BEST of the BETS

Well done.

I kind of agree with both sides if that makes sense. If the question is purely about horse racing as a sport, then my answer is no I don’t like the all weather racing. Better horses run on the turf and it’s more pleasing to the eye, so I am with Hippo on that as I enjoy watching racing as a sport and not just for betting. But Insidethestables has made some very good points and I agree with most of them, best thing about all weather racing is the consistency of going and also the draw, which makes the job of finding winners a lot easier. It means you can reliably use the speed ratings in combination with the draw bias (it has got me some good wins especially at Kempton) and you won’t go far wrong.

Thanks, Coss. All except Zamparelli ran well, but only one winner at 5/2.

Snazzy Jazzy, nice 18/1 winner.

No excuses today, it was just a very poor selection, unplaced.

Experiment of having one bet a day started so well, but last few days have been poor. 15 bets, 3 winners, 6 placed, 6 unplaced, full results below.

Placed @ 13/2
Won @ 12/1
Placed @ 11/4
Won @ 6/1
Placed @ 15/2
Placed @ 9/1
Lost @ 4/1
Placed @ 5/2
Lost @ 10/1
Placed @ 8/1
Lost @ 10/1
Won @ 4/7
Lost @ 28/1
Lost @ 7/1
Lost @ 18/1

Fell, bit unlucky as he still had a chance when falling at the 2nd last.

6:15 Kempton - RIPPLING WATERS (18/1) has just one win from 11, but that win was over this c&d. Admittedly that was in a weak maiden, but she is still unexposed on this surface having had just that one run on all weather, and she is better drawn than a couple of the market leaders. Risky bet, but hopefully she can get a place.

Each way bet @ 18/1

Good luck.

Out to 28/1, and unplaced in 6th

1:45 Chepstow - WATERLOO WARRIOR (7/1) is yet to win a race, but has finished 2nd on 3 of 4 runs over hurdles here. Ran well enough on chasing debut at Uttoxeter when 2nd behind a 139-rated horse at level weights. Pulled up last time but likely needed the run and could do better today.

Each way bet @ 7/1

Good luck.

Short price, but won by a very easy 17 lengths. He is into 25/1 for the National Hunt Chase, one of his possible targets at the festival.

2:40 Ayr - APACHE PILOT (16/1) has won after a break before so 4 and half months break may not be a problem. Bigger doubt is that his last 3 wins have all come at Hexham, although he has run well away from that track too with a 3rd at Bangor in June in a slightly stronger race. He also came in for support in betting on those 3 wins, so how he moves in betting may also give a clue about his chances. Another positive is that he has finished out of places only 4 times out of 14 runs on good going. Maurice Barnes runs two in this race (Spinning Scooter his other runner), he has won 5 of the 13 handicap chases when he has had two runners in them, but again all but one of those wins have been at Hexham, which along with Carlisle are his local tracks and tend to provide most of his wins. It is a risky bet as he will probably need a career best to win this, but at 16/1 is a big enough price to make it worth chancing.

Each way bet @ 16/1

Good luck.

Drifted to 10/1 and unplaced.

Today’s is a very short price, but that’s the one I like.

1:05 Galway - Gigginstown House Stud have won 4 of the last 5 runnings of this, those winners included Don Cossack (Gold Cup winner) and Very Wood (winner up to Grade 2 level), and they have a very good chance of adding another with BLOW BY BLOW (4/7). Selection is rated 150 over hurdles, and is already a winner at Cheltenham festival. Dorans River looks the most likely for the forecast.

Win bet @ 4/7

Good luck.

Thanks Owenjohn.

Placed 3rd @ 8/1 for a small profit.

4:30 Newbury - my selection is the very consistent BANDITRY (11/2), who has an impressive 56% place strike rate over his career, which improves to 64% if you leave out his runs on undulating courses. William Buick has ridden him 3 times in past, placing on two of those runs, one time he wasn’t placed he lost all chance after getting badly hampered. Ian Williams’ last runner in the race was in 2013, also ridden by Buick, which placed 3rd @ 8/1. Buick doesn’t ride for Williams very often but the combination has a very good record, 15% win & 48% place strike rate from 46 runners which improves to 27% win (+14 LSP) & 65% place on horses priced 8/1 or under. On the negative side, selection is on a career high mark and age is against him as the last time a horse aged older than 5 won this race was way back in 1997. But with his consistency, he looks good for a place at least and can hopefully win.

Each way bet @ 11/2

Good luck.

Excellent write up, good luck with it.

8 of the 11 winners of this race had not won in class 2 or higher before, though 5 of those 8 had placed in class before.

Unplaced.

5:20 Doncaster - it took MEARING (15/2) 13 runs to get his first win, but he has now won two of his last three (finished 2nd on other run). Form of his Carlisle win has worked out very well with 4 other winners coming out of it. And the win at Chester last time where he beat a horse now rated 85 and who has since run in a Listed race (unplaced), the pair were 7 lengths clear of the rest suggests that isn’t bad form. Has to carry a big weight as he drops in class today, but hopefully he can continue to improve as he is only a 3 year old.

Each way bet @ 15/2

Good luck,

Placed 2nd, but no match for the very easy winner.

3:05 Carlisle - NENDRUM (10/1) has been pretty consistent with some good efforts, including when beaten under a length in a similar class 3 race at Perth back in May. Although he has gone up in handicap because of his consistency, he could still find a bit more improvement as I think this track will suit. At Carlisle, with its stiff finish you often need a horse that stays a bit further, selection has placed form at up to 2 and half miles.

Backed each way even though only 7 runners now.

Good luck.

Thanks CMB.

Wednesday 24th October

1:30 Newmarket - PYTILIA (5/2) made her debut in a class 3 conditions event at Kempton, and did well to finish 3rd of 5 behind a couple of runners with experience. That form looks good as the winner finished runner up in Group 2 Rockfel Stakes on her next start and runner up Desirous has also won since. Desirous also has formlines with today’s favourite Rainbow Heart. Desirous had finished only a neck ahead of Pytilia, but on next run she was 2 and half lengths clear of Rainbow Heart. Pytilia didn’t really improve on debut effort but ran well enough behind an odds on favourite next time. Rainbow Heart is obviously a big danger as she is expected to improve, but at current prices I prefer Pytilia as I think she can give the favourite a race and hopefully beat her.

Win bet on Pytilia @ 5/2

Good luck.

Thanks Malawi, unfortunately I didn’t, gutted to have missed a 14/1 winner. I think I let poor run from yesterday’s selection affect my confidence.

No bet today as I don’t fancy anything strongly. I did look at Padura Brave (8/1) in the nursery at Kempton (5:40), but not totally convinced.

Poor today. Drifted to 4/1 and unplaced.

Thank you both.

Backed right down to 5/2 favourite, which looked a false price. But she ran a good race to finish a close 2nd, so each way profit made again at the early price of 9/1.

5:20 Plumpton - SEA’S ARIA (5/2), hard to be confident backing a horse that was beaten 67 lengths on its previous run, but it is that kind of race where every runner was beaten 20+ lengths last time. Selection hasn’t won for a long time, but this is the weakest race he is contesting and has placed form in much better races. Mark Hoad doesn’t get many winners, his strike rate is only 4% but it improves to 21% when his runners are in first two in betting.

Win bet @ 5/2

Good luck.

Safrani, only 3rd, not helped by the draw and met plenty of trouble in running.

3rd @ 15/2

Ran a good race, happy with each way profit.

Sunday 21st October

4:00 Cork - Grade 2 Handicap Chase

Penny Jane is the favourite, but I can’t ignore the other mare in race LAKEMILAN (9/1). Interestingly, both of them had made their hurdling debut in same race. Penny Jane had won that contest, beating Lakemilan into 3rd by 8 lengths at level weights, but today Lakemilan is receiving 9 lbs. She recently won a Grade 2 handicap hurdle, returns to bigger obstacles now and assuming she has the same improvement as hurdles, she could take advantage of the lower chase mark. Kevin Brouder is worth his 7 lbs claim, and Terence O’Brien is a good judge of jockeys as in the past he has successfully used Mark Enright and David Splaine to win Graded handicaps when those jockeys were conditionals. I don’t think O’Brien, who trains locally, will be running her unless he felt she had a chance. There is another story attached to trainer and this race, Farrells Fancy, who was arguably his best horse to date, died after falling at the 2nd last fence when in a contested lead in this race a few years ago. It will be nice if Lakemilan can win.

Each way bet @ 9/1

Good luck.