BEST of the BETS

I get your thinking Peregrine and youre right , its biggest asset is its age. But these French breds have been jumping fences since they were 3 abd Nicholls never thought it was a 3 miler or had the calss. But the Gold Cup is for the taking and id want 20/1 on it not 8/1...and theres a give away..a King George winner at 8/1 and the rival it beat easily half its price? Just got the feeling that everything went his way at Kempton including the 2.4 mile track purporting to be 3 miles. But i got it wrong last year (i was on Might Bite) and my last big win was Coneygree where i backed it all odds from 66/1 downwards. The last brilliant winner of the Gold Cup imao

Good luck tho, you are betting with sound logic and i have egg remover ready for my face!

Hi Brian, i feel for you but im afraid it dogged it! Even the commentator was pre-empting would would it find. Rider gave it a great ride round but why go to the front when its known to pull up? held onto it for another 75 yards it would have won hard held

I think "tonightimgoingtorideyoulikeadonkey" must have a chance? Trained by Rose Dobbin and ridden by Red Dozen

Hi Peregrine, I agree, while the Kempton performance was visually impressive there are so many holes in that form its bigger than a sieve! So many horses ran below par it was unbelievable and early fallers dont help the form either. Im not a massive stats fan but even thwse siggests it was one of the worse King Georges in history;

- wasnt even 1st string...Politilogue was and that would never winner a gold cup ever
- its only won 4 times in 12 chases, 6 times in 16 all races which would make it one of the worst gold cup winners inm history
- it beat a 10 year old Thistlecrack who would never win a gold cup while its got a hole in its wotsit!
- over 3m 1f at Haydock it was thrashed 8.5 lengths by Bristold De Mai
- before that (over 3 m plus ) it was thrashed 10.5 lengths at Aintree by Mite Bite (after a an incredibly hard race in the Gold Cup)...with Bristol De Mai 2nd
- it split Guitar Pete and Kings Odyessy at Chelt before that...hardly Gold Cup form
only raced over 3m + twice in its life
- it cannot beat Bristol de Mai on form...forget King George, Bristol always runs a shocker at Kempton, as do others
- 2.5 milers always run well over 3 miles at Kempton but rarely get home in Gold Cup
- Waiting patiently and Bristol both fell early in King George
.
Admittedly this isnt a vintage year and I can see why they will run with so many questions over the opposition so not dogging it on that front. But i cant see it getting round Chelt 3m 2f and staying up the hill. As for Might Bite, ive already put a cross through it, it cant win. Altior would beat it in a King George and everybody at seven barrows knows that. They got away with Might Bite and its been found out. Native River is a dour stayer and they will make all in this years Gold Cup and I hope to see Presenting Percy being smuggled into the race and go past with 50 yards to go go and not eyeball it like Nico did (would have won if held behind longer ).

Good piece tho peregrine and i respect your views. Its good to debate and easy to see why bookies win with so many different opinions about! cant wait til it all unwinds and Clan probably wins by 20 lengths!!!

Dexy, you may be right! Henderson fully supported the bha action but changing a rule in 5 mins? He feels the good trainers who plan vaccinations yearly are being penalised and the fly by nighters who only vaccinated once the problem was fist talked about in early January have been rewarded! Also it takes months and sometimes years to discuss, agree and change laws so how come they can in 10 mins! Especially Gsinst the backdrop of no evidence to support that boosters have any effect! His verts are experts and are sdament its a waste of time.

So the fat oaf Nicholls has his karma but henderson will still hammer him st Cheltenham!

while i think the BHA have handled the situation pretty well it did seem a bit odd that they change a rule "overnight" ref spaces between vaccination and boosters. No evidence that a booster works either as a vaccination is a slow release mechanism.I think this is overkill in the circumstances and upset a lot of lambourn trainers who feel agrieved as no sign of flu virus in the valley. i think hen Knight (trains Channons jumpers) put it succinctly that theyve been dealing with flu for years just like humans and this is an overreaction.Every yard has a sniffle and they either isolate that horse or close the yard if several are affected...not close down the whole of racing!

