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Daily selectionsYesterday’s selection finished 5th.
LSP: -1.27 (win), -5.02 (place)
6:30 Newcastle - poor race as most of these find winning difficult. One of the favourites Puchita is a 30-race maiden, 16 of those were in class 6 so she has had plenty of chances, she often places though and trainer is in good form with 2 wins and 2 2nds from his last 6 runners and she has to be respected as she is Hugh Taylor’s selection. Other favourite Gunmaker has 1 win from 32 and he seems better over 7 furlongs. Lord Of The Glen usually runs well here and is a possible but he also hasn’t won for nearly 2 years. Closely matched with him on last race is my selection AVENUE OF STARS, who is 3 lbs better off today for finishing 1 1/2 behind, but he was drawn on the wrong side last time and is a bit better drawn today, before that he had been running over 7 furlongs (all 5 wins have come over 6f) so I think there is a good chance he could go well. He is now 5 lbs lower than his last win which came over this c&d almost exactly a year ago.
Selection - Avenue Of Stars @ 9/2
Good luck. -
Daily selectionsShort of time so not giving detailed reasoning.
2:50 Newbury - backed ROYAL RUBY despite the drift in betting. Unproven on heavy going, that would explain the drift, but his sire Yeats does get plenty of heavy going winners so there is hope, his form is good enough to competitive in this. Dangers include Glockenspiel and Mon Palois, latter might have been a selection at earlier price as he has dropped to a good mark but I feel the value has gone now.
Selection - Royal Ruby @ 13/2
Good luck. -
Daily selections5:00 Chelmsford - poor race, made trickier by Ben Haslam having the first two in betting. Haslam’s last runner at Chelmsford was over 4 years ago (finished 2nd of 5, 2/1), and now he has 2 in one race so don’t know what to make of it, but anyway I want to look for bigger prices in a race like this. HIGHWAY ROBBERY was only 6th of 9 (11 lengths) over c&d last time, but has shown enough at this level, like his 3rd place at Wolverhampton in August, to suggest he can be competitive. Does clearly need to improve from last run though, so where do I think that improvement may come from? One thing I find at this low level, change of headgear can often bring about improvement, selection has been wearing cheek pieces for his last 10 runs, so it maybe interesting that they have been left off today. Trainer Julia Feilden’s record on first run after the cheekpieces are taken off is 14 from 73 (+147 LSP), that maybe a coincidence as there could be other factors for that good record, but it’s interesting anyway. Other thing that interests me is the jockey change, conditional jockey is 0 from 5 for the trainer but couple of those placed. Jockey’s overall record isn’t great but he seems to do particularly well at this track, 8 wins (14 other placed) from 60 (+9 LSP). On the negative side, trainer’s record here is poor, only 3 wins from 134, but all 3 of those wins were with horses that had run over c&d on their previous run (20 runners). Narrowing it even further only 10 of those also had a jockey change from previous run and the record reads 2213188410, of the 3 that failed to make the frame two were priced 25/1+. All of that might not mean anything but I think it’s interesting the trainer is running him here again, and with jockey change and headgear left off there is some improvement possible. As always, stakes should be kept small in a race like this.
Selection - Highway Robbery @ 14/1
Good luck. -
BA CurtisI was going to post about him earlier today, Ben Curtis really is having an incredible run at the moment. Two more winners today, that makes it 22 winners in first 12 days of the year. And as I posted on my thread last week, he has got at least one winner every day he has had a ride this year so far. In last 17/18 years only a couple of jockeys have ridden more than 30 winners in January, Luke Morris (34 in 2015) and McCoy (32 in 2011), 19 more days to go this month so good chance Curtis can beat those numbers.
And he is particularly good on favourites, among jockeys who have ridden 500+ favourites he has the highest ROI. I will post the list of top ones if I get the chance. -
Daily selectionsLast, some way adrift of other 4 :( Taking a few days break after this.
LSP: +0.73 (win), -3.02 (place) -
Daily selections1:55 Newcastle - 3 of the 5 runners are last time out winners, but I have gone with one that is yet to win this season. WINNING STREAK is very closely matched with Dark Regard on their running at Wolverhampton in November, he is 4 lbs better off for finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind DR. Selection was disappointing at Lingfield last time when sent off favourite, but he did have a poor draw that kept him wide all the way. In-form Ben Curtis riding for first time is also a positive for me, Curtis has ridden at least one winner everyday so far this year, and on his last 9 visits to Newcastle he has 16 winners from 52 (+20 LSP). Richard Fahey has won the race for last two years so his runner Bendy Spirit has to be respected after an easy win in lower class last time, but best piece of form In my opinion is that Wolverhampton race involving Dark Regard and Winning Streak as that looked a very strong nursery so my choice of selection was between these two. That race was over 6 furlongs, so it’s a question of which one of the two will be better suited by the extra furlong, Winning Streak’s dam was a 6 times winner over a mile, albeit at a low level (class 5/6) and he is also related to other mile winners so a good chance that he will be suited by step up in trip.
Selection - Winning Streak @ 5/1
Good luck.
