BEST of the BETS

Bet 6

Shaji (7:15 Kempton)

LSP: +4.73

Wins - 8/11, 7/1

Last, I think. Johnny Drama wins and what a price it ended up, even the trainers get it wrong it seems.

Some good points, Hippo and Millhouse. My opinion? I am in middle on this one, I think Cyrname’s rating is probably a bit too high but not by a huge amount. I take your point about his relatively low strike rate, but he is only 7 year old so it’s not impossible to think that he may have improved this season. Now about that Ascot performance, there are several reasons for me to believe it was a very good performance. One, 17 length winning margin, often you can get exaggerated winning distances on soft or heavy going but not so much on good to soft which was the going at Ascot. Two, he broke the course record while eased down at finish. Three, all five of his rivals were rated 160+ (lowest was Charbel on 161), now it’s possible and very likely that some of those ran below form but it’s unlikely that all 5 of them would have run below form. Michael Harris (the handicapper) has said that he felt both Waiting Patiently and Politologue ran below form (so I would not use them as comparisons as regards to Min), and he has used Fox Norton as the yardstick as he feels FN ran to similar level as when beaten 7 lengths by Altior on same course a month earlier. On this, I don’t completely agree with him as Fox Norton has mostly raced around 2 miles and there is a possibility that he didn’t truly stay 2m5f. So in my view rating of 178 maybe too high, especially as he still has to prove that he can go left handed too, but on that performance I don’t think the handicapper could have rated him much less than 175.

I think we really want to see Altior vs Cyrname, hopefully that will be a good race.

It’s only 20/1 8 places now.

7:10 Gowran Park - probably not a lot between Jassaar and Johnny Drama on form so I was tempted to back JD at 7/2 but decided against it after reading Ger Lyons blog (he feels trip is on short side) and also I wasn’t confident as he had finished a length and half behind Minnie Haha last year, who is a bigger price today and also has the fitness advantage. All things considered, Jassaar looks the most likely winner but I am going to try one at a bigger price. Favourite’s stablemate Mujid is one possibility and at 20/1 he looks a big price on debut. But I have taken a chance on another newcomer, GLOBAL ENTRY as he could be good value in extra places market on Bet365. Bill Farrell only has about a dozen horses but he often has them ready at start of season and can get occasional early winners, on the negative side his record with newcomers is 0 from 40. This one cost €70,000 as a yearling, and has a good pedigree, his grand dam Virginia Waters won the 1000 Guineas. Booking of Billy Lee also looks a positive as he has a good record for trainer and also has a good record at Gowran Park where over last 2 seasons he is behind only Colin Keane in terms of winners among jockeys riding in this race today. I don’t expect this to win but there are enough positives to make me think that 25/1 to finish in first 8 is good value so I have had a small bet.

Global Entry, 0.5 pt e/w @ 25/1 (8 places, Bet365)

Good luck.

Not beaten far in 5th in the end, but never really looked to have a chance.

Bet 5

Urban Highway (2:20 Windsor)

LSP: +5.73

Wins - 8/11, 7/1

2:20 Windsor - can’t be confident about anything in this 3yo class 6 handicap, but taken a little chance on URBAN HIGHWAY (10/1), hoping a combination of drop in class and distance will see him run well. Ran poorly last time, but earlier form, including when 5-6 lengths behind 77-78 rated horses on final start for Mark Johnston before being sold cheaply, suggests he can be competitive from this mark at this sort of level. Tony Carroll’s poor record at Windsor (under 5% strike rate from 350 runners) is a bit off putting but booking of Tom Marquand looks positive. Market could be a good pointer to his chances today.

Urban Highway, 0.5 pt e/w @ 10/1

Good luck.

Percy Alexander won @ 7/1, other two were no good. Small profit on National too with Walk In The Mill’s 4th place.

I know fences are not as big as they used to be, but still takes a very good horse to win it twice, well done Tiger Roll.

I am happy with 4th place from Walk In The Mill.

Bet 4

Percy Alexander (6:00 Wolverhampton)

LSP: -1.27

Jury Duty (16/1) & Walk In The Mill (28/1) for me.

Good luck everyone.

Going well, Brian, good luck today.

Good luck, Hippo. Win or lose, it’s always good to read your views. I am also on Road To Respect, thought he ran well at Cheltenham, interesting they are sending it here (will probably also run at Punchestown), has very similar form to, and been running in mostly same races as, First Lieutenant who won this for the owners few years ago.

Well done, Finley.

Thanks, Dodd. Probably improved a bit but not enough to finish only 6th, other one on my shortlist was 5th.

Bet 3

Honey Gg (2:20 Southwell)

LSP: -0.27

8 points down after 3 days, not a good way to start, but i feel I have been a bit unlucky so far to keep picking the wrong horses from my shortlist. I will keep going, hopefully luck will even out in long run.

3:30 Leopardstown - really good fillies maiden, with 98 rated Tarnawa heading the betting and there are couple of nicely bred newcomers from Aidan O’Brien so getting a big priced runner to even place is not going to be easy but that’s what I am doing, chancing one at a big price. My shortlist of two big priced runners that are likely to improve was made up of Heavenly Snow and QUEEN GUANHUMARA (33/1). Both of them finished down the field on debut in end of season maidens and both are likely to improve, I have gone for the latter as her form looks slightly better and trainer has a better record. Selection had finished 9th of 12 (beaten 10 lengths) behind Magna Grecia who went on to win the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy. Apart from the winner, that form looks just ok, so this filly needs to improve a lot today. But she is from a family that has produced some good stayers and she also holds an Oaks entry so there is every reason to expect this step up in trip will see her improve. And she is by Camelot, whose progeny tends to improve quite a lot from 2 to 3, his progeny’s strike rate at 3 is 13.5% compared to just 9% at 2. Henry De Bromhead doesn’t have many flat horses but he tends to have them ready enough at start of season, in last 5 seasons he has had just 6 runners on flat in months of March & April that were returning from a break of 4 months+, none of the 6 won but 3 of them placed 2nd at prices of 10/1, 33/1 & 20/1, another placed 3rd @ 66/1, and a 4th of 10 @ 50/1, only one of the 6 disappointed and that was also 50/1.

Only a small each way bet for me as this looks a very hot race.

Queen Guanhumara, 0.5 pt e/w @ 33/1

Good luck.

Grrrr it’s happened again, picking the wrong one, had Tanasoq as the danger and it was 25/1, didn’t even have a saver on it.

Alminoor
Pammi
CAPTAIN COLBY (Nap)
Hayadh
Maulesden May
City Tour
Gamesome

Thanks.