BEST of the BETS

Nice place.

Bet 25

Kauto Riko (3:22 Kelso)

LSP: -14.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15, 4/1

Finished only 8th. Backed down to 7/1 but strange drift on exchange just before the off, drifted from 8.2 to around 15-16 from going into the stalls to the off. That’s not an excuse for disappointing run, just an observation.

LSP: -18.97 (win), -12.23 (place)

3:22 Kelso - KAUTO RIKO hasn’t won since December 2018 when winning a handicap chase off 137 at Haydock on heavy going, but he has had only 4 runs since then. Disappointing at Kempton last time but had run a blinder the time before when a close 2nd @ 100/1 in Peterborough Chase. Stepping up to this trip for first time, but I think he could improve for it, and return of Brian Hughes, who has been on board for selection’s last 4 wins (4 wins from 7 times he has ridden), is a positive too. Only the poor run last time is a negative. Top rated horses have a poor record in this race, only 2 wins from 11, 5 of the beaten top rated horses went off at odds on, that’s not to say the favourite can’t win today. But with the top 2 carrying penalties means that my selection is only 3 lbs behind the favourite and 1 lb ahead of the Nicholls’ horse, so should have every chance.

Selection - Kauto Riko @ 4/1

Good luck.

Looking at the result of last race, my guess is that it will be only be £8-9 of winning units.

Yeah just worked it out on tote site. It’s slow in updating today.

£19.70 going to last race

Sorry, I am just being slow lol. The 2nd favs must have unplaced.

If they didn’t load into stalls, surely they are non runners and those units will go on the 2nd favourite?

Bet 24

Percy Prosecco (6:00 Dundalk)

LSP: -13.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15, 4/1

Well done TL

6:00 Dundalk - unusual runner with Archie Watson sending one here, PERCY PROSECCO. Watson’s record in Ireland is not great with just 1 winner from 21 but almost all those runners have been in Listed or Group races, rare to see him send one over for a race with small prize money like this one. His record here at Dundalk is 2 placers (20/1 & 8/1) from 5 runners, but a couple of others at shorter prices were unplaced so bit of a mixed bag. This doesn’t look the strongest race as most of these have found winning difficult in recent times. Selection’s last run doesn’t look bad with a 5th of 13 (beaten 4 lengths) over 14 furlongs at Wolverhampton, both that run and earlier win over same distance he was staying on at end to suggest he will be suited by 2 miles. I hope I will have better luck than the last time I backed this horse, when it got beaten after going long odds on in running.

Selection - Percy Prosecco @ 12/1 (4 places on offer from Betfair and few others)

Good luck.

Ran ok, but only 2nd so it’s another loss. Good price for the place (3.51) on exchange though, big difference from what it would have paid at each way odds.

LSP: -17.97 (win), -11.23 (place)

Bet 23

Electron Bleu (2:50 Ludlow)

LSP: -12.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15, 4/1

Less said about yesterday’s selection the better, very disappointing 3rd.

LSP: -16.97 (win), -13.61 (place)

2:50 Ludlow - very open novice handicap, all 6 runners have a chance as the betting suggests. I just narrowly prefer ELECTRON BLEU (9/2), who ran a good 2nd in a novice hurdle last time on first run after a wind operation, I think he will go close if building on that.

Good luck.

Bet 22

Art Mauresque (5:20 Wincanton)

LSP: -11.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15, 4/1

5:20 Wincanton - ART MAURESQUE hasn’t won since October 2016, but of the 13 races he has run in since then 12 have been Graded or Listed races and other one a class 2 handicap, so he is the class horse in here and rated 9 lbs and more higher than others but still gets 8 lbs from all others because he hasn’t won for so long. Fitness shouldn’t be a problem, won a point recently before getting beaten at odds on last time. Going is the only possible problem as he is unproven on soft and all wins have come on better going. Too Many Diamonds looks bit overpriced at 66/1 as his record over this distance is very good - 3 wins from 7 at 20-21 furlongs, I was tempted by 13/1 (which works out at above evens for a place) on Betfair for 4 places, meaning he needs to beat just one horse.

Selection - Art Mauresque @ 5/6

Good luck.

Favourite won very easily, as he should have at that price. Cuban Sun best of the rest, with Be Thankful finishing 3rd as predicted.

LSP: -15.97 (win), -12.61 (place)

Bet 21

Cuban Sun (3:15 Catterick)

LSP: -10.47

Wins: 2/1, 8/15, 4/1

3:15 Catterick - with a rating of 122, Ashutor ought to win this but can’t really have a horse at odds of 4/11 that has finished 2nd four times from its 7 runs, so I am taking him on hoping one of the others can improve enough. CUBAN SUN won a handicap on flat (OR 67) for James Given, and showed promise on hurdling debut when finishing 2nd in a juvenile hurdle at Doncaster behind Fantastic Ms Fox, but was very disappointing when well beaten behind same horse and at same course upped to Listed class, she reportedly lost her shoe. She needs to bounce back and also needs to improve on her first run, but hopefully the weight allowances she gets will help, trainer Kelly Morgan has a good record in maiden hurdles - pu 66/1, unp 200/1, won 7/2, 3rd 9/4, won 15/8, 2nd 14/1, 2nd 10/1 (this horse), won 11/2 - so good run from all except the two big outsiders. Be Thankful ran well on hurdling debut for Martin Keighley when finishing 4th of 13 @ 100/1, she should improve and run well and has good chance of finishing in first 3, but there are only 6 runners.

Selection - Cuban Sun @ 13/2

Good luck.

yes, Doubler. His next two lost, we may have missed the boat as far as his recent good spell is concerned, but worth keeping an eye on them this year as he is a trainer on the up. Only 12 winners in 2017, 21 in 2018, 28 in 2019, already has 12 winners this year.