BEST of the BETS

Monte Cristo
IMPERIAL AURA (Nap)
Count Meribel
Santini
King Roland
Paisley Park
Ainchea

Thanks.

Good luck, JT. I was already looking at this one as one of 6 runners Alan King has sent to Doncaster. King has had a very good record on this weekend over the years both at Doncaster at Cheltenham, no runners this time at Cheltenham but he has 6 at Donny. His record at this meeting over last 5 years is 7 from 32 (+18 LSP). Not won this bumper yet but his 3 single digit priced runners in this have finished 4th, 4th and 2nd.

Bet 23

Imperial Aura (1:15 Cheltenham)

LSP: -5.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

1:15 Cheltenham - ignoring the trends in backing IMPERIAL AURA, as favourites have a poor record in this race. No favourite has won this since Ping Pong Sivola in 2009, and in last 10 years only one favourite has managed to place (last year). But I can’t ignore selection’s last run in a novice here over 3 mile 2 furlongs. He was beaten 8 lengths by 149-rated Pym and was 10 lengths clear of 3rd placed Aye Aye Charlie (rated 134 and receiving 5 lbs from front two), so on that evidence it is not hard to see that selection’s mark of 136 looks lenient, we’ll see if that is the case. Top weight Jarvey’s Plate was a bit disappointing when last of 4 finishers in Feltham, but he has won around here over hurdles and could run better than his price of 33/1 if jumping better. And maybe worth keeping an eye on betting for McManus horse Sully D’Oc Aa, can’t be fancied on recent form but has dropped to a handy mark and would be interesting if money comes for it (only a small move so far) as Honeyball is in great form at the moment.

Selection - Imperial Aura @ 11/4

Good luck.

Cheltenham

12:40 Monte Cristo
1:15 IMPERIAL AURA (Nap)
1:50 Count Meribel
2:25 Santini

Good luck Stainless and everyone else.

Just out of places again, another 4th.

LSP: -5.71 (win), -10.11 (place)

Bet 22

Movie Legend (1:50 Doncaster)

LSP: -4.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

1:50 Doncaster

My shortlist - Movie Legend, Wishfull Dreaming

Two previous winners of this in Cracking Find and Duke Of Navan both look potentially well handicapped but on recent form both have questions to answer. MOVIE LEGEND was only 6th in this race two years ago but that was on soft going, he has since won over c&d last March on better going and is now down to same winning mark. CF was a close 3rd behind him that day and is 8 lbs better off and is entitled to turn it around on that evidence, but his tailed off efforts on last two runs make him a risky favourite. Selection has been in better form with 4th of 13 and 3rd of 6 in two runs this season. He is pretty consistent and has won or placed on 60% (15 from 25) of his runs at a single figure price. Return of Leighton Aspell, who is 6 from 19 (+8 LSP) at Doncaster over last two years, is also a positive. His record on this horse is 23P213122110 (last unplaced effort was a big price). Other horse on my shortlist Wishfull Dreaming is also very consistent, but is still 5 lbs higher than his last win though he has continued to run well off this mark. At bigger prices, Ashoka would have a squeak if returning to form but his 3 runs so far this season have been very poor.

Selection - Movie Legend @ 13/2

Good luck.

Ran ok (went as short as 5.5 in running), but finished out of places in 4th. Not having much luck as once again the horse 2nd on my shortlist wins, when I leave them because the price looks short they win and when I back them then the ones I thought had a chance at bigger price win lol.

LSP: -4.71 (win), -9.11 (place)

Bet 21

Cougars Gold (2:35 Fakenham)

LSP: -3.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

Very disappointed with yesterday’s result, it had every chance but the horse or jockey didn’t seem to want to go past the winner, but I only have myself to blame for backing an odds on shot on debut.

LSP: -3.71 (win), -8.11 (place)

Moving on,

2:35 Fakenham - COUGARS GOLD ran well for me last time so I am sticking with him even though it is a competitive race. He has dropped another 1 lb since his last run and is now just 2 lbs higher than his last win (March 2019). Stays well, and has won at up to 3 miles so this step back up in trip should suit. Running at Fakenham for first time, but trainer has a good record here. Cap Du Nord should be thereabouts as he has run well on both previous visits here, I would have backed him had a been an each way price but 2/1 is a bit too short in my opinion.

Selection - Cougars Gold @ 18/1 (Ladbrokes, other bookies are quite a bit shorter)

Good luck.

Bet 20

Stormy Mountain (5:30 Kempton)

LSP: -2.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

5:30 Kempton - backing a newcomer at odds on is probably not a good thing in long run, but I feel this is a weak race and Godolphin newcomer STORMY MOUNTAIN may not need to be anything special to win this. Charlie Appleby is 10 from 25 (+8 LSP) with January debuts including 3 from 5 this year. Below is the RPR figure and placing for all his debutants in January from this year and last year.

One Vision (85) won
Kinver Edge (78) 4th
American Graffiti (80) 2nd
Dawn Crusade (76) 2nd
Al Maysan (83) won
Royal Castle (71) 4th
Bright Melody (82) won
Distant Goddess (66) 3rd
Endless Echoes (72) won

Only 1 below 70 rating in there. The 2nd favourite Lottie Marie recorded a RPR of 67 over c&d last time, so I feel if Stormy Mountain runs to average of her stable newcomers then the rest have to improve significantly. Track shouldn’t be a problem, selection’s sire Dark Angel is 7 from 52 (+13 LSP) with newcomers here.

Of course there are no certainties, especially first time, and if selection turns out to be below average then it’s an open race with likes of No Nay Bella also capable of improving.

It’s a restrictive price, but maybe worth putting it in a double with something.

Selection - Stormy Mountain @ 8/11

Good luck.

That’s sad news, he will do well to be back in time for Cheltenham.

Poor run, always towards the back.

LSP: -2.71 (win), -8.36 (place)

Bet 19

Boulting For Glory (4:30 Exeter)

LSP: -1.08

Wins - 6/4,11/8,13/2,15/8,4/6

A 3rd inspection planned at 11 AM, so not sure the meeting will go ahead but I have backed one in the bumper.

4:30 Exeter - some interesting newcomers, but I think experience will be handy especially in these conditions. BOULTING FOR GLORY cost a €100,000 and finished 4th (5/1, beaten 18 lengths) on debut on heavy going at Wincanton last month. It wasn’t a bad run as the front two had the benefit of experience, and with the usual 2nd time improvement you would expect this one to go close. Neil King does well in these races and his runners show improvement 2nd time out. Mountain Leopard has also shown good form in two bumpers but I feel carrying a penalty in a competitive field like this makes things difficult. Another possible at a bigger price is Lamanver Storm, who was very disappointing when sent off favourite on debut but did better next time. He needs to improve again but it’s not impossible, he comes from a good family, Tom Lacey also trained two of his half-sisters Lamanver Alchemy (won on 3rd start) and Lamanver Odyssey (won on 2nd start) and won bumpers with them.

Selection - Boulting For Glory @ 10/3

Good luck.

3 winners, good profit on the day.

Thanks everyone.

Stainless, yes I noticed, looking forward to it, I know I will have to study extra hard for it.

Only the short priced winner Clondaw Caitlin today. Black Panther got placed at 13/2. 3:00 race I didn’t fancy them at all and it looked a false favourite, yet foolishly I still put it in my placepot - had all others in with Dunly to go in the last.