BEST of the BETS

yes Joe, agree with that although bookies are being forced by betfair to take less than 1% on most races. You can make that a negative % by taking early doors as bookies now routinely shorten everything on the opening show and just before the off....the contraction just before is bewildering so ALWAYS take early and make use of sites like bet365 offering extra places...they sometimes get lazy on big prices and the % difference between say 5th and 6th place can be in your favour!

Im actually checking that but i think because its gone below 5 runners theres some sort of get out clause like 1/2 my stake back etc Im on the case!

Here Here, id be lost without my racing, football, boxing et al! Surely thats what Christmas is all about! lol

As predicted Santini is a NR but only 4 now entered where i need 5! Talkischeap is going to run and actually it has the same two horses to beat when i had the bet LaBague Au Roi and Lost In translation so in a way im still in the same position but would have liked the insurance of ew! Still 25/1 sis still value, win lose or draw

Ok, a decent debate at last and lets keep it that way. The timeform stats are interesting but it doesnt say what % of fallers when a horse has lost all chance...weve all seen a race where a horse is miles behind and has a tired fall or unseats at the 2nd last or last (personally i think the jockey should have pulled it up by then, but the jockey club made that impossible after the Grahame Bradley affair....he would pull a horse up as soon as it had no chance...they thought there was a fiddle going on because some won next time out...Derrrrr thats because he was kind and didnt give them a hard race and therefore a fresh horse nto...by the way Bradley was an exceptional horseman).

Also crucially it doesnt give an average price of the fallers. Now outsiders fall more often as they by nature (thus price) fall more often! So they arent "running for the bookies" as they had no hope in the first place.

Plus also by nature if you are jumping an obstacle there is a chance you can fall, thus the figures are surprisingly lower than i thought they would be (which is good). Plus good jumpers and bad jumpers are factored in the bookies and punters.

So while those statistics are interesting I think your conclusion that it means a better % for the bookies is flawed. i have always made a better winning return on the jumps than the flat and that includes when i took the game seriously and made money regularly from both. The intro of the AW made it harder on the flat especially the early turf meetings where you had mediocre but fit horses running on turf from the AW (that stopped my early edge i used to enjoy by knowing which Lambourn trainers had their horses fitter than most).

I think my edge on the jumps is that I spend a lot of time working out who is a good jumper, what trainer regularly produces good jumpers (eg Martin Pipe produced ultra fit horses but they were not always the best jumpers which is why in the early days he won tonnes of small races but fell short at the big meetings...obviously he put that right later on!). An example of this is Oliver Sherwood (and i have no hard facts to back this up)....he and his brother Simon (Desert Orchids original rider) are old school and still use the same methods as their mentors Fred Winter and Fulke Walwyn of teaching horses how to jump and THEN work on fitness. I just dont seem to remember many of Sherwoods horses falling and he once had a horse called Large Action that was so quick over its hurdles the jockey had to catch up! He spends weeks perfecting their jumping and was one of the first to use Yogi Breisners services. Oliver simply hates to see a horse fall thats why he stays loyal to Leighton Aspell..a real horseman who presents his horses perfectly at every jump. Hes not the best in a finish and not as astute as say Johnson or Walsh but he lets his horses jump. So when I know Oliver has a good one i tend to wade in because the one thing i know (hopefully!) it wont fall...just sometimes i wish they were a bit quicker!

So stats are useful (as this set can be) but you must tweak to what you know. At a decent course if there is 8 runners I can normally eliminate 4 (and thats not necessarily the 4 outsiders) so immediately I have an edge. 9 times out of 10 one of these four will SCREAM value and thats the one i back. It may be 2/1 (but in my book 5/4) or it could be 20/1 (8/1 in my book) and in a go. Ive being doing this for over 20 years and have had a profitable season every year (well thats not include travel, booze, food etc which no doubt has actually turned that profit to a loss!). ive also made a profit on the flat by much the same value method but probably won more in the last few years on 2yo's where i can usually narrow a 20 runner field down to 3 or 4 but much harder to get VALUE on the flat as rumours flash about too wildly, especially in Newmarket (how many pigeon catching 2 yos get beat!)

But i suppose thye overall point is to use stats to suit you. thats the beauty. Ant statistician will tell you everyone of them interprets the same set differently!

the comparison to Roulette is an odd one. The % is based only on you backing all 37 numbers for an equal payout of 35/1 which a junior school student could work ou NEVER offers value.

an interesting one tho Joe and should spark debate which is the point ofthe forum. So lets keep it clean and discuss like adults

looks as if Santini probably wont run and La Bag now fav. Im hoping field gets smaller and smaller and Talkischeap is declared. Small movement to 20/1. Problem is MNewbutry is getting hit hard by the rain and I fear Heavy ground which may see loads of NRs. Butbthats the risk of Ante post

all noises about Buveur D'Air are positive and i personally wouldnt fear Samcro...it will fall to pieces trying to keep up with Buveur.

i rest my case!

