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PonteThanks Malcolm.
That was very unlucky, La Pulga somehow manages to lose the race, £874 traded @ 1.03, none of it was mine unfortunately. Only consolation is that having backed it for 2 places I got most of my stake back, place BSP was 1.98 so only a 0.02 pt loss on the race but still painful to come so close to winning. -
Haydock saturdayPoor selection today, raced in last place for most of the way, 3 of his rivals dropping out allowed him to finish a well beaten 5th.
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Haydock saturdayThanks everyone. Not as confident about today's but hoping he runs well.
Bet #61 - 4:05 Perth - Western Run, 50/50 split win & 3 places (win @ 17/2, 3 places @ BSP)
Very risky one as my selection is 0 from 13 (placed 3 times) over fences so it's a big ask for him to win his first chase in a race like this, but I do think he is quite well handicapped now and am hopeful he can place at least. Race trends are against him as no horse rated below 127 has won this race since 2010, but this is a smaller field than most years and as 3 of the 8 runners are below that mark I am prepared to overlook that trend.
Couple of falls early in his career may have affected his confidence and he can make mistakes, but he has run quite well when able to put in a clear round. He was only narrowly beaten in a novice chase at Cartmel this time last year, the winner who was conceding 6 lbs to Western went on to win his next 3 and is now rated 136, so that makes Western Run's OR at that time of 130 look about right. He didn't run up to expectations next time when sent off favourite for a class 2 handicap just two days later. Couple of hurdles runs after being switched to Stuart Crawford saw his mark drop further before joining his current trainer Mike Smith.
He won a couple of point to points this spring, and ran ok here last month when finishing 2nd of 3 runners, but handicapper has dropped him another 2 lbs to 122. He looks well handicapped now on his best form, it is a competitive race but I have doubts about a few of the others too so I think he could run well. Mike Smith has only had one runner in this race before, that finished 4th @ 25/1 (OR 118), admittedly only 5 of the 10 runners finished that year, but I think he will be hopeful of picking up some prize money again. Former winner of the race and current favourite Landofsmiles also has a good chance. -
Haydock saturdayThanks SW. 3rd @ 20/1, I will take that. I think O'Meara will get a win from him this year, it's just a question of finding the right race for him.
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Where do we go from hereThanks . I am ok but it has been a difficult year on a personal level, I will PM you.
Doing on the horses last few days, I post on another forum now. This is what I have backed today.
A difficult decision to bet today, but hopefully can end the month on a high.
Bet #52 - 7:40 Warwick - Lady Reset @ 3/1
Lady Reset has a very good strike rate both on flat and over jumps, having won 9 of her 39 starts to date. Competing well on flat from marks of mid 70s she has switched between two codes seamlessly. She has run in 14 handicap hurdles so far, winning 4 of them. Interestingly all 4 of these wins have come following a run on the flat, that's 4 wins from just 5 runs when following a run on the flat compared to 0 from 9 following a hurdles race. This stat improves to 4 from 4 when she has run within 8 days of flat run. So it has to be seen as a positive that she is running here just 6 days after a close 4th of 12 on the flat. She has also won 4 times in month of May (from 11 runs), 3 times on flat and once over hurdles last year.
Her 4 hurdles wins have come from marks of 96, 97, 101 & 104 so there has been a steady progression. There's a limit to how much any horse can improve though and as she is on 110 now, this is the reason it took me so long to decide whether to back her or not, I think she can still improve but it's hard to be sure.
Other reason for doubts is there are a couple of others who still look on good marks to me, but as there are question marks against those too I decided to take a chance in the end, it's all a case of weighing up risks. For interest, the two that I feel are still well treated are Fenney Brook & Prime Time Lady, but doubts against them are that Fenney is returning from 6 months off over a trip that maybe too short for her. PT Lady is potentially on a good mark having dropped to 100 now from her initial mark of 112, but she finished only 10th of 12 last time and I would like to see her in better form before taking a risk. -
Where do we go from hereJust came across this as I rarely look in here now, but feel sad this is what the site has come to having been one of the best horseracing forums at one time with lots of write ups and discussions. I have known Malcolm from AOL message board days from more than 20 years ago, and many of us moved to this forum when message boards closed. I posted under Formstudent name on old site and was among top contributors even after moving to new site until deciding to stop posting due to the nonsense that was going on here.
Mugz is right that forums no longer have the appeal that they used to due to other social media platforms. But it also didn't help that some individuals (it might have been just one person using multiple IDs) were allowed to wreck the forum 3 years ago that saw most of the regular posters leave and set up another forum. I did my best to not get involved and kept posting on my thread, for a time it was the only thread on here that had any horse racing discussion, but I had enough when they decided to drag my thread into it too. I and many others weren't happy at the time with what happened. Anyway it's in the past now and I do hope this forum can keep going for its remaining members.
