BEST of the BETS

Thanks, Fuzzybear.

That evens looked a bit of gift as he won very comfortably in the end. Good performance, I wouldn’t get too carried away by the winning margin though as I think the other horse probably got tired towards the end.

LSP: -1.71 (win), -7.36 (place)

Bet 18

Aye Right (2:00 Newcastle)

LSP: -1.75

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8

Thanks, Calvert.

2:00 Newcastle - disappointing turnout with just 2 runners, and a bit of question mark against both. Probably should leave the race alone, but I can’t resist a little bet on a horse that is 8 lbs better off in weights and is evens in a 2 horse race. Of course AYE RIGHT’s rating of 146 is based on hurdles form but he was running well for a long way before unseating on chasing debut behind Sam Spinner. I think he should run well now dropped in class. On negative side, Harriet Graham is 0 from 21 in novice chases but this is the best horse she has had, he gave his stable a first bumper win in 14 years, and then became the first to win a novice hurdle for them in 10 years, hopefully he can add another first for them. Mulcahys Hill won a good novice at Cheltenham on his 5th chase start before pulling up over National fences last time, he has had a wind surgery since then so could improve. But he is rated 2 lbs lower than selection and has to concede 6 lbs, stable had the 2nd (4/5 favourite) in this race last year.

Selection - Aye Right @ 1/1

Good luck.

Thanks Peregrine, a short priced winner after 14 consecutive losers doesn’t really deserve praise but hopefully this is the turning point.

Winner lacked fluency in his jumping but no serious errors, and improved as the race went on. Maybe he was a bit lucky that the two leaders fell but had almost drawn level at the time so I feel he would have won anyway. Can win again when stepped up in trip.

LSP: -2.41 (win), -7.36 (place)

Bet 17

Glinger Flame (1:50 Ayr)

LSP: -3.62

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2

Had every chance, but weakened very quickly after the last.

LSP: -4.27 (win), -8.02 (place)

1:50 Ayr - very little between Dali Mail and GLINGER FLAME, but I feel the latter’s greater stamina could be an advantage in these testing conditions. And with all 3 of his main rivals carrying penalties, he is best in at weights.

Selection - Glinger Flame @ 15/8

Good luck.

Bet 16

Faustinovick (4:05 Ascot)

LSP: -2.62

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2

4:05 Ascot - I picked FAUSTINOVICK last night when it was around 3/1, it’s gone favourite now so value is probably gone but I am not going to change my mind. It is a good race, Falco Blitz has every chance despite the penalty but I feel one or two of others who have had lesser racing have the potential to improve past him, hopefully my selection is one of those. Trainer had the 3rd in this race last year with Russian Hawk, Faustinovick’s form looks slightly better despite the fact that he is yet to win so hopefully he will run well. At bigger prices, I wouldn’t rule out Killer Clown either, and the mare Bit On The Side has run in a couple of good bumpers, so a good race to watch. All 5 runnings of this have been won by favourites or joint favourites though, hoping that trend continues with Faustinovick.

Selection - Faustinovick @ 15/8

Good luck.

Missed out on 4th place by narrowest of margins, and surprise surprise other horse on my shortlist Adnap wins backed from 7/1 to 7/2. I went with the usual draw bias and just to prove me wrong all the races so far tonight have been won by high drawn horses.

LSP: -3.27 (win), -7.02 (place)

Nice winner.

Nice winner, well done.

Yes, I use Horseracebase, happy to help if you need to look up anything.

A few others I liked at Dundalk, not done singles on these but included in e/w yankee for a bit of interest.

5:30 - Secret Wizard (11/1)
7:00 - Bucky Larson (4/1)
7:30 - Laurel Grove (6/1)

Bet 15

Red Avenger (6:30 Dundalk)

LSP: -1.62

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2

Thanks, Peregrine. Let’s hope the losing run doesn’t last too long.

6:30 Dundalk

My shortlist - Munaajaat (non runner now), Adnap, Red Avenger

Munaajaat out of the race, makes my choice a little easier. Dark Magic and RED AVENGER have finished next to each other all 3 times they have met here in last couple of months, Dark Magic has come out just ahead last twice but weight terms are exactly same and draw positions very similar to when Red Avenger finished ahead by a length and half on 29th November. Of course the younger Dark Magic is likely to improve but at prices of 2/1 and 10/1 I have to go with the bigger priced one. Selection ran poorly last time, but had high draw as an excuse. He is a 3 times c&d winner from 18 runs and out of those 18 runs the 10 times he has been drawn in stalls 1 to 4 he has finished out of the frame only twice, so with some bookies offering 4 places on this race I think he is a good each way chance. Adnap showed much improved form here last time (ran in same race as Red Avenger, 4 lbs worse off for finishing 9 lengths ahead), but draw makes things a bit harder today. It’s not impossible to win from a high draw here but it’s certainly a disadvantage, it’s a question of how much of a hindrance it would be but Adnap’s chance cannot be ignored. Silk Cravat also has a chance but is too short a price considering he is yet unproven over a mile so isn’t for me. It’s hard to make a case for any outside the top 4 in betting, though it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if return to a mile sparked a return to form for Little Camacho.

Selection - Red Avenger @ 10/1 (4 places Paddy Power)

Good luck.

Sent off favourite and finished 4th. It might not sound right but I don’t think it was a bad run and he could be winning a similar race before long, I think the draw played a part again. I felt middle draw would be ok, and it was better than low but front two drawn high always looked to hold advantage, and winner wasn’t a complete surprise despite the big price.

I don’t know what to do really, I am trying my best but going through a terrible run lately. I feel bad for people following me as it’s bad enough losing my own money but I hate myself thinking that others could be losing money following me too. I stopped posting for 4 days in middle and managed to pick 3 winners from 4 (admittedly 2 of them were short priced favs), so I thought I was back but gone back to losing again since posting. I will keep trying but please be careful if following and remember I haven’t posted a winner yet this year.

LSP: -2.27 (win), -6.02 (place)

Well done Dazzler, nice winners and placers. And well done Calvert with Suedois.

Nice placers, good luck with others.

33/1 winner, brilliant tipping, very well done.

Great first post, well done.