BEST of the BETS

Ran like a 100/1 shot, always towards the back.

LSP: +6.42 (win), +0.64 (place)

Bet 4

Formula One (12:10 Leopardstown)

LSP: +3.33

Wins - 7/2, 5/6

12:10 Leopardstown - not expecting much as this is a huge price, and these maiden hurdles usually go to those at top of betting, 12 of last 15 runnings of this race have been won by those in first two in betting but a 50/1 shot won two years ago so shocks can happen sometimes. Small each way bet for me on FORMULA ONE, rated 80+ on the flat after some good performances for Hugo Palmer and Jessica Harrington though didn’t achieve as much as might have been expected at the start as he has a very nice pedigree, by Frankel out of Abbaye winner Whiz Kid. Eventually beaten 97 lengths on hurdling debut and first run for owner/trainer Luke Comer last month, but he ran a bit better than that. It was a very strong novice race with a well regarded winner from Mullins yard and couple of previously unbeaten runners from McManus and Gigginstown in 2nd & 3rd, and selection led for a long way before getting tired. Trainer doesn’t get many winners, he has had only 4 hurdles winners from 101, but as most of his horses tend to be big prices, that record is not as bad as it looks. One of those winners was at this meeting 10 years ago in another maiden hurdle at 12/1 SP but went off on Betfair at over 200/1. His runner in this race last year finished 11th of 20 (beaten 27 lengths) @ 100/1, but that one was only rated in 60s on flat, so I am hoping this one with more ability can go a few places better.

Selection - Formula One @ 100/1

Good luck.

Merry Xmas everyone.

Backed into 5/2 but ran a strange sort of race, was going well in early stages but never really travelling after that, eventually finishing 5th.

LSP: +7.42 (win), +1.64 (place)

Bet 3

The Dubai Way (1:40 Newcastle)

LSP: +4.33

Wins - 7/2, 5/6

Let’s see if we can make it 4 from 4, I think I have found one with a good chance, it is up against Racing Post nap though and also weak in early betting moves but let’s see.

1:40 Newcastle - THE DUBAI WAY, narrowly beaten when well fancied for the novice handicap on this card last year has a good chance to make amends. He is 2 from 2 since joining Charlie Mann, last win at Wetherby was particularly impressive. He was the only one in the field having his first run of season yet won readily from Storm Control (who himself has since won easily from a revised 4 lbs higher mark), there were 20 lengths back to the 3rd Catamaran Du Seuil, who had won that race the previous year, so that form looks very solid. Harry Bannister, who has ridden the horse (now owned by his father) on all 11 of his runs, has been very profitable on trainer’s chasers (+43 LSP from 55 rides (11 wins) in last 2 years), and he is 3 from 6 (+15.5) over fences here including a win in this race 2 years ago. 9 lbs rise since last win makes things harder but he likely has more to come and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t run well. Of others, Glittering Love was very progressive last season winning 4 times, but needs to improve again now upped in class on his return. Course specialist Ascot De Bruyere cannot be taken lightly, his record here is 1112, and although at age of 9 he may not have the likely improvement of others, this front runner is unlikely to let them go past him easily.

Selection - The Dubai Way @ 4/1

Main danger - Ascot De Bruyere

Good luck.

Nice placer.

Thanks, Doubler.

It’s a nice feeling when a race is run almost exactly as you imagined it. One Style won easily despite a few jumping errors, and Cougars Gold stayed on for 2nd to also give the forecast (9.91).

LSP: +8.42 (win), +2.64 (place)

Huge drift on One Style, as big as 6/5 in places, so it has become hard for me to resist a little bet on it.

Impressive stuff, has 3 shorties today. It will be her longest winning sequence if first one wins today, last time she had 5 consecutive winners was back in 2006.

Bet 2

One Style (1:45 Uttoxeter)

LSP: +3.50

Wins - 7/2

Thanks everyone.

1:45 Uttoxeter - bit of a no bet race really as my selection is the very short priced ONE STYLE. On all known form, it is difficult to oppose him and he should really be too good for these but we all know there is no such thing as a certainty, and like most people I also don’t like backing at such short odds so for purpose of this trial he is my selection but for betting I am trying to find one for the forecast spot.

Lickpenny Larry and Scartare come here in good form having finished 1st & 2nd over c&d 4 weeks ago, but that was a really weak race. That win has put LL on a career high mark and Scartare is a 27-race maiden so I am not keen on their chances. There is an interesting pace angle here too as 3 of the 5 runners, namely Lickpenny Larry, One Style and Louse Talk, are confirmed front runners so if they decide to take each other on then it’s likely to favour the favourite due to his greater stamina. Louse Talk is a bit of unknown for me, he hasn’t gone close since winning his first two starts in Feb/March 2018 but he has been tried in some big races and has continued to drop in ratings, so if there is a potential dark horse in the race then this could be the one. For my selection for the forecast spot, I have chosen Cougars Gold, unseated and pulled up last two starts but has a good record here, 2 wins from 3 runs over fences here, the defeat was finishing 4th of 7 when upped in class. Not expecting him to win but this is a bit easier than his last few races so wouldn’t surprise to see him return to form and stay on for a place.

Selection - One Style @ 1/2

Small forecast bet for interest - One Style/Cougars Gold @ 5/1

Good luck.

Well done.

Well done with Golden Goal, Dazzler.

Nice winner, Mugz.

Only 2 selections spread over nearly a month, but pleased to be able to say this thread still has a 100% record. Billingsley a very well backed winner.

LSP: +7.59 (win), +2.20 (place)

Great shout.

Bet 1

Billingsley (2:10 Hereford)

Thanks Peregrine, Malawi

2:10 Hereford - BILLINGSLEY is the only one in this 8 runner field to have won on heavy going before (won two novice hurdles at Chepstow on heavy in spring of 2018). Interestingly, he was sent off 4/1 favourite for quite a hot class 3 handicap hurdle at Haydock around this time last year (finished in midfield 5th of 10) from 7 lbs higher mark than today which suggests he was well thought of, disappointing in two subsequent runs but again those weren’t bad races. Was out of his depth against much superior rivals on chasing debut last time, but did run ok for some way. This is more realistic level and if he can realise the potential he showed earlier in his career then he has a good chance from this sort of mark. He is not without risks due to lack of chasing experience and this is also a big drop back in distance (both wins have come at this distance though), but I am prepared to take a chance as there are doubts about others too - 5 of the 8 runners failed to complete last time and other 3 were beaten a combined total of 150 lengths on their previous start. Only a small bet as novice handicaps are never easy to predict and this looks most tricky.

Selection - Billingsley @ 5/1

Good luck.