BEST of the BETS

Seemed to be travelling well in front 3, but found nothing and weakened right out of it to tail off, most disappointing.

LSP: -7.39 (win), -8.72 (place)

Bet 26

Shimba Hills (3:40 Newcastle)

LSP: -5.83

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6,5/4

Thanks, Fuzzybear.

3:40 Newcastle - a few of these come here in good form, but SHIMBA HILLS looks to have more positives than anything else. He took advantage of a low mark when winning well a similar race under this jockey at Lingfield last time. That win came after a gap of 3 years that had seen him drop 34 lbs in the handicap. But to be fair he had very little racing in two previous seasons, only 2 runs in 2017/18, and 3 in 2018/19, has run more regularly this season and that has seen him get into more of a rhythm, had placed on two of the 3 runs prior to the win last time. Has been raised 7 lbs for that win but still remains 22 lbs below his highest winning mark so looks well handicapped. Pretty consistent with a 41% career place strike rate which is good as he has done a lot of his racing in one class above this. I think track will suit, and could be interesting that he has been sent such a long way. Lawney Hill has had only 1 previous runner at Newcastle, that was over 8 years ago. It was unplaced but was in a Listed race, I think it’s more interesting when a small stable sends one a long way for a small race like this.

One unknown in this race is LEVEROCK LASS, who could be a potential danger, only had 5 runs, well beaten on 4 of those runs but she won the other one (novice hurdle). Admittedly that race was gifted to her a bit with the long odds on favourite failing to complete, but even so she won easily from a horse rated 96 (who has also won from that mark since), and as her own mark has now dropped to 96 it will be dangerous to ignore her chance. She is priced 12/1 at the moment, which I think is a bit short given her inconsistent profile but if she drifts to close to 20/1 tomorrow then I won’t be able to resist a little saver on her. Seapoint went close here last time, although up 2 lbs she has place claims again but price too short for win purposes.

Selection - Shimba Hills @ 5/1, possible saver on Leverock Lass

Good luck.

Nice to have a close finish go my way for a change lol. Black Pirate won but only just, Wee Goldie was the only disappointment of race for me finishing only 8th. The two big outsiders Artic Mann (150/1) and Six One Nine (33/1) finished in first 6 as predicted, didn’t have a bet on them unfortunately but 40/1 and 33/1 was available for 6 places on them this morning.

LSP: -6.39 (win), -7.72 (place)

Well done.

Bet 25

Black Pirate (3:45 Kelso)

LSP: -7.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

Thanks KJ.

3:45 Kelso - this would normally be a confident bet for me but the way my luck is at the moment I half expect for something to go wrong, so I am being careful. It’s really hard to find a fault with BLACK PIRATE’s form, only 1 defeat in bumpers that came when giving weight to a horse now rated 137 over hurdles. Returned from a 600+ day absence to win on hurdling debut at Wetherby last month. Brian Hughes has had a brilliant past week, LSP of +33 from just 25 rides over last 7 days, that included 2 winners (from 2 rides) for James Ewart, and Hughes has also won two previous runnings of this race. Main rival in betting Ebony Jewel is rated 122 after a win on 3rd try over hurdles last time, he is respected but I just feel if my selection runs to his best then he can rate higher than that. Hurdling debutant Wee Goldie was disappointing last time but has good form in two earlier bumpers including a close 2nd on debut here (winner of that race rated 115 now), I expect him to improve now hurdling and has good place claims getting weight from top two. I think these 3 will fill first 3 places. A couple of others that I think will improve from their hurdling debut efforts are Artic Mann & Six One Nine, both are 66/1 and as this is a really good race it will be hard for them to make first 3 but could finish in first half dozen and could be of interest in extra places market depending on the price.

Selection - Black Pirate @ 6/4, fun forecast with Wee Goldie

Good luck.

Some nice winners there, Valuefinder, well done,

Good luck mate.

Favourite ran a poor race, finishing 4th (guess what I did, yes, backed it to finish in first 3 lol).

What I am finding funny is that 3 people have voted on this since after the race finished, and only one of the 3 has voted for the winner lol.

Yes, been thinking about that, might give it a try. Another thing is price movements are not easy to predict, at the time I placed my bet today the two horses were 7/2 & 7/1, not a huge difference I thought so went with the one I fancied more. They ended up at SPs of 9/4 & 12/1, if I had known that would have opted for the bigger price.

Good luck mate.

Lol Peregrine, I have calmed down a bit now, tomorrow’s another day eh.

What made it worse was my selection went 1.1 in running and seemingly had the race at his mercy, winner was 420 in running and looked most unlikely but I had the feeling then that if anything catches mine that will be the one, it was agony watching the run in.

How unlucky does one have to get. You spend hours working out a race and get it down to 2 runners, and for the umpteenth time the one you leave out of the two wins. Fu Fu comes from a long way back to win it at the finish @ 12/1, didn’t even have a saver forecast today. It’s enough to make you want to give up.

I had a bad feeling after I left out the 16/1 winner on 1st day of the year, hope it doesn’t go like this whole year.

LSP: -7.71 (win), -7.94 (place)

Bet 24

Fenlons Court (1:50 Fontwell)

LSP: -6.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

1:50 Fontwell - risky one, but FENLONS COURT looks interesting on return to hurdles after 5 disappointing runs over fences. Only 1 win over hurdles too from 13 starts so strike rate not great but that win came over this c&d (October 2018) from 11 lbs higher mark than today. 33 lbs (yes 33) better off with Hier Encore, who was 2nd behind him that day. So yes it’s risky because of low strike rate and lack of recent form, but is very well handicapped and could be interesting that there is money for it today. Fu Fu is a 9 race maiden but has some form here that gives her a chance and she is on a low enough mark so could be a danger.

Selection - Fenlons Court @ 7/2

Good luck.

Don’t worry, mate, you were only passing the message.

I voted for Voi, so you can cross that off lol. But she usually runs in one class above this and is a worthy favourite imo. Conrad Allen’s record with favs at Kempton isn’t bad 11131123 (+5.88 LSP), admittedly 6 of those runs were with one horse.

Well done Stainless, close match, level on points I think but you have clinched it with your nap. Good luck for the rest of tournament.

Thanks for running the competition, Mugz.

Ran well despite the big drift out to 5/1, went 1.54 in running but found one too good, well clear of the rest so not a bad run but badly need a winner soon for this thread.

LSP: -6.71 (win), -8.54 (place)