Common sense was needed and theBHA seem to have little. They went from handling it well to a shambles and almost rewarding the stables who have vaccinated late !

Henderson is now fuming as the BHA have effectively ruled out 3/4 of his weekend runners, DESPITE him having the best veterinary set up in the whole country!

Disappointing that Crisfords yard found to have 4 cases. Does anyone know whether there any cases reported during a "normal" year? So far 7 -10 cases out of a population of 5,000 odd? Genuinely wondering if there is a precedent?

as none are reported (so far) from Lambourn cant we hold Cheltenham for Lambourn and Irish runners only! lol! Id love to see Nicholls face! he'd explode in his own slime!

So one of the medians appear to be two northern tracks...Ayr and Newcastle. Interesting that one of Crisford runners at Newcastle has tested negative. Also 9and im not a vet, i just keep a very long glove for comedic reasons!) but i also see this strain is not the norm and originates from South and Central America. Seems odd to me as I cant remember many South American horses racing her. Im guessing theyve looked at feed etc? I suppose what i am saying is have they looked at the potential source rather than just the result of the infection ( I am sure they have). Also is this as aggressive as the different type that brought Australia to its knees? My understanding (limited i admit) is that its highly virulent and easy to pass on...odd that most of the runners at Newcastle and Ayr have tested negative

I was in lambourn yesterday and life seemed normal except noone on the schooling grounds but the hill was in use and noone seemed particularly worried. I await this afternoon's announcement. A rumour doing the rounds is to ban certain stables from racing but let it go ahead. This seems sensible and protocol already in place (same as when a yard has a virus and shuts up shop)

i hope your wrong Dazzler but i can see that the BHA may err on the side of caution and go for 3rd March. Sadly this would ruin the festival for many unless it can be delayed (which im sure the police for one wouldnt allow) which means Aintree would have to be delayed as well meaning no Irish horses as they will chose Punchestown instead. Worrying times.

All clear so far in lambourn. In fact henderson is quite happy for a few days more to dort out the minor bug thats held some of his up. He only really had angels breath running on sat from his stars so no hold up at all. In fact i think they are grinning at nicholls moaning!

Word is he is preparing runners for thurs onward so seems confident racing will return....fingers crossed!

No i wouldnt, But bookies would never give the 35,000,000 /1 real odds, theyd still only offer 20/1 and 1/10,000

Anyhoo I think we both want the same thing ie Cheltenham to be odd and i pray it will be

Useful post there wby, thsnk you

Herbie 5/1 is massive in a 2 runner race.

Lambourn trainers met this afternoon and support the BHA move as "sensible". Nothing yet untoward at Lambourn but then again I dont think there were any runners at Ayr. Before people panic too much, it is NOT the Ayr runners who have proved positive, but its sensble to test all the runners who did and it will take 3 days to find out.

Tipper, 5/1 is not short...that means its 1/7 to go ahead. i do not sense any panic and the Irish authorities acted very quickly to isolate the Ayr runners.For once this is a good example of the BHA working with trainers and owners and all seem happy to comply.

A nervous 3 day wait but certainly down here there is no belief that there is a problem. It can not be compared to the Foot N Mouth issue that cancelled Cheltenham. Moist trainers here are hopeful theyll be running next week. Fingers crossed

Well i was due to go to Sherwoods yard today with an owner but has been cancelled...dont panic, its just they are very busy testing every horse and cleaning boxes etc. No sense of panic and most dont seem over bothered...yet! apparently they are all waiting on McCains runners yesterday results.