Choccy biscuits all eaten! Moved on to valium!

I agree, seemed like slow motion but as you say fair play to the winner although cant see it beating either again

Pere, have you read the update on the RP site? they were told they were too big and stiff during the week and despite amendments the BHA still thought they were too big on Sat! Now they have been ordered to change them before the next meeting.

I thought they all looked to be jumping "big" and quite a few in the biggun didnt give their running. I see a few jocks did complain and Henderson has offered it as an excuse for Might Bite which ran a stone wrong. The times reflected it as they had to jump up and down rather than across. I didnt think Bristol could possibly win on that ground against the big 2 but the slower jumping and thus slower pace suited him. Im glad somethings come up as i was baffled about Mite Bites performance...it shouldnt be last!

I speak utter nonsense? "If owners etc are not bothered about the money aspect of the game then why just keep it as a pet and not run it at all?"...now id say thats utter nonsense!

As i said before , you have never owned a horse have you? 1st rule of ownership...WRITE OFF YOUR INVESTMENT = cost of horse plus training fees plus vets bills plus transport plus feed plus % towards running costs plus entry fees plus stabling (at course) fees = TOTAL LOSS!!!! Even when you win youre lucky to end up with 35% OF THE WINNINGS BY THE TIME THE JOCKEY, TRAINER AND STAFF (QUITE RIGHTLY SO FOR STAFF) TAKE THEIR SHARE.

Is this utter nonsense or simply something you dont know or understand. You my friend are in cloud cuckoo land.

For the last time (and ask any owner), they make a loss, they expect to make a loss...so WHY the outlay? prestiege, the thrill of ownership, the day at the races, the visits to the stables (come to lambourn, youd be made very welcome..err probably not!), having a bet on YOUR horse, the chat with the jockeys, the thrill of maybe on tele and of course the dream of winning a big one!

So you and Joes bitter and twisted view thats its money money money is totally wrong. Dont tar everyboard with your brush, millions love their racing and it could do without heartless, self centred chaps like you two!

And if you see when Joes Poll thread appears, it is just after his mud slinging at me when i pointed out owners and punters do care about their horses. He was trying to be sarcastic with the poll to prove a point! and the irony is that the brain of britain, SS (or TRV as most know him) has bought it , hook, line and sinker! Happy days!

"But this is not an investment for the faint-hearted. You are unlikely to make a fortune and could end up losing a huge amount of money. The Racehorse Owners Association says that for every £100 of annual outlay (not including the purchase cost of the horse), a racehorse owner is likely to see a return of just £21" Daily Telegraph

.

Owners make money? Are you kidding? Ever owned a horse? less than 10% of owners make money. This is where avid punters are wrong. Certainly in the jumps world its almost impossible to make money as an owner...ask JP...he writes off millions every year fgs! Bsically a trainer will tell you to write off your investment from day 1. Sure you may have a pick up or two from the odd bet and/or prize money...my 4 friends had a horse once (on the flat) called Salty Jack with Vic Soane and then David Elsworth (after Vic pulled off his coup with My Best Valentine in the Prix D'Abbeye in Paris...we had been backing it at 100/1 the last 3 weeks before the race, Vic had backed it all year!.... and gave up training there and then!). Now Jack was a damn good horse in its grade (once 2nd in the Bunbury Cup in 1999 and always in the big hcaps). It won £109k in prize money...total cost to them £174k, so even with a few win bets (had a better strike record than most) they were vastly out of pocket! But that wasnt why they were in the game, Yes the thrills and spills of raceday and betting was a magnet but it was to see their boy run. Thats why they were in it. They were always over in lambourn with the kids etc...it was a family horse. Theyve owned many more since, none particularly successful, but they have had immense joy and worth every penny of the huge loss theyve mad! point was, they could afford it so money DIDNT matter and thats what youll find with most owners.

So money obnly makes some peoples world go round and you have picked the wron sport. even Coolmore return a huge loss each year as does Godolphin.

So yes i believe in lies and therefore must be a buffoon, but you and Joe know absolutely nothing about sport. all you know and feed is the greed and obsession that some sports attract (please see Joes ridiculous poll about wishing horses to fall).

nd for the record Many Clouds, this one of my favourite horses and he litteraly ran his heart out doing what he loved. The sherwoods are still devaststed and everyone in the yard was in rears. So not sure whst the ooint of posting this video? Many horses dont lice past 4...clouds had a long and happy career

What. A load of old bAilocks! You dont give a toss about anything or snybody excrpt your pocket! And the funfair that is the aw suits your lack of racing knowledge as uou can dometimes guess whos turn it is!

Ive watched you over the years try and kill any racing debate on here with your acid comments and bating. And before you post your sillu fishing video sgain, grow up! If you hate racing thst much stop posting and switch to a proper troll site.

