won by the middle 3 stalls, on today’s going (good to firm) it’s 9 out of 13 (LSP +19) winners coming from middle 3 stalls. Of my two, I slightly prefer Masteroffoxhounds, but splitting stake equally.

Selections - Celtic High King (7/1) & Masteroffoxhounds (11/2)

Good luck.

Non runner. No replacement.

LSP: -1.40 (win), -8.30 (place)

5:15 Leicester - what a poor race, but most of these will struggle to win even at this level. It’s hard to believe but INDEPENDENCE DAY was getting placed at Group 3/Listed level at 2, a record of 2 from 39 and 2 years since his last win shows he fell a long way below that early potential. He is well handicapped though and on his day he can be too good for this lot, hopefully he will get the strong pace that he needs today. Wiff Waff is another that looks well handicapped. Dahik & Teepee Time both are badly out of form, between them they have run 5 times over last 3 weeks and beaten a total of 3 runners, but on ratings they can’t be completely ruled out in such a bad race. Independence Day looks the safest option to finish in at least first 3 though.

Selection - Independence Day @ 4/1

Good luck.

Well done, Finley. Couple of nice winners with two more still to run.

Drifted to 22/1, and never in it.

LSP: -1.40 (win), -8.30 (place)

Well done again, great strike rate.

Brilliant on Saturday, Finley. Good luck today, especially with You’re Cool as I have also backed it.

Thanks everyone.

5:00 Thirsk - Sambucca Spirit is in good form, and it will be surprising if he is not in first 3 but he is not really an each way price. In a race like this I want an each way option, so have backed YOU’RE COOL, 10 times winner on the all weather but 0-23 on turf (placed 6 times including twice at 25/1) so it’s a bit of long shot but he is 20 lbs lower than his AW mark. I like to research if the trainer has done something similar in past, and I found one that has similarities - last year Derek Shaw ran Hammer Gun, who had been an all weather specialist till then, at Doncaster 3 days after he had been well beaten on all weather and took advantage of 18 lbs lower turf mark as the horse won after being backed from 22/1 down to 8/1. This is selection’s 4th run since joining Shaw from the now retired John Balding, ran ok on first two runs but tailed off at Kempton last time so that’s a bit of question mark. Shaw does particularly well with horses he gets from other trainers on their 4th run - strike rate of 9.03% (13 from 144) on 4th run compared to 4.84% on 1st, 2.89% on 2nd, 4.97% on 3rd runs. Splitting the runners by price on 4th run it’s 13 from 78 (+44 LSP) if priced under 20/1, 0 from 66 if priced 20/1 or over, so market is clearly important. Small move so far today to 14/1 from 20/1, but Bet365 is still 18/1. Not a confident bet because of the poor run last time, but hopefully he can bounce back to form as this is not a strong race.

Selection - You’re Cool @ 14/1

Good luck.

Well done, going well.

Well done mate. Had to work hard but won well in end.

I haven’t been more pleased to see a horse win, Kafee has ended one of my longest losing runs ever. Betfair SPs 9.88 win, 2.0 place.

It hasn’t yet made up for my poor results over last two and half weeks, but hopefully won’t have to wait too long for another winner.

LSP: -0.40 (win), -7.30 (place)

Thanks Doubler.

Losing run continues and stands at 18 now, it seems like it will never end.

LSP: -8.84 (win), -8.25 (place)

12:45 Windsor - Rideson sets a good standard, but has finished 2nd five times including 4 times as favourite so I am taking her on. KAFEE finished midfield on her debut in a Newbury maiden in autumn (6 winners have come from the race), and improved when finishing 3rd at Wolverhampton last time. Dam half sister to useful miler Temptress (finished 2nd in Royal Hunt Cup) so I think step up to a mile will suit. Andrew Balding has a very good record in maidens on 3rd start, 18% strike rate 3rd time (107 from 596, +40 LSP), it improves to 36% (53 from 149, +57 LSP) if they were placed on their previous run.

Selection - Kafee @ 6/1

Good luck.

Unplaced again.

LSP: -7.84 (win), -7.25 (place)

5:15 Curragh

Very competitive 3yo handicap, it’s tough to even get it to a shortlist as more than half the field has some sort of chance.

Shortlist - Elusive King, Flaming Moon, Latin Five, The King Of Kells, Never Before, Dark Vader

I have backed LATIN FIVE (11/1), one of 7 distance winners in the field, he scored that win in a nursery by 2 lengths over this c&d from 6 lbs lower mark than today, before finishing a respectable 3rd in the Birdcatcher at Naas. Reappearance run was disappointing over 7 here two weeks ago, finishing down the field, went off at 50/1 from 18/1, market more positive today, has gone from 25/1 into 11/1 so hopefully he will improve from last run as he needs to. Declan McDonogh rides for first time, he is 5 from 33 (+6.2 LSP) in handicaps for Joseph O’Brien over the past year.

Selection - Latin Five @ 11/1 (5 places)

Good luck.

Brilliant winner 28/1, well done.

Well done.

2 from 2. Well done mate.