BEST of the BETS

Unplaced.

LSP: -6.84 (win), -6.25 (place)

Here’s the one to avoid today

3:25 Doncaster - poor race, taken a chance on DANCING SPEED (7/1) in this. Still a maiden after 13 runs (only 2 places), one of those placings was last time on first run for Liam Bailey, finishing 3rd @ 16/1. Has dropped another 2 lbs so looks on a good mark. I think jockey booking is interesting, Tudhope has a good record at Doncaster, showing a level stakes profit for 7 out of last 8 seasons here, 0 from 8 (4 placed) so far this season. Trainer/jockey combination is 6 from 22 (3 others placed) with LSP of +16.50. I have one question mark about the step up to a mile as he has often weakened late on in his races in past, had a wind surgery before leaving his previous trainer, hopefully that would have helped. Spark Of War is another that could run well, 0-19 but on a low enough mark like the selection, and he stays further.

Selection - Dancing Speed @ 7/1

Good luck.

Great start, Systematic.

15 days without a winner now, frustrating thing is in most of the races winner is coming from my shortlist, it’s my final judgement from those 3-4 horses that’s letting me down, so trying to make changes to how I make my final choice. I will give it another week to see how it goes.

7:40 Bath

Possibles - Il Sicario, Princess Way, Test Valley, Waters Edge

I have gone with IL SICARIO (10/1), ex-Johnston horse, 0 from 12 (placed 5 times) on flat since joining Bill Turner, but to be fair only once or twice he has gone off at a single figure price. He has made his seasonal return over this c&d for last two seasons, finishing 2nd of 5 @ 14/1 (beaten 2 1/2 lengths) from mark of 70 two years ago, and last year finishing 3rd of 8 @ 25/1 (beaten 2 lengths) from mark of 66. Rated 63 now, he looks on a reasonable mark and will hopefully run well again first time. Also maybe interesting that this is the first time since joining Turner that he is not being ridden by an apprentice. Ryan Tate takes the ride today, he has 1 winner (@ 7/2 backed from 8/1) from 14 rides (5 others placed) for Turner, placed on both rides for trainer on Tuesday at prices of 80/1 & 10/1.

Selection - Il Sicario @ 10/1

Good luck.

4th.

LSP: -5.84 (win), -5.25 (place)

Well done Cork.

7:25 Windsor - TELL WILLIAM (11/2) won at Bath last August, and has run ok in two runs in better class since then, 2nd at Bath and 4th at Newbury on his return (6th horse from Newbury race has won since then). I think he should run well today dropping back down to class 5, and although still 7 lbs higher than his win last year he could improve as he is only a 4 year old.

Selection - Tell William @ 11/2 (4 places)

Good luck.

Shocked to hear this news. RIP.

Another one that should have won (went 1.14 in running), but didn’t, losing run up to 14 now. Place odds 2.02

LSP: -4.84 (win), -4.25 (place)

Great work again, KJ.

Well done yesterday, KJ, and good luck today.

Good luck. TL. I am also on Masked Identity, but the way my form is it will need extra bit of luck.

LSP: -3.84 (win), -5.22 (place)

Losing run at 13 now.

7:25 Kempton - MASKED IDENTITY (7/1) twice went close from higher marks on turf last season. Well beaten on 3 runs on all weather, including twice here, but all were in better class. He is 7 lbs lower than first of those runs, and this looks weak for a class 4 with a top rating of only 78. He is relatively unexposed so wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run better than recent efforts. Trainer is 9 from 43 (+22 LSP) in handicaps here, 8 from 19 (+31 LSP) when priced under 10/1.

Selection - Masked Identity @ 7/1

Good luck.

Drifted to 8/1, and unplaced (5th)

LSP: -2.84 (win), -4.22 (place)

2:30 Roscommon - SECRET WIZARD (18/1) hasn’t won since March 2019, but is now 13 lbs lower than that win, and none of the others have been winning recently either - total of just 2 wins within last year between them. Finished down the field at Leopardstown a week ago on first run after the break from a wide draw. Not sure about jockey as he has only had 2 winners from 90 odd rides, but at least he is taking 10 lbs off. Only 3rd run since joining new trainer, and looks well handicapped on old form so could run well.

Selection - Secret Wizard @ 18/1 (4 places)

Good luck.

There could be a few qualifiers today.

The 3 listed below are currently in the price range, but some others could shorten later.

My Kinda Day (12:45 Redcar)
Entrancing (2:45 Redcar)
Qaaraat (2:05 Wolverhampton) - I have already backed against this one.

Here’s today’s loser.

2:05 Wolverhampton - favourite Qaaraat usually runs well but his win rate is very poor, just 2 wins from 45 (placed 11 times) including 0 from 9 (placed 4 times) here, all the Wolverhampton runs were over 5f so he is at least trying something new today, and Cam Hardie has a very good record on favourites, but still price of 5/4 for a horse that doesn’t win often is too short for me. Antony Brittain also has the 2nd fav One One Seven, he has won here before but not in a handicap, went close off same mark in handicap here in September 2019 but been well beaten twice since then off similar marks, and trainer rarely wins with his 2nd strings. My selection is the next horse in betting PUSHKIN MUSEUM (7/2), who is bit of a specialist over this c&d, his last 5 wins (from 19 runs over c&d) have come over c&d from ratings of 58, 60, 60, 60 & 54 (latest first), runs off 56 today. In fact he has only been beaten once over c&d when rated 60 or under, and that was when he was a 28/1 shot returning from a break. Last of his wins was in November 2018, and he is a 9 year old now, so that’s the one question mark as at this type of age sometimes they have just had enough, I hope that’s not the case. Surprisingly, Adam Kirby has not ridden him very often, record of 3513 from the 4 times he has been on board.

Jeans Maite is bit of an unknown, with just 5 runs all at big prices, and all but one of those runs at Southwell, she showed improved form on handicap debut to be 4th at 50/1 so I wouldn’t completely rule her out, but up against 6 course winners here won’t be easy.

Selection - Pushkin Museum @ 7/2

Good luck.

Amazing consistency, very well done.

This is what happens when you are going through a bad run. King Ragnar went as low as 1.09 in running but still managed to lose. Place price (1.66). 11 losers in a row now.

LSP: -1.84 (win), -3.22 (place)

2:15 Newmarket - good handicap, and I think the winner will come from top 3-4 in betting and that’s where I am concentrating. Form of KING RAGNAR’s 3rd over 6f here last time has worked out pretty well with the runner up easily winning a Listed race at Sandown next time. Step up to 7f shouldn’t be a problem so I think he will be thereabouts. It’s a competitive market so price should hold and I am hoping he will drift a little.

Selection - King Ragnar @ 11/4

Good luck.

Stone last. Other Sea The Stars horse in the race wins.

LSP: -0.84 (win), -3.85 (place)

Well done Joe.