BEST of the BETS

Had a look at this before and a couple look to be being primed for a win, Dreamboat Annie and Rowland Rocks, whilst two looked well placed to follow up recent victories, Catheadens Fury and Princess Keira (Norton and Quinn got a winner last night) Eustace 2-3 in the last couple of weeks, basically it looked to competative for me, but good luck

Not interested tonight were they, handed it to the fav.

That’s a good way of putting it AKD. I also prefer the turf for flat racing as a sport. I won’t miss the classics or Ascot etc but from a regular betting perspective it’s the all weather, hands down.

Bolts up at 6/5, entered in the Derby, maybe another one to raise the profile of aw racing.

Hippo, you think like an outsider not an insider. The rules are different for those on the inside of the sport, where the old adage, ‘where there is a will there is a way’ holds and always will.

Don’t believe me, here’s one of the best at it on the all weather



https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/nov/29/trainer-david-evans-ladbrokes-non-runner-tip

In my view it’s not cheating its just the nature of a sport that involves animals and an economic model which means prize money does not cover the costs of competing.

Is there any other sport with such a derisory return for an owners investment?

The costs of having a class 6 plodder in training is similar to having a group 1 performer, about 25k per year.

There is virtually no chance of winning this back through prize money with such a horse, the only route is through having a punt on the right day.

If you own such a class 6 plodder you are going to set a plan with the trainer of say, targeting a 0-55 1 mile handicap at Wolves in November/December. If the horse is currently rated 65 and that rating is a true reflection of its ability then you have to get it down the handicap, so the trainer gets it as fit as possible at home in say June, July, then get it on the track to build up race fitness through August-October, running over a bit further, or a bit shorter, or at the wrong track or in higher grades, or with sub optimal race tactics, eg holding up a front runner or sending a hold up horse to the front or racing 4 horses wide or put a inexperienced jockey up. Then when it’s rated 55 or less and it’s fit then you can start to enter it some 1 mile 0-55 races over 1 mile at Wolves, maybe the first time it gets a poor draw so you again send it to the front a bit early or hold it up a bit longer than optimum. Then you enter it again, it gets a nice low draw, you put the best jockey on, you know you have at least a 10lb in hand.

You should get decent odds say 8-1, so you have a decent bet, say a 5k win, the horse wins and you get 40k. You can then enter it in a few more for prize money only, for a bit of fun, the odds will now be too skinny for a decent bet.

After a couple of races you then arrange with the trainer to send the horse into the field with his mates for a few months to lower the training costs and then set another plan for the next year.


That’s how the game works at that level. It’s similar at the top level for different reasons. Around this time of year Cheltenham horses will be running in stakes races and getting beat by horses rated lower, because the Cheltenham horses and not 100% fit and are running on the wrong ground, but they have been in the field for a few months and now it’s time to get on the track building up to March. Most horses are not 100% fit and trying to win all year round, no matter what level they run at. There are the odd black swans who are so good they can win every race but most are the white swans that have a target and build towards the target.


Without owners there is no horse racing and I have no problem with them doing their best to recoup some of the outlay through the betting. That’s the reality of how it works, so as a punter you should accept the reality and read the form with the owners perspective in mind, there is no point complaining about it because it isn’t going to change.

Well backed

Bring on the all weather

Chepstow today - Bends have been moved out onto fresh ground, adding approximately 102 yards to races 3 and 4, that’s nearly half a furlong.

Musselburgh - Bottom bend has been moved out 15 yards from the inner, + 98 yards to races 1 and 4


Another negative for the turf, they always get the going wrong, another reason to avoid having a serious bet on flat turf

I much prefer the all weather racing to turf and jumps

Over 80% of my bets are placed on all weather racing, about 15% on turf and 5% jumps although I actually prefer the jumps to flat turf.

The all weather presents the best opportunity for owners and punters to make a profit

Conditions are much more consistent, on turf there is too much last minute messing about with stalls, rails and needless watering.

An owner and trainer can target a race to smash the bookies months in advance on the all weather, enabling them to at least recoup their circa 25k costs of having a runner in training. Its a lot more risky on turf.

Most tipsters are focusing on the all weather as it gives them the best opportunity to show a points profit. Hugh Taylor was focusing on the all weather at the height of the turf season due to all the messing about on the turf.

Jumping is next best as there is less messing with the course and any messing can be negated by the flag start and distance of the race.


My personnel order is

1 All weather
2 Jumps
3 Flat Turf

12-1 with Bet365, can certainly see a case for a good run

The dam was a Polytrack winner at Wolves, had the outside stall last time 14 but stayed on, unlucky with the draw again today but stamina in the pedigree for this step up in trip

I’m on

Good call

Thanks both, gambled and bolted up, plenty more of these aw handicap plots over the next few months

Yeh, the winner had the cd form in higher grades but jockey put me off tonight

915 - Spanish Star

845 - Charlie Alpha

Highest rated do very well, especially in handicaps, in which they are allocated number 1, on that note...

510 - Little Miss Kodi, number one, looks a solid fav, she has the 6lb penalty but she gets to drop in grade, into basement class. Should handle the penalty as even with the penalty she is over a stone below her Goodwood win, draw ok and jockey good.


Bet - Little Miss Kodi

First ride at the track, and it was Trademark Fallon

Doyle bossed that

In the last I’ll go for Widnes, who is on a nice mark and has his winning jockey up


Bet - Widnes, 14-1, General