BEST of the BETS

1:40 Limerick - Great Bear was beaten only 3 lengths by Triumph winner Burning Victory on debut, so really should be up to winning a weak race like this, but I am still not backing it at 2/5. 2nd fav Cafe Con Leche is only rated 113 but has to give weight away so I don’t fancy him. Marvel Fan makes her Irish debut for Tony Martin, she had lots of hurdling experience in France, her form there isn’t anything special but keep an eye on betting, 5/1 currently, if she shortens to 4/1 or under I would expect a good run and she might even win. I have done a small bet on one at bigger price, BLACKJACK BOY. Eric McNamara does occasionally get big priced winners on debut, and this one has a nice pedigree, related to couple of bumper winners and dam unraced half sister to Back In Front (Grade 1 winner at Cheltenham & Punchestown festivals). Not expecting anything as he will need to be pretty good to win if the favourite runs to form of his last run, but hopefully run well.

Selection - Blackjack Boy @ 20/1

Good luck.

2nd, but did better than the favourite.

LSP: -3.04 (win), -11.83 (place)

Bet 9

Rath An Iuir (3:45 Newcastle)

LSP: -4.00

Wins - 3/1

Just for fun tried these three against the field - Financial Outcome, looks impossible task from a stone out of the handicap but I think he will like the step up in trip. Prime Venture, 4 lbs lower than when 4th in this race last year. Just Your Type, proven stayer over these trips.

Only fun bets.

Thanks everyone.

3:45 Newcastle - not easy to oppose Ladronne who won by a wide margin at Southwell 6 days ago, but at bigger price I have backed RATH AN IUIR based mainly on his c&d win in a novice hurdle in December. He beat the penalised Orrisdale (now rated 122) by 5 lengths, literal reading of that form suggests selection needs to improve 2-3 lbs on that effort but after just 3 runs that is not impossible. Ran well last time when a close 2nd (probably would have finished 3rd if the leader didn’t run out) at Doncaster last time with 22 lengths back to next horse so form looks solid enough. Rose Dobbin’s record here in handicaps isn’t good though, just 1 win (6 placed) from 37 in handicap hurdles, compare that to 4 from 31 in novice hurdles. I have doubts because of that, but taking a chance due to c&d form, hopefully he will run well.

Selection - Rath An Iuir @ 13/2

Good luck.

LSP: -2.04 (win), -13.64 (place)

It’s been a miserable couple of months with my betting, but when they win like this, that’s what keeps you going. Cheeky win, lost count of how many times Spencer looked behind.

Another rubbish selection yesterday.

LSP: -24.84 (win), -16.77 (place)

5:00 Lingfield - Fortune Finder seems well fancied on debut, but I have backed another newcomer PALE KING. Related to several winners including Dinner’s Out who was placed at Listed level (10 furlongs) on the all weather in France. Should handle the surface, not sure about distance but hopefully he will stay. David Simcock usually has them ready first time, his strike rate on debuts is 8.8% but goes up to 19.6% when ridden by Jamie Spencer (18 from 92, +18 LSP). Similarly, at Lingfield it’s 5 from 57 (-23 LSP) on debut but 3 from 8 (3 others placed), +17 LSP when they are ridden by Spencer.

Selection - Pale King @ 14/1

Good luck.

Thanks Stevie. I have already backed Dr. Newland’s horse in the maiden, but had Cherry Cola on my shortlist so will have a little saver on her. Cheers.

Bet 8

Operatic Export (2:25 Doncaster)

LSP: -3.00

Wins - 3/1

Unplaced

LSP: -23.84 (win), -15.77 (place)

2:25 Doncaster - OPERATIC EXPORT was just about best of these on the flat, having been placed from a mark of 75. Made her hurdling debut in a Listed race at Aintree, finishing 5th of 14 (beaten 26 lengths), disappointing next time when last as 2/1 2nd fav in race won by Mick Pastor (10th in the Fred Winter yesterday) but may have been affected by being hampered early in the race. Did much better at same track last month when 2nd @ 25/1. Had two of these, Gilka & Tronada, behind her that day and I see no reason why she can’t finish ahead of them again. Gilka was only a neck behind and it being her first run over hurdles she might improve but Skelton usually has them ready so not sure how much improvement can be expected 2nd time. Champagne Terri could run well if fit after a break, and at bigger prices Cherry Cola is an interesting runner - rare runner for Sheena West at Doncaster (she also has one in 5:05 race), she has sent only two in last 17 years, both finished 2nd at 7/1 & 10/1, she is a winner on flat off 65 and can’t be ruled out if she takes well to jumping, but might not be easy against those with hurdling experience so I have picked Tronada for the forecast spot.

Selection - Operatic Export @ 4/1

Good luck.

What do you think of his chances today? Sheena West rarely sends one up to Doncaster, only 2 in last 17 years, both finished 2nd.

Bet 7

Shadows Girl (3:05 Huntingdon)

LSP: -2.00

Wins - 3/1

Pulled up.

LSP: -22.84 (win), -14.77 (place)

3:05 Huntingdon - Shadows Girl @ 10/1

Good luck.

Bet 6

Soul Kaliber (5:05 Stratford)

LSP: -1.00

Wins - 3/1

Thanks everyone.

5:05 Stratford - favourite looks strong, but I have taken a chance on ex-Gigginstown horse SOUL KALIBER here. Record of 0 from 16 (1 placing) under rules, but in those runs he clearly did better when the going was soft or heavy, and his sire Marienbard’s all 6 winners (from 39 runners) since December 2018 have come in testing conditions (0 from 34 on drier going), so I think he will at least be suited by the going, favourite also likes these conditions but some of the others may not. Darren Edwards, along with Zac Baker, is one of the most experienced amateur riders, and in hunter chases he has ridden more winners than the rest of jockeys in this race put together. Selection won 5 times in point to points last year, and possibly needed the run when only 6th on his return last time (in January). All in all, he looks a good each way bet to me at the price.

Selection - Soul Kaliber @ 12/1

Good luck.

Well done KJ, been a good day for the forum today.

Well done, hope you did the forecast too.

Very easy winner despite drifting to 3/1. Good run from Fame And Hope too, finishing 3rd.

LSP: -21.84 (win), -13.77 (place)

Great spot, well done.