And yes im expecting your usual tirade of abuse that inevitably will follow.

we all have different opinions but i find your guesstimates questionable especially about triers and non triers. Eg a Group 1 race where the owners are largely non gamblers and price money not important. they will ALL be trying their hardest as owners tend to be sportsmen (although stinking rich!) and its all about prestiege whereas a class 6, 80% (my guestimate!) wont be trying as they are desperate to fiddle their handicap marks for another day! Who would you trust more, John Gosden or David Evans?

Also "cruel" and "flogging knackered horses" seems harsh to jumps. Those class 6 horses arent good enough to run so they are being flogged to death to land a coup! Also flat horses are routinely dropped after their 3 year old career and only the best get to breed, the majority ending up in (fantastic) places like Greatwood or at worst, on the menu in Paris or Barcelona! Jump horses run for years and years as there is no money attached to breeding as they have had their gear removed. season after season you see the horses and thats why there is a greater affinity between jump horses and fans than flat.

Also im guessing you have never been to a jumps yard? The lads and girls love their horses and so do the owners with most horses spending the summer with their owners and not at the racing stables. One of the best trainers ever, Nicky henderson is an emotional man and cares about every horse whether they are in care or not. Evans will run them over and over again til they drop. The jumps crowd also seem to show more empathy with a horse and jockey. If a horse falls the crowd do not run off to collect their winnings or have a drink, they wait to see its ok. i remember Atlaal, a huge outsider for John Jenkings, falling athe 2nd last at Ascot after leading the classy grade 1 field to the 2nd last. Sadly the screens went up and stayed up for 25 mins with everyone fearing the worse. NOONE left the stands despite the hot fav winning and you could hear a pin drop. And ill never forget the small ripple of applause that started and turned into a crescendo as the screens were removed and the horse got up. the horse had been badly winded. But the site of 4 or 5 stable girls hugging in tears and Jenkins acknowledging the crowd through his own tears will live with me for a long time. The horse was led back in front of the stands with everyone cheering and clapping as if it had won the Gold Cup.

But your comment i think, sums up the difference in me and you ie "So what if its sand /grass or whatever and whatever level c1 c7 Its just a race between similar level horses where there is an outcome be it for 2k or 100k" You are obviously only interested in the betting and not the sport itself. i love the sport and betting is a pastime but going to the races ( i go to approx 50 meetings a year), the thrill of it, the love and care about the horses, the near madness daredevil of the jump jockey makes it an amazing sport. yes, betting is fun, but not the be all and end all, thus watching a class 6 on a flapping track is not my cup of tea

Cart horses Joe? And these 0-55 races on the AW are sheer quality! saw a meeting at wolv two weeks ago with 5 class 6 and 2 class 5...quality!

And if you take the time to work out who CAN jump, you will win money! Royal Ascot V Cheltenham? No contest, although at Ascot you can see famed horse racing fan and intellectual Tommy Robinson (or Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon, known by the pseudonym Tommy Robinson, and previously as Andrew McMaster and Paul Harris) scrapping with other intellectuals!

I actually like both but am fed up with flat racing being swamped by AW non events that are essentially run to keep the bookies open so they can rob the poor with their FOBTs. i am a member at Windsor and Sandown, my favourite tracks!

worse bookings in the world and every time I see that self loving twzt Mr Burns (Fred Done)i want to punch it. Their staff cant take a bet over 320 from a stranger without ringing, which takes ages and you miss the price anyway!

So can they produce a doc to show that refunded every single customer for this glitch in that game in January? No i betfred they cant (similar spelling)...surely if this glitch is genuine, they must refund EVERYONE

Well that was an anticlimax. Thank goodness for Soupy Soups coming 2nd at 7/1 ew...mind you it was backed off the boards to 7/2 but soundly beaten. was right about Zuphyr...its a dog nut Moores then gets beat by a 66/1 and 16/1 shot! Doh! Peppy was a strange race at a crawl til they sprinted to the last. Wont be backing it again. Hillcrest should have won and would have if Scudamore was on ours. I like Gethings but hes cost Stuart a few times now...very weak in a driving finish but good horseman. Jersey ran into one of the good Drs "improvers" and i will back Jersey again as did nothing wrong. so only a small draw on a losing day but reduced damage by staking plan.

id be interested in backing the paper fav of Johnstons against Cumanis in the 530 as the money on "Filthys" horse is plain stupid and sentimental and Johnstons shouldnt be 14/1...my first ever bet at wolverhampton...God i must be bored or stupid or both...I know boringly stupid. Now wheres that paint i left drying!

Seriously guys ,?while i think TRV is an idiot i also think he suffers from a. conditcalled “attention deficit” also known as “look at me syndrome” which is a mental health issue so i will stop with any more jibes. He needs help and i urge him to get some.

Daveros, i filly sipport you and understand where you are coming from. I suffered the same from trolls like TRV who as you say would know what a horse looks like!

I ran a service for more than 13 years that slways provided a healthy profit yet i had idiots like TRV queing up to have a go!

I found your posts informative and amusing and its a shame the trolls are going to win again.

Good luck mate