BEST of the BETS

Brilliant at Leicester today, Brian, 5 winners from 5. I wish I had done them in a multi, hope you did.

Correction - LSP place should read -9.68

Drifted to 5/1 and 2nd again.

LSP: -12.00 (win), -9.48 (place)

LICKPENNY LARRY (Nap)
Everlanes
Caltex
First Flow
Kingston Mimosa
O Ceallaigh

Thanks.

Bet 11

Lickpenny Larry (2:00 Leicester)

LSP: -5.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15

Badayel won as he should have that price. I don’t regret leaving it though.

2:00 Leicester - LICKPENNY LARRY was very unlucky last time, getting caught on the run in having traded at 1/100 in running. He can’t be blamed for it though, he got very tired in testing conditions over a trip that stretches his stamina, and he was giving 20 lbs to the winner (a gamble from Gary Moore yard at Fontwell). He is up 4 lbs and again has to give over a stone in weight to most of these, but at least this is a more suitable trip as he drops back to 2 miles, I think he can go well providing he has recovered from exertions of last run (18 days ago). This is a weak race for a class 4 and not much better than the one he won at Uttoxeter in November. His record is 3 wins from 4 when in first two in betting.

At bigger price, DUN BAY CREEK is not without a chance, and I will have a saver on him. He had shown absolutely nothing since winning a novice hurdle for Alan King 3 seasons ago, but gave some encouragement when 2nd @ 50/1 (albeit a well beaten 2nd) on his first handicap chase in December. Was disappointing again next time when only 6th of 12. But he has been dropped another 4 lbs and is still unexposed over fences so has an outside chance.

I have backed these to an 80/20 split stake.

Selections - Lickpenny Larry @ 7/2 (0.8 pt), Dun Bay Creek @ 14/1 (0.2 pt)

Good luck.

Wow! Very well done.

First one in, well done mate.

No movement in price even on the exchange, so leaving the race alone, just watching.

Adjutant
Love Your Work
BADAYEL (Nap)
Cosmelli
Jorvik Prince
Gorgeous General

Thanks.

Bet 10

Badayel (2:55 Southwell)

LSP: -6.00

Wins: 2/1

Nice 20/1 winner yesterday.

Giving my thoughts on the race below, but will only back selection if it drifts to evens or bigger.

2:55 Southwell - it is a difficult one, BADAYEL has easily the best form but it’s hard to back a horse with confidence at odds on that keeps finishing 2nd (interestingly, his brother Laikaparty also seems to have same problem, finished 2nd 3 times before winning at 4th attempt). Selection has finished 2nd on all 4 of his runs, the two horses that beat him most recently are now rated 85 & 82, so it can be argued that perhaps he has just been unlucky to come up against good horses and this looks his easiest opportunity so far. His main rival in betting is Snow Space, who finished 13 lengths behind the selection on debut. He could leave that run well behind him, in a similar way to Lion Tower did last month for same owners - he ran similarly to Snow Space on debut at Wolverhampton but won a few days later at Southwell on 2nd start. My problem with Snow Space is the drop to 6 furlongs, his dam was a 10f winner and related to Great Voltigeur (12f) winner Centennial, there are no winners at less than a mile in the immediate family. Only other runner with experience in this field is Ghost Buy, stablemate of the fav, but he is rated only 50 (24 lbs below fav) and has finished no better than 5th on 3 previous visits here. Other two are newcomers, and newcomers don’t have a great record in these 4yo+ races. Mick Appleby (trainer of Bluelion) has just 3 wins from 182 runners (including 0 from 26 here) on debut, though he did win with a 33/1 newcomer recently, and Bluelion does at least have pedigree for fibresand so I wouldn’t completely rule him out. Appleby also trained both his dam and dam’s sister (dam never ran here but her sister won here 3 times from marks of up to 79).

Sorry about the long post and even then have no definite selection at the end, but I wanted to explain why it is a difficult one. Badayel is a clear form choice, and I think at evens or better he would be worth backing even with the risks attached. But not at the 4/7, 8/13 currently on offer, Snow Space or even Bluelion may offer better value currently.

Good luck.

2nd behind the short priced favourite, other horse mentioned Alveda ran well for 4th.

LSP: -11.00 (win), -10.48 (place)

Bet 9

Night Voyager (2:05 Chelmsford)

LSP: -5.00

Wins: 2/1

Thanks, Fuzzy.

2:05 Chelmsford - I had picked NIGHT VOYAGER for the race at Southwell on Sunday before that meeting got abandoned, and here I am drawn towards him again in what looks a weak maiden. Finished 6th of 11 (beaten 4 lengths) @ 4/1 on debut, that form isn’t anything special but the winner was rated 73, and 4th and 5th who were half length ahead of selection are rated 67, so NV’s performance can be rated about 65-66. With the usual 2nd time improvement, he can be expected to run to low 70s today which may well be enough to win a race like this. There are couple of interesting newcomers, including the short priced favourite from Archie Watson, Watson usually has a good record on debut but his 3 newcomers so far this year have been poor, all 3 had one thing in common that all 3 drifted in betting, 3/1 to 5/1 (finished 7th), 7/4 to 11/4 (8th), 4/1 to 12/1 (last), so will have to see what happens with this one in betting today.

At big prices, I thought Alveda was really overpriced last night at 66/1, she is 25/1 now which is closer to what it should be. She finished 7th on her debut 3 months ago, race was won by a newcomer and horses that finished 2nd to 6th had all made the frame on their previous run so it probably wasn’t a bad race, she was beaten 12 lengths though so does need to improve plenty but it’s not impossible, but as I said the price has gone now.

Selection - Night Voyager @ 11/4

Good luck.

Nice work, Brian.

Drifted to 2/1, but won comfortably.

LSP: -10.00 (win), -10.92 (place)

Well done mate.

Bet 8

Clap Your Hands (6:10 Wolverhampton)

LSP: -7.00