BEST of the BETS

Bet 5

Dublin Four (5:00 Southwell)

LSP: -4.00

Just out of places in 4th.

LSP: -24.97 (win), -14.84 (place)

Here’s today’s loser

5:00 Southwell - DUBLIN FOUR, with a top rating of 118, sets a good standard in this maiden hurdle, 3 lbs clear of his main rival so I am a bit surprised he is not favourite. Graeme McPherson has a 19.77% strike rate here (17 from 86, +76 LSP), which is double of his overall SR of 9.9%, had a 20/1 winner on the flat here last week (Londonia, who runs again today in 5:30 race). Selection has run ok in 3 handicap hurdles and now drops in class. McPherson is 4 from 6 (won with last 4 at prices of 2/1, 3/1, 6/4 & 13/8) when he drops them into maiden company after running in handicap hurdles, this looks a significant stat when you consider that he has had a total of just 8 wins (from 99 runs) in maiden hurdles. Fame And Hope, who finished 2nd on her only start in point to points, could run better than her price of 16/1 here.

Selection - Dublin Four @ 2/1

Good luck.

Bet 4

Mount Mogan (3:55 Wolverhampton)

LSP: -3.00

Never nearer 6th.

LSP: -23.97 (win), -13.84 (place)

3:55 Wolverhampton - Ventura Bounty and Godfather both recorded easy wins in novice company last time, but MOUNT MOGAN brings the strongest handicap form having finished a close 2nd behind one completing a hat trick with 2 lengths back to 3rd, that looks very strong form. Before that he had beaten Godfather by 5 lengths on same terms over 6 furlongs here, yet the latter is shorter price today. That could be due to extra furlong as Godfather has proved himself over 7 furlongs but there is a bit of doubt about the selection’s stamina looking at the pedigree as in immediate family on dam side there are no winners at further than 6 furlongs, he really will need to stay as this looks like it’s going to be true run as a quite a few of these like to make the running. Ed Walker has a good record when stepping them up to 7 furlongs for first time though (9 from 56, +24 LSP). Walker also has an excellent record at Wolverhampton, 10 from 38 (+8.63) here over past year.

Selection - Mount Mogan @ 4/1

Good luck.

Just noticed, Walker has already had a winner at 12/1, grrrr didn’t back it.

Bet 3

Sepahi (8:30 Wolverhampton)

LSP: -2.00

Unplaced.

LSP: -22.97 (win), -12.84 (place)

Today’s selection

8:30 Wolverhampton - Sepahi @ 7/1

Short of time so not giving detailed reasoning. But interesting that it has been very well backed, first run for Shaun Keighley, and Josephine Gordon rides who has a very good record for trainer. Dropping back 2 furlongs but has won on only previous try at minimum distance. It looks a competitive race though despite being a class 6.

Good luck.

Another profitable day, well done.

HOME BEFORE DUSK (Nap)
Songo
Be Fair
Win Win Power
Chares
Tintoretto
Griggy

Thanks.

Bet 2

Home Before Dusk (5:15 Kempton)

LSP: -1.00

Was up with the pace till a furlong to go, but weakened to finish last but one.

LSP: -21.97 (win), -11.84 (place)

5:15 Kempton - Star Of Bengal is proven in class but was disappointing when last seen 5 months ago, and is up against a couple of progressive horses. Luckys Dream has won his last 3 at the distance at Chelmsford and Newcastle, he could improve again but is stepping up from class 4 to class 2. I prefer HOME BEFORE DUSK, who has won 4 of his last 7, he is also up in class but it’s not as big a jump as LD. He is also a course winner (last time), most of his wins have come over a mile but has won at this distance before so I don’t think it will be a problem.

Selection - Home Before Dusk @ 9/4

Good luck.

Brilliant, KJ, well done.

Thanks Mugz. Everyone should take part in this, and hopefully BHA will take people’s responses on board.

My main criticism of fixture list is most of the good meetings are run on Saturdays, leaving mostly poor quality for rest of week. From a betting point of view, it be good if some of these meetings are moved to other days.

Haha KJ, maybe.

7:45 Wolverhampton - its a very long shot, but I am hoping LILI WEN FACH will run better than last time. Finished last of 8 (beaten 9 lengths) last time on first run since joining Richard Price, was 7 lengths behind Lakeview last time and is 3 lbs better off today which may see her get a little closer. Trainer does occasionally get big priced winners, and is 4 from 34 (+1 LSP) on all the weather on 2nd run compared to 1 from 34 on first run. His last such winner was in April 2019, Medici Moon who was beaten 12 lengths on first run for trainer but won next time here at 20/1 (coincidentally from same rating as the selection). Booking of Hollie Doyle maybe a positive too, she is 3 from 26 (+24 LSP) for the trainer overall but 0 from 11 here.

Really not expecting anything, she is 80/1 for a reason and could easily finish last again, but there are one or two pieces of form from last season that make her look on a good mark.

Selection - Lili Wen Fach @ 80/1 (Bet365, others are only 50/1), 45/1 5 places with Bet365

Good luck.

Only 3rd behind the impressive winner. Market completely turned around as winner was heavily backed into favouritism with my one drifting.

I think the only way I will get one of my selections to win at the moment is if I start laying them lol.

LSP: -20.97 (win), -10.84 (place)

Well done, Peregrine.

Bet 1

Fortunate Fred (5:30 Huntingdon)

Last two months have been poor for me, hopefully March will be different. But starting with a short priced one so have to be careful.

5:30 Huntingdon - FORTUNATE FRED is related to a bumper winner, who also won over hurdles from a mark of 122. If selection is of similar ability then he should be capable of winning this. Ran well on debut over c&d when 3rd @ 16/1 (beaten 10 lengths), and may not need to improve a great deal. Jamie Snowden is 9 from 18 (+5 LSP) when he has the favourite in bumpers, improves to 9 from 13 if you exclude those making their debut. 2nd favourite is a newcomer from David Pipe, who has good record in bumpers overall, but is 0 from 6 (5 of them priced in single figures, 3 under 5/1, but none even placed) in them here at Huntingdon, so I am trying George Of Naunton for the forecast spot.

Selection - Fortunate Fred @ 11/10

Good luck.

Well done Stainless. And also to Aberdon for running him close. Good profit from both in what I thought was a difficult month, well it was for me.

February LSP = -15.47

Favourite wins, selection 2nd.

LSP: -19.97 (win), -11.00 (place)