BEST of the BETS

Bet 15

Neverushacon (1:45 Punchestown)

LSP: -9.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15

Thanks, Fuzzy.

Will keep trying.

1:45 Punchestown - Enda Bolger has a brilliant record in this race, having won 9 of its 14 runnings, and has a great chance with Yanworth, but it isn’t always his first string that wins. Out of those 9 wins, 1 was when he had just 1 runner in the race. Of other 8, 4 were won by his 1st string (LSP -2.25) and 4 by his 2nd string (+10.50), so JOSIES ORDERS cannot be ignored especially as he has finished 2nd (beaten short head) and 1st in this race for last two years. He needs to bounce back to form though as two runs this season have been poor. Other one I like in this is NEVERUSHCON, who was beaten only a length and half by Yanworth here in November but is 8 lbs better off today so must have a chance at the weights. He also ran fairly well at Cheltenham in December, finishing 5th when both Yanworth and Josies Orders failed to complete.

Out of the two, I prefer Neverushacon on form, and 11 of the 14 runnings of this race have been won by horses priced no bigger than 5/1. But given Josies Orders’ good record in this race, I have split my stake equally on the two.

Selections - Neverushacon (11/4) & Josies Orders (11/1), 50/50 stake

Good luck.

Well done.

Only 5th, really disappointed with that result as the horse that had been beaten 8 lengths by selection last time goes and wins. I thought winner would finish close but 7 lbs alone cannot be enough to turn around 8 lbs deficit in a 7 furlongs race, and I didn’t think there were any other obvious factors but there you go. Results like that make you think why bother with form. 4 horses on my shortlist finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th but still can’t find a way to pick the winners from shortlist.

LSP: -15.00 (win), -11.16 (place)

Two winners out of 4, good profit. Well done Brian.

Never looked in doubt, well done.

Nice placer.

Estibdaad
Pike Corner Cross
Amaretto
Contract Kid
Tepui
CRITICAL THINKING (Nap)
A Go Go

Thanks.

Bet 14

Critical Thinking (4:15 Lingfield)

LSP: -8.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15

4:15 Lingfield - CRITICAL THINKING has returned to form since teaming up with jockey Thomas Greatrex, with a 2nd, 1st & 3rd in 3 runs, and he still remains fairly treated on old form. Beaten half a length last time but that looked a competitive race with first 4 all in good form (winner was completing a hat trick, 2nd had finished 1st & 2nd on two previous runs and 4th had won his last 3 races). Selection does have better record at Wolverhampton (7f) but has won over this c&d too, his last run over this c&d (January 2019) he was beaten a short head in class 4 from a mark of 75, runs off 68 today so on that form he still looks well handicapped. One worry I have is that from stall 2 here, he could find himself boxed in and will need luck in running. Also there is a potential improver in Bugler Bob who could be a big danger, he won when stepped up to 7 furlongs last time and could still have more improvement over this trip. I think the winner will come from above two, veteran Pour La Victoire has place chances and Knowing Glance, who finished 8 lengths behind selection last time is entitled to finish closer from 7 lbs better terms today.

Selection - Critical Thinking @ 10/3, small reverse f/c with Bugler Bob

Good luck.

4th, got paid for 4th place on Betfair Sportsbook, but for this thread it’s recorded as a complete loss.

LSP: -14.00 (win), -10.16 (place)

Bet 13

Blanketontheground (2:55 Navan)

LSP: -7.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15

2:55 Navan - difficult race to solve as most of these are still unexposed and it’s a case of which one can improve more. I have gone with BLANKETONTHEGROUND, who improved when 2nd on her handicap debut last time. Admittedly, that race didn’t appear to have much strength in depth but the winner had been in good form and finished 2nd upped to Grade 2 handicap next time. Selection does need to improve but could do so, as trainer often gets a win within first few runs in handicaps. Bay Ambition is another one that needs serious consideration, she was in 3rd place when falling two out in a similar race here in November, Gavin Cromwell has lots of runners here today but this could be his best chance. It was a tough choice but in these conditions I generally prefer to go for horses that are carrying less weight, and didn’t want to back more than one as this is the kind of race where you could back 4-5 horses and still not find the winner.

Selection - Blanketontheground @ 11/2

Good luck.

Thanks, KJ. First two placed 3rd but last one unplaced, almost exactly money back so no damage done.

Only 3rd & 6th.

LSP: -13.00 (win), -9.16 (place)

Good point about the draw, Joe. It’s not a bad long shot, her only win came over this c&d just over a year ago @ 66/1, from 1 lb lower under this jockey, he has only ridden her twice. Was drawn 7 of 13 and had a couple of these behind. Definite chance of finishing in first 7 at least.

I have already backed King Athelstan and Harbour Quay in this, but good luck with yours.

Friday

Bet 12

Keel Over (1:20 Sandown)

LSP: -6.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15 — AKD

Meeting abandoned

New selection - King Athelstan (4:40 Lingfield)

Sandown off, so had a bet at Lingfield now.

4:40 Lingfield

Shortlisted - King Athelstan, It’s Nice Tobe Nice, Harbour Quay, Famous Destiny, Mistress Nellie

KING ATHELSTAN is in very good form, having won over c&d two runs ago and then failing by only a nose last time. Last defeat was against a very well handicapped c&d winner and the 3rd horse (1 length behind) had 3 places from 4 previous runs at the course, so form looks very solid. Gary Moore is in good form, and his runners are often worth following here when strong in betting. It’s Nice Tobe Nice had run fairly well on her debut here last year, is on a low enough mark and could go close if coming on for recent run. HARBOUR QUAY is 7 lbs lower than when beaten 4 lengths over c&d in March last year (was with a different trainer then), and recent runs over 10 furlongs strongly suggest he wants to return to this trip, so he is a big danger. Form of his trainer could be a concern, just 1 winner in last 4 months (35 runners).

Split stake (70/30) on King Athelstan (3/1) & Harbour Quay (6/1)

Good luck.

Friday

Bet 12

Keel Over (1:20 Sandown)

LSP: -6.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15

Backed one early for tomorrow.

1:20 Sandown - I hope I don’t regret deserting Faustinovick, whom I backed last time, but I was disappointed with how easily he weakened. While drop back in trip may help, lumping 12 stone 4 in this going won’t be easy so I am taking him on. I have taken a chance with KEEL OVER, who is yet to win under rules but showed some promise in 4 runs over hurdles in 2018, making the frame on 3 occasions. Returns from an absence of 435 days now, but long absences aren’t always a problem with David Bridgwater. Bridgwater has a very good record of 9 wins from 61 (+47 LSP) with horses returning from an absence of more than a year, also won with Fort Gabriel (16/1) last month who was returning from 500+ days absence. Another plus point is the record of bottom weights on heavy going. From last 14 runnings of this race, 4 have been run on heavy, and the record of horses carrying bottom weight in those 4 races is as follows - pulled up @ 8/1, won @ 10/3, 2nd @ 16/1, won @ 25/1.

Selection - Keel Over @ 18/1

Good luck.