BEST of the BETS

Difficult decision today too, price has come down to 12/1 from 16/1 at least in part due to couple of non runners. I am wondering if price isn't a bit short in a very competitive 20-runner sprint handicap but 12/1 just about enables a bet for me, I probably would have left it alone if it was any shorter than this.

Bet #81 - 4:55 York - Lullaby Bay, e/w @ 12/1 (most bookies paying 5 places, a few paying 6)

Lullaby Bay completed a hat trick of wins over straight 5 (Beverley, Thirsk, Ayr) in spring of last year. She was tried in Listed races after that and struggled at that level, but back in handicap company she continued to run well without winning. Moved to Kevin Ryan (from Karl Burke) at start of this season, but stayed in same ownership of Bearstone Stud, she is yet to strike form in 3 runs but has come on with each run, while dropping 6lbs in the handicap. Her latest was a 9th of 11, but beaten just over 3 lengths, it was her best run so far this season and it earned her a 3 lbs drop.

She is on a mark of 76 now, 1 lb below last of her 3 wins. She has won on both Good and Soft going, so the forecast rain this afternoon shouldn't be a problem if it changes the going, whereas there are a few others in race who have done most of their winning on G/F so maybe more affected by rain. She has run well on only previous visit to this course, beaten less than a length and half in finishing 6th of 15 in class 3 handicap from a 10 lbs higher mark than today.

She is from a nice sprinting family, her 2nd dam Palace Affair won 5 times at Listed level, including the Summer Stakes (6f) on this card for two years in a row. Family also includes horses that improved with age, among those her half-brother Raasel who progressed from handicaps to win at up to Group 3 level. So I am hopeful there is still some possibility of further improvement in her as she is still fairly lightly raced.

Kevin Ryan is 0 from 8 in this race but a couple placed, including 11/1 2nd last year (he had 3 in the race last year). There are some negatives as she is yet to hit form and it's a very competitive race, therefore my hope is more for a place than a win.