BEST of the BETS

Thanks Malcolm, Ribot

The Coffee Pod (11/2 SP) finished 3rd of 4 in a bunch finish. Not going well with just 1 winner from 12 bets this year but I will keep trying.

Bet #13 - 6:20 Carlisle - Hot Team @ 4/1

Hot Team is usually thereabouts, has a 43% place strike rate from 14 handicaps he has run in this year and he looks set to run well again at a course he has already won this season. Although he is 11 lbs higher than that win here in May, he did win that race by 8 and half lengths and he has since then also won easily at Hamilton from 5 lbs lower than today. Has a good record at Hamilton with 4 wins there, form often transfers well between Hamilton and Carlisle so I am hopeful he will run well.

Bet #1
The Coffee Pod (7:25 Windsor)
LSP:

Thanks Ribot, Malcolm.

Sennockian (8/1 SP) was well beaten in finishing 10/13.

Bet #12 - 7:25 Windsor - The Coffee Pod @ 3/1

Not a confident choice as I am not sure how the pace will work out in this small field, the confirmed front runner Almaty Star is likely to try and make all but his turf form doesn't look strong enough to suggest he can hold on against this opposition, so I am hoping my selection will be the one to take advantage if and when AS gives way.

I am mainly going on possible improvement that The Coffee Pod still might have. The only 3yo in the race, he has only had 13 races so far winning two of them. He has shown potential from the start of his career, finishing 3rd on debut in class 2 novice at Nottingham behind a couple with placed form, the first two from that race are now rated 72 & 95 so bit of mixed bag with how that form worked out but enough to suggest The Coffee Pod can be competitive from his current mark of 80. Also ran ok enough in a class 2 handicap at York when finishing 7/17 from 1 lb higher mark.

Bet #11 - 6:45 Wolverhampton - Sennockian @ 17/2

Nice prize on offer for this class 4. Sennockian was tailed off at Haydock last month but he has never been much good on turf. Different proposition on all weather and he showed a return to form by going close at Newcastle earlier in the week off same mark. He has finished out of places only once from 6 runs on AW.

A few in this race have won in this class or higher, but selection is one of only two that have done it on the all weather, he has won 3 times. With most bookies offering 4 places I thought about backing e/w but I am trying to stick with backing win only for now so that's what I have done.

Berkshire Nugget is yet to win but he is pretty consistent so I rate him as the main danger.

Thanks Ribot, Malcolm, Eeza.

The favourite lost, but sadly it wasn't one of mine that beat it. My two finished 5th (Rival 10/3 SP) & 3rd (James Park Woods 7/1 SP).

Bet #10 - 7:00 Chepstow - 60/40 split, Rival (0.6 pt win @ 6/1) & James Park Woods (0.4 pt win @ 12/1)

Chances are that Kalama Sunrise will complete the 5-timer, but odds of 4/7 look too short which has made me look at possible value in couple of others against it. Neither of these selections is a frequent winner, JPW has a win record of 1 from 40 and Rival has just one win in his last 25 races, but both are potentially on good marks as they have been rated much higher in past. JPW is 32 lbs lower than his career-high mark of 83 from 5 years ago, and Rival was rated 28 lbs higher 3 years ago. And both come here in reasonably good form, Rival was narrowly beaten at Windsor last week and is due to go up 2 lbs. JPW placed 3/12 when last seen in May.

Both only hopeful choices but they are the ones I see as being capable of giving the favourite a race.

Thanks Ribot, Malcolm.

Barrier (5/1 SP) could finish only 6th of 12.

Thanks Ribot, Malcolm

Bet #9 - 5:15 Limerick - Barrier @ 6/1 generally (8/1 available with Bet365)

5 of these ran in the CD handicap (0-70) 25 days ago, including Killeemore Lad & Curious Bride who finished 1st & 2nd in that race and are prominent in betting here. But this is a 0-85 and looks a much stronger race on paper, so I am looking away from CD form and siding with the unexposed filly Barrier.

The 4yo got her first flat win when stepped up to 14f at Gowran Park earlier in the season. That win was on Soft going but she has been running on Good over jumps since then and also has placed form on G/F from last season. There are G/F going winners in family including her dam, so I don't think quicker going is a problem. She ran ok when finishing in midfield stepped up to 2 miles in a hotter race on the Derby weekend at the Curragh, and should find this more her level.