Irresponsible the Guardian (and others) comparing with Australia a few years back...all british and Irish horses are vaccinated routinely...none were in Australia so it spread like wildfire. No chance of that here amongst racehorses.....pets may be different of course!

so lambourn is not panicking and all seems to be under control. Apparently the vets are awaiting the "strain" of flu detect that may have got around the vaccine, thatll be the key and its thought it may not be a serious threat, just a tweak in treatments (thats how viruses work...they get used to the vaccine and mutate to get round it). its been caught early and good decision by BHA even though little risk.

So the message seems upbeat. The Lambourn trainers are meeting later today to discuss so we may now more in time

Ill try Dazzler! im attending everyday this year so will need to pay for a holiday afterwards!

Not at all Joe. Ive gone through my books and ive made a profit at 18 of the last 20 Festivals. The best horses win and the handicaps are workable. What you MUST do is make decision between Irish and British form. For instance , Irelands novice hurdlers and juveniles are miles ahead of the British and Joseph o Brien could fill the first 6 places in the Triumph if he wanted to! Most punters dismiss Irish form and they are plain stupid! eg i think an Irish raider may win the Gold Cup as last years reps are proving disappointing. I think there is a definite lack of a 2 mile British Novice chaser at the moment.

also people go in blind on hcaps like the Pertemps and cry fiddle when a horse with little form wins. What they dont realise is theres about 50 qualifier races throughout the season where youve only got to be in the first 8 to qualify. So why would you want to win one and murder your hcap mark when you can cruise round in 8th and go to Chelt fresh and with a workable mark? Punters too often look at a horse with 12133121 whereas id look at a horse with potential (ie knows how to win) but current form is 75382567....then when you read its ran in 5 pertemps qualifiers throughout the season, you KNOW this has been its target for the last year.

So for me, not only is it the greatest race meeting in world, it is also more profitable! i win at Cheltenham most years by sticking to my guns but doing my homework. It must be the Irish in me! (both parents)!

So they didnt name the winner but just said the short priced horses were “very short”! No doibt they said Enable was very short for the Arc! And no doubt no comment after it pissed it! Not having a go at you Joe, youre just the messenger, but hardly a vintage piece of journalism from a bookie ! (The worst on the high street). rkle was also a bit short and Altior is very short! Beggars belief!

Will Hill? If Song for Someone beats Angels Hill on sat ill eat my Chinese Hat!

as for dead on its feet? I disagree , i back Sir Erec that day and we all agreed how well Bachelor had ran and was not finished yet so were "relieved" when it fell. The commentary also didnt suggest it was "out on its feet"....."Soon tracked leaders in 3rd until left 2nd at 3rd, led off home turn, joined approaching last where fell (op 16/1 tchd 14/1)"...if thats dead on its feet im a Mongolian (part Chinese). And remember Sir erec won a Grade 1 on Sunday and is hot fav for the Triumph (when Joseph O Brien probably has 6 of the best juveniles in training).

Also what about Lisaheen castles run? What were Will hills remarks about that before the race? did they think it was a short price too (11/8)? And i note you backed Johnstons horse? Surely with will hills insight about Bachelor and presumably Hendersons you should have been piling in on Praeceps instead of betting on something that had little chance of placing (in this company) nevermind winning. Im puzzled by your logic?

fair play to Praeceps (ex Prescotts which usually means its been beaten the granny out of by Luke Morris...only rated 75 on the flat), but we knew all about it and King thinks its a moderate horse that will end up handicapping. The market was weird (Lisaheen solid overnight yet drifted on course evs to 11/8 and Bachelor hammered in overnight to 13/8 from 3/1 yet drifted to 9/4 on course and Praeceps.....5/1 last night hammered and roughly the same this morning, gets hammered on the course to 5/2).The result also questioned by two no hopers 2nd and 3rd. I also note Hendersons other hotpot ran no race (and this is really top class form) so im not going to lose sleep over it and will look to see how Bachelor and lisaheen run next time. Ill get my cash back when Angels Breath hammers Song for Someone on Sat...if they do indeed meet but the fact Angels is listed at 7/2 suggests it wont.

these things happen and you take rough with the smