BEST of the BETS

Well done.

Only a 6/1 placer from other 3, so profit on the day but would have been better off if I cashed out after the first one.

Thanks Fuzzy.

Small profit secured already after Army of India’s winning debut, would be nice if I can get at least one other winner.

Well done H4C & Rodeo with Edraak, some nice winners today. Good to have the racing back.

Great start, Calvert.

Big change in prices following BHA’s press release, Yes is now 1.58.

No professional sport in England (even behind closed doors) before 1st June. Still, it’s tricky if you are betting on this market as it says “racing to resume ON or before 1st June”.

Current prices - NO (1.83), YES (2.20)

Always at back, I give up.

I have backed 9 to place at 2.12. Last bet for me if this loses.

I backed the favourite there, probably should have stopped after my first bet lol. I see there is an odds on on next too.

Unlucky, just missed out.

Following you, backed for place at 2.22

Unlucky, mate.

No exchange market for Gulfstream Park, so leaving it. Might play up my winnings on next at Tampa Bay after seeing what you fancy.

I think it had just gone in play as I placed my bet, not sure what Betfair SP was but I think it was better than industry price. I find you can often get much better prices on exchange for US racing. Only reason I backed it was because you were against the odds on favourite, so decided to go for the 2nd fav.

Thanks Mugz, just saw this in time so backed the 2nd favourite at 3/1 on exchange. Well done.

Another excellent thread, Brian, and it’s good to see different opinions and how people give more importance to different factors. I think it can vary for different type of races, and a combination of many of these factors can be useful. Good luck with your project, and if you need any help with looking up any past data, give me a shout.

It’s difficult to put numbers to these as I think they can vary from race to race, but will try.

Course winner - 6.5
Distance winner - 5.5
Class winner - 6.0
Going winner - 6.0
Trainer stats (at the track) - 6.5
Jockey stats (at the track) - 3.0
Tissue Price - 4.5
Form figures - 5.0 (?), form is more important when combined with other factors, but I understood this to mean just basic form figures as in where the horse finished in last few races without taking into consideration class and other factors of those races.

Update on prices

UK racing to resume on or before 1st June
Price for Yes was shortening last week and went as short as 1.25 (1/4) at one point but has been on the drift since Monday and is 1.66 (about 4/6) now.

Price for Royal Ascot to go ahead on 16th June also shortened last week and went as low as 2.00 (evens) but since Monday has drifted back out to 2.50 (6/4).

I wouldn’t really make comparisons with Germany. I am not going into possible reasons, but they seem to have managed it better than most European countries and number of new daily cases there have dropped sufficiently to say that they are past the peak. Number of new cases in France are also much lower than UK. UK is still having around 4000 new daily cases, I think these will need to drop to around 2000 for government to ease lockdown restrictions. If any country we can make a comparison with it is Italy, as we have followed a similar trajectory and have been consistently about two weeks behind them. It has taken Italy 16 days to come from 4000 daily cases to around 2000 currently, and they will start easing lockdown restrictions from next Monday. So if UK follows the same path then it could be another 3 weeks before lockdown restrictions are eased here.

Based on that, my opinion is that the earliest racing could resume in UK would be last week of May, but it could be first or second week of June depending on how things go so I am not betting on this.

Betfair prices

UK racing to resume on or before 1st June?
Yes 4/7 (1.57) shortened from 4/5 in last couple of days
No about 13/8 (2.68)

Not much movement on prices for Royal Ascot, prices have remained fairly constant for a while

Royal Ascot 16th June, will racing go ahead?
Yes is 2.66
No 1.56

Well done, Mugz.