BEST of the BETS

SP: 11/4 Loch Linnhe (4th), 4/1 Oscar Ceremony (5th), 6/1 Corinto (Won), Notachance (3rd), Treasure Dillon (9th), 10/1 Eur Gone West (7th), 14/1 Very Extravagant (2nd), 16/1 Minella Gathering (8th), Wasdell (10th), 25/1 Tikk Tock Boom (6th), 50/1 Slanemore Hill (last)

Well done, Brian, you beat both me and RP, having both the winner and third in your top 3.

Thanks, Brian. Looks like a 3-horse race based on those odds. Not long to wait now..

Are you picking tomorrow’s race, as I picked today’s?

Lots of changes in market, Oscar Ceremony (7/2) and Treasure Dillon (4/1) have gone to top, both were 11.0 on exchanges earlier, OC has taken about 1.5 times more money than TD on Betfair so far.

Hollie Doyle went close last year with a 2nd on 66/1 shot in Sandringham, if she gets one with a better chance it’s not impossible.

Good luck, Brian. Interesting that both of us have Minella Gathering so short, recent form is poor but one of only 3 to have actually won a race.

I am finding that the winners have come from the ones we have priced closer to SP (last couple of days at least) and not from the ones where SP is a lot bigger or shorter than our prices. But there haven’t been enough races to draw any conclusions yet, will analyse results after we have gone through at least 10 races.

Bachelor
Kilcullen Lady
Clarendon Street
EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS (Nap)
Johnny Yuma
Treasure Dillon

Thanks

Bit of a nightmare of race tomorrow, it’s a handicap hurdle but so many of the runners have had so little racing, it’s difficult to get a handle of form, but this is what I have come up with. I make Treasure Dillon a narrow favourite in a very open market.

RP: 4/1 Loch Linnhe, Notachance, 5/1 Tikk Tock Boom, 7/1 Corinto, 8/1 Treasure Dillon, Eur Gone West, 10/1 Oscar Ceremony, 12/1 Very Extravagant, Wasdell, 33/1 Minella Gathering, Slanemore Hill

My prices: 6/1 Treasure Dillon, 13/2 Notachance, Minella Gathering, 7/1 Tikk Tock Boom, 15/2 Wasdell, 8/1 Corinto, Loch Linnhe, 9/1 Oscar Ceremony, 10/1 Very Extravagant, 11/1 Eur Gone West, 16/1 Slanemore Hill

SP: 6/4 Cracking Destiny (3rd), 3/1 Midnight Chill (2nd), 5/1 Cigarisi (4th), 6/1 Spring Wolf (Won), 13/2 Minellatillmorning (fell), 33/1 Drops of Jupitor (last of finishers)

Race of changing fortunes, Midnight Chill touched 1.20 in running, Minellatillmorning (1.75) & Cigarisi (2.28) but it was Spring Wolf who prevailed in the end having touched a high of 24.0 in running. Winner was only 4th best (in tight betting) on both our forecasts and 2nd best on RP’s.

I am looking at 4:30 Market Rasen for tomorrow.

Cigarisi being gambled before the off into 5/1 from 9/1

That’s 5 wins from last 7, I keep forgetting to follow them. Well done.

RACING ABANDONED following 2pm INSPECTION Too high a percentage of course still frozen solid. Temperatures forecast to drop to -2C for 7 x hours tonight and slow to rise tomorrow - sorry

Ah ok, thanks Brian.

Hi Brian, yes I have been adding around 15-20% overround to my prices, so that I can better compare with bookies prices.

I was wondering about a couple of columns in your table, Psp, Wgt, Rpr are obvious, and I now know that Ts refers to trainer’s rtf. About the 2 Betfair columns, do you take those price readings at a certain time of day, and what do the * and x next to some of them denote?

Well spotted, Calvert. 2 of the 4 winners of this race had previously won at the course (that’s 2 winners from just 3 runners), and another winner had previously finished 3rd at the track. That’s why I thought Railroad Junkie would have had a good chance as he likes it here, but going change made them pull it out.

And I see the bookies have reacted, DoJ into 12/1 from 25/1.

My revised prices after the non runner

3/1 Cigarisi, 7/2 Minellatillmorning, 9/2 Spring Wolf, Cracking Destiny, 6/1 Legend Lady, 7/1 Midnight Chill, 28/1 Drops Of Jupitor (price should have read 33/1 in my earlier post)

Brian, I see the main difference between our forecasts is the contrasting prices of Midnight Chill and Cigarisi. I did not factor in chasing experience in my pricing, if I had then Cigarisi might have been a little lower in the list having first run over fences.

Interesting to note there is a bit of early money for Drops of Jupitor on the exchange, 6% of total money has been traded on this horse which is a bit high for an outsider, to make the comparison, almost exactly same amount has been traded on Spring Wolf which is joint 2nd fav.

Cheers Brian. I make this a very tight handicap with not a lot between at least 5 of the 8 runners. I am favouring course form, so Railroad Junkie is the narrow pick for me.

RP: 5/2 Cracking Destiny, 3/1 Spring Wolf, 4/1 Railroad Junkie, 5/1 Midnight Chill, 13/2 Cigarisi, 10/1 Minellatillmorning, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor, 33/1 Legend Lady

My prices : 7/2 Railroad Junkie, 4/1 Cigarisi, 9/2 Minellatillmorning, 11/2 Spring Wolf, 6/1 Cracking Destiny, 15/2 Legend Lady, 17/2 Midnight Chill, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor

Current prices : 9/4 Cracking Destiny, 7/2 Spring Wolf, 4/1 Railroad Junkie, Midnight Chill, 13/2 Cigarisi, 10/1 Minellatillmorning, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor, 40/1 Legend Lady

SP: 4/1 First Excel (5th), 6/1 Muatadel (2nd), The Golden Cue (3rd), Poets Pride (4th), 13/2 Fly True (7th), 10/1 Newstead Abbey (Won), 11/1 Capla Demon (10th), 12/1 Kommander Kirkup (last), 14/1 Pearl Acclaim (8th), 40/1 Major Crispies (6th), Coiste BoDhar (9th), 66/1 Sir Geoffrey (11th), 250/1 Interchoice Star (12th), Liamba (n/r)

That was a minor shock result, none of us had the winner in our first 6, and it was only 6th best in betting. Brian did best out of us with his top 3 finishing 2nd, 3rd & 4th, Racing Post’s top 3 included 3rd & 4th, and less said about my top 3 the better.

Thanks, Brian, looks good.

I was thinking it will be a good idea if we take turns in selecting a race, and also if Calvert or someone else wants to nominate a race for us to look at that will be good too. Only thing I ask is, it will be easier for me if I know the night before which race we are working on. So if you want to select a race for tomorrow, that would be great.

You are right, Calvert. Pearl Acclaim has continued to drift, I had a small bet on that because I am following Griffiths as posted on other thread. Fly True remains strong in betting, and looks the most likely favourite to me but price is about right so no great value, it has to be included in forecasts tricasts though imo. Just for a laugh, I have had a tiny each way on Interchoice Star (6 places, 50/1 Bet365), last time he returned from a similar absence 18 months ago, he finished 5th of 12 (66/1) over c&d.