BEST of the BETS

Another thing to keep in mind when following stats is averages, for example in yesterday’s stats you can see there have been 11 top rated handicaps in last 10 years so that’s an average of just over 1 a year, so we cannot expect lots of top rated winners in handicaps, as soon as we get one top rated winner in a handicap it maybe best to stop.

Today’s stat relates to combination of distance and class as we know it takes stamina to win at Cheltenham so we are looking for horses that have proved they can run well at further than the distance of race. And you also need a horse that has run well in same class.

Horses that have won or placed at least 3 times over longer distance, and won or placed at least once in same class have done very well in past.

Those who met above two conditions, and were priced 10/1 or shorter have a 27% strike rate over last 10 years, with 39 wins from 146 bets for LSP of +51.16. This stat has also shown profit in 7 out of last 10 years.

Thanks everyone.

Well done.

Excellent again, I have to start backing these.

Thanks Jeepster & Rodeo. Nap drifted as I had hoped out to 9/4, and won very easily in the end. Long shot ran poorly again, but it will help him drop a bit more in the handicap.

Thanks, Dragon2

Tavener is out again tomorrow, as I did say last time I will back him next time. It’s 6 furlongs at Wolverhampton (5:00), last time he ran over this c&d, he won by 3 lengths from 10 lbs higher mark (January 2018), so must have a chance now that he showed signs of return to form last time. Price of 4/1 (Betfair) a bit shorter than I would like though considering he hasn’t won for a while, will wait till other bookies have priced up the race.

Mixed day, main bet Niblawi won at 7/4 (Mulholland’s good form continues with both his runners winning today). Other 3 selections were poor.

Thanks, Bodger.

Wow, yes I see. Returning from a long absence, and I see he was only 10/1 this morning, so big drift.

Fair point, Joe, you maybe right that horses at a lot of these courses horses are probably beating same horses again and again. But if it gives even a small edge, I don’t mind that. Comparing the results since start of this thread, at these courses there have been 33 runners with 6 winners with a loss of -6 (-19% ROI), still a loss but by being selective, for example only backing if first 3 in betting it would have shown a profit. At other NH courses in same period it’s 19 winners from 116 for a loss of -32 (-27% ROI), only a small sample but past record is similar too.

It did go off favourite, and I did back it but it finished tailed off, very disappointing.

Well done, CMB. I should have followed you.

A possible for the beaten favourite system in 4:40 Doncaster tomorrow but it’s not favourite at the moment. Zig Zag meets other three conditions but it’s only 2nd favourite (9/4 against 9/5 favourite) at the moment. I will only back it if it looks certain to go off favourite.

Good luck, guys. Intense Starlet for me, c&d winner even if that was a few years ago. Having 2nd run for Ellison, and he will get a win from it sooner or later, hoping it remains sold in betting.

Rest of meeting abandoned.

Unlucky, was up there for most of the way, just dropped out of money at the finish. Traded very low (3.6) in running so back to lay would have been the better option.

12/1, very well done.

Well done.

Well done.

Well done, good reasoning.