She is unexposed, having run in just 5 handicaps so far including that one win earlier in the season. She comes from a good family, dam was a handicap winner up to OR 82, and related to 3 other 80+ winners, 2nd dam was a Listed winner. Australia/Fastnet Rock nicks have produced a few winners including the recent Ribblesdale scorer Port Fairy.

It is a competitive looking race, but I am hoping Barrier has improvement to come.

Thanks Malcolm. Pleased to finally get my first winner of the year haha. There was a Rule 4 of 10p in £ on last night's price so worked out at 9/4. Haven't watched the race yet, but he seems to have won well, Pisanello also got placed.

Thanks Malcolm.

Bet #8 - 3:15 Hamilton - Aragon Castle @ 5/2

Yet to win in 3 runs this year, but latest run was a career best when going down narrowly in a competitive looking class 4 at Goodwood. Back up to class 2 tomorrow, but I don't think that is a problem as he ran well in class 2 nurseries at York last season. Has a nice pedigree, and although he hasn't yet delivered the wins expected of him, there is still time and I think there is better to come from him.

Pisanello likes this course & distance and is 2 from 2 over it (has weakened late over two tries over half a furlong further here), I think he could run well for a place but is 7 now and has never won off a mark this high.

The main danger wins, my selection nowhere.

Thanks Enzo

Bet #7 - 2:15 Curragh - Commanche Falls @ 6/4

Age trends for this race are against my selection, as at 7 years Commanche Falls is the joint oldest in the race and it hasn't been won by oldest horse in race since Osterhase back in 2006. But like CF, Osterhase was also a previous winner of the race. CF was a comfortable winner of this race last year before going on to win at up to Group 3 level. He does have a 5 lbs penalty for that win but that may not be enough to prevent a repeat given his winning margin of length and quarter in last year's race.

He has had a similar preparation to last year having run again in Abernant and Duke of York, though he was below par in both those races compared to placed efforts last year, he showed he was back to his best when winning 2nd in a stronger Listed race at Haydock last time.

He is a regular winner with strike rate of above 30% and has gone winless for more than 4 races only twice in his career, he is on a losing run of 4 this time and hopefully can end that here. Trainer form is reasonable, 1 of only 3 in this race that have had a winner within last fortnight.

There maybe some e/w value in Tango Flare at double figure price as he was 2 1/2 4th in this race last year and has a 5 lbs pull with the winner this time, but I am not sure that will be enough for a win even with trying headgear for first time. Ano Syra has a chance on the ratings but she flopped last time and trainer hasn't had a winner for over a month. So I see the 3yo My Mate Alfie as the main danger, although he is only 1 from 10 he has been running consistently well at this kind of level since application of blinkers and could be one for the forecast spot.

Thanks Malcolm.

First bet back was no good, Mandega went off at 28/1 and finished only 7th of 8.

Hi everyone, I hope you are all well. My first bet in over 5 months (win record for the year stands at 0 from 5 so far), had a lot of personal stuff going on and been busy with new job and ended up losing interest in racing. Looking to get back into it now but probably won't be posting as much as before.

Bet #6 - 2:10 Nottingham - Mandega @ 5/1

Mandega ran well on his 2LR (his last run on the flat), when beaten about 3 lengths in finishing 3/8 @ 14/1 on what was his first run of season. Form of race has worked out well with the race winner Baltic winning again next time from 7 lbs higher mark, and runner up has placed on next two runs from 1 lb higher. Mandega has stayed on same mark of 68, even the horses who finished behind him in that race have done well with 1 win and 2 places from 5 runs between them, so form looks ok.

Selection was a 3 times winner in France at up to 10f, but is yet to win in this country in 10 starts including in 5 handicaps. But his handicap mark has dropped from mid 70s that he was running off last summer, and that first run of this season was an encouraging effort stepped up to mile and half for first time, and that run suggests this another two furlongs may also help, so I am hoping he will run well.

Well done Malcolm, and all the winners.

Mr Incredible (Nap)

Thank you Malcolm for a great competition. Sorry I forgot to post for last few races, just been very busy with other things. Good luck all.

Champagne Mystery

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.

Lively Citizen

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.

Flegmatik

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.

Yeah Man

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.