BEST of the BETS

Thanks, CMB. Winners of first and last race of day, but poor in middle, money back on the bet.

Well done, Joe

Nice profit with one more still to go, well done.

Gamble won, my one 3rd :(

I think this post explains your challenge better than your earlier post did, so by questioning it I don’t think Mugz was trying to stop you from posting. Getting 35 consecutive lays at under 3/1 is extremely difficult but not impossible. I would love to see you complete this difficult task on here, it’s up to people whether to follow or not. Good luck.

Wow great selection, huge gamble.

In my opinion it’s one of the best bets of the day, I need it for a double with Another Theatre, seeing record of your lays gives me more confidence.

ANOTHER THEATRE (Nap)
The Dawn Man
Arthur Mac
Trooblue
Iskabeg Lane
Waltz Darling

Thanks.

Well done Peregrine with the winner, and Amadeus with two 20/1 & 25/1 placers.

I followed you today, Stevie. Nice placer in first, good luck with others.

16/1 saver winner and 12/1 placed so far, well done and good luck with others.

For a bit of fun, my 3 against the field are Folsom Blue, Ron’s Dream & Jenny’s Surprise. Fun e/w singles and combi f/c & t/c

Good luck everyone.

San Seb
Dynamite Dollars
Chilli Filli
ALTIOR (Nap)
Springtown Lake
Pacific de Baune

Thanks.

That’s a cracking piece of info at a great price.

Well done.

Some nice winners and placers in there, and lsp profit on Amadeus, Egger, Stevie and Dazzler’s selections. Well done everyone.

Little loss on my selections as only had a 5/2 winner, but could easily have been profitable if only I had reversed the forecast in the first.

Good thread, cheers Mugz.

Down Royal - I will start with a little about Gordon Elliott’s dominance at this fixture in recent seasons. In last 10 years, Elliott has won 17 of the 70 races run at this meeting, that’s almost 25% of the races. To put it into context, next trainer on the list has just 5 winners in same period, that is the local trainer Colin McBratney, with Noel Meade back in 3rd with 4 wins. Elliott’s record at this fixture has been improving year on year with 8 winners and 8 other placers from 23 runners in last 3 seasons, only 3 of the 7 unplaced horses were priced under 10/1. In fact, all 17 of Elliott’s winners have been priced under 10/1, that is 17 winners from 40 runners in this price category, returning LSP of +29 pts at SP, so if past trends continue, I wouldn’t put anyone off putting his shorter priced runners in a multiple bet.

I have listed the single bets I have placed so far, and reasons given below.

12:00 - Grotesque @ 2/1
1:00 - Milan Flyer (e/w) @ 20/1
1:35 - Calicojack @ 5/2
2:45 - Better Back Bob (e/w) @ 14/1
3:20 - Valdieu @ 15/8


12:00 - Gordon Elliott (4 wins) and Noel Meade (2 wins) between them have won 6 of the 9 runnings of this. Favourites have won 6 times, 8 of the 9 winners have come from first 3 in betting with biggest priced winner at 8/1. This looks quite open due to the fact that 7 of the 12 runners are making their chasing debut, and most of those with chasing experience look beatable. Snugsborough Hall with a rating of 116 is the best of those with experience, and he should run well but GROTESQUE has achieved same rating over hurdles and as he is expected to make a better chaser, I prefer him out of the two market leaders. Noel Meade also has a good record in this with 2 wins and 3 places from 8 runners, and his runner Getaway Kid also has good place chance but for win purposes I have backed Grotesque @ 2/1 and in forecast with Snugsborough Hall & Getaway Kid.

12:30 - not had a bet in this race yet, Ticket To Ride is respected because of his trainer, but form doesn’t warrant a price of 11/8. Bective Cave (7/1) placed 3rd in a stronger race last time and he has only had 4 runs over fences so far, he heads my shortlist ahead of Allduckornodinner, Drummullagh Rocky, Coolnagorna Giggs & Shaluna.

1:00 - Gordon Elliott (Kruzhlinin) is 2 from 7 and Enda Bolger (Stand Up And Fight) is 3 from 5 in this race, so no surprise to see those two at head of betting. I prefer Elliott’s runner of the two, Sizing Coal & Coastal Tiep also have chances but I have tried MILAN FLYER (20/1) who wasn’t beaten far by Coastal Tiep last time but is a much bigger price and could run well.

1:35 - this looks a good maiden hurdle, CALICOJACK (5/2) has already finished ahead of his two market rivals Sinoria & Invincible Cave when 3 of them finished 2nd, 4th & 5th respectively at Gowran Park last month. All 3 were making their hurdling debut, and I see no reason why Calicojack can’t beat them again. Small forecasts with Kalum River & Rakhine State.

2:10 - no bet, Melly And Me could run well and Pilot Station has place chances.

2:45 - local trainers have struggled at this fixture in last 3 seasons, with just 3 wins from 134 runners but two of those 3 wins have come in this race. It’s bit of a long shot but I have backed 12yo BETTER BACK BOB (14/1), who is returning from a 400+ day absence but has won here before, and also run well when placing on both previous runs after such a long absence. Trainer’s 3 previous runners in the race were all unplaced but two of them ran well just finishing out of places including one after a similar absence. Probably won’t win, but I think he has place chances. Mistiness & Boris Boru are another couple that could run well at big prices.

3:20 - VALDIEU (15/8) has finished 2nd on his last 3 starts, but one of those was here behind the highly regarded Malone Road. That form makes him the one to beat.

Good luck.

ALMOST GOLD (Nap)
Dolos
Valdez
Paisley Park
Full Glass
Fidux

Thanks.

Good luck, CMB. I backed this one last month when with John Butler, it finished last that day but was weak in betting. Paul Howling is getting a lot of horses from Butler lately, he has run 4 of them in last 10 days, one won (Declamation) @ 14/1, other 3 unplaced at 66/1, 33/1 & 33/1.

Well done with King Robert, CMB.