BEST of the BETS

Just not happening for me at the moment, should have gone with my initial judgement, Straight Right was the class horse and won despite it being wrong distance.

LSP: +1.73 (win), -2.02 (place)

Bet 6

Soldiers Minute (6:45 Kempton)

LSP: -5.00

6:45 Kempton - only 5 runners but it looks a tricky race. In these conditions races, it often pays to go with the top rated horses, indeed 3 of the 6 runnings of this race have been won by top rated horse, the 3 that didn’t win were all carrying penalties. Today none of the 5 runners has a penalty, and my selection SOLDIERS MINUTE is just 1 lb ahead of the next one. What makes this tricky is that all previous winners were rated 100+, but this looks a weak renewal by comparison with top rating of just 99. Initially, I was drawn towards Straight Right as he has the class and looks a big price, but he has rarely run over 6 furlongs and not been quick enough the few times he has, so trip maybe too short for him especially with a lack of strong pace in the race. Harry’s Bar is rated 3 lbs lower than my selection but he is improving so can’t rule him out either. But my selection has a good record here with 2 wins from 3, and return of Joe Fanning, who has been on board his last 3 wins, is a positive too. Bit concerned about the slight drift in betting, but I hope the price will come back in.

Selection - Soldiers Minute @ 9/4

Good luck.

Good luck, Joe, I am with you on the last two.

Big drift out to 5/1, and never really looked like going close. After a good start to the thread it has gone downhill quickly, will give it another couple of days to see if results improve, if not then I will ditch it.

LSP: +2.73 (win), -1.02 (place)

Bet 5

Snapdragon Fire (2:30 Taunton)

LSP: -4.00

Still waiting for my first winner of the year

2:30 Taunton - its slightly disappointing that SNAPDRAGON FIRE hasn’t won over fences yet, but some of his hurdles form is very good, especially his last win in a novice hurdle last February when he won very easily carrying a double penalty, 4th from that race won handicap chase off 134 last week, so you have to think SF should be capable of winning off 131. He is also favourably weighted with two of his main market rivals, 5 lbs better off with Court Royale for 1 1/2 length defeat & 4 lbs better off with Our Merlin for 1 1/4 lengths, both those comparisons are over hurdles though so we have to be a bit careful. Also slightly worrying is that selection has finished 2nd twice as many times as he has won in his career, but it also shows that he is very consistent and likely to give his running, so overall I feel he has a good chance today. Paul Nicholls’ Envoye Special has been running poorly but is on a low enough mark now, so could be interesting if there is strong support for him.

Selection - Snapdragon Fire @ 3/1

Good luck.

Well done with Jepeck.

Only 6th, not helped by the draw, always turning wide, but probably wasn’t good enough today anyway.

LSP: +3.73 (win), -0.02 (place)

Bet 4

Dreamboat Dave (11:40 Lingfield)

LSP: -3.00

11:40 Lingfield - DREAMBOAT DAVE steps up to class 5 after finishing a close 4th (beaten under a length) in class 6 here on Monday. 6 of the 13 runners in that race had won or placed on their previous start so it probably wasn’t the worst class 6 handicap, and this is not much of a step up as only a few in this have a realistic chance. Selection has won only once from 15 starts but has placed another 6 times so is pretty consistent, interestingly the win in October came the only other time he has raced within 10 days of his last run. He is one of only 4 distance winners in the race and that will hopefully see him run well, I am not sure about the draw though as wide draw could be a problem so not confident. Sing Out Loud is potentially very well handicapped now on a mark of 70, had placed form over the distance at Kempton off 82 for Chris Gordon just over a year ago, so I wouldn’t rule out a return to form for him, he also has a high draw though.

Selection - Dreamboat Dave @ 7/1

Good luck.

Ran ok enough considering the price, but finished only 4th or 5th.

LSP: +4.73 (win), +0.98 (place)

Good start to the year, well done.

Toby Maguire
Eagle Ridge
ISTIMRAAR (nap)
Blooriedotcom
Petite Ganache
I’m To Blame
Not At Present

Thanks.

Bet 3

Istimraar (1:20 Musselburgh)

LSP: -2.00

Thanks, Doubler.

1:20 Musselburgh - tricky handicap, it’s hard to be confident about anything in this, I managed to narrow it to a tentative shortlist of 3. Last year’s winner Wot A Shot is one of them, he is 1 lb lower than last year but his form coming into the race this year is poorer, and although officially the race has been downgraded to class 5 from class 4, formwise it looks a slightly better renewal than last year. So I wouldn’t be confident about his chances of a repeat success but at same time he can’t be ruled out of it. I would have been interested in Titus Bolt had he been an each way price as I think he will be thereabouts. Iain Jardine is among the best when it comes to improving horses he gets from other yards, but 2/1 price now is a bit too short for me in a race like this. My selection is ISTIMRAAR, who is not without question marks but is a big enough price for me to take a small chance. His trainer has only ever had 4 wins (from 133 runs, all 4 wins were around this time 2 years ago), and has only one placing from 22 here at Musselburgh. This one has been in good form over fences, placing on 2 of his last 3 starts including a close 2nd here. We have to see how he goes now reverting to hurdles, but he got his last hurdles win as recently as May last year when with Dan Skelton so hopefully he will be ok. That win came from a 2 lbs higher mark than today, Haasab was 15 lbs behind him that day and is only 1 lb better off today but is a much shorter price.

Separately, I am also having a little saver on a long shot Bermondsey Belle @ 80/1, pulled up on 3 of 4 hurdles runs but she is on a low enough mark. Shouldn’t be good enough based on that but she has had a wind operation and did have some ability on flat rated in 60s.

Selection - Istimraar @ 14/1

Good luck.

Not a bad run, touched 1/3 in running, just failed to get up coming from well off the pace. Winner has improved, market was right about her chances.

LSP: +5.73 (win), +1.98 (place)

Bet 2

Taste The Nectar (1:15 Lingfield)

LSP: -1.00

1:15 Lingfield - TASTE THE NECTAR has twice come out on top against Heer We Go Again, beating him by 11 lengths at Chelmsford in November when receiving 3 lbs, and then finishing 4 lengths ahead at Wolverhampton last month despite conceding 4 lbs. As both race off same rating today, I can’t see why the result should be any different, therefore a bit surprised to see HWGA shorter in betting. Selection has won 2 and finished a close 2nd out of her last 4 runs, only poor run in between was when upped in class and distance at Kempton, a course where she had run poorly before too. Gold Brocade is moving up in class and needs to improve a fair bit if she is to get her first win today. Seize The Time could be interesting if she takes to this surface on first try returning from a break, but main danger looks to be Irish Acclaim whose 2nd place last time looks pretty good, he should go close if building on that.

Selection - Taste The Nectar @ 5/1

Good luck.

Really gutted to have let that winner go. This should be a lesson in how not to let your past results affect your thinking, I backed an outsider yesterday but it ran so poorly that I didn’t want to risk another outsider today and tried to play safe even though I could see Benny’s Girl was well handicapped and had a chance and I was so close to backing it. I will keep kicking myself all day today.

LSP: +6.73 (win), -0.20 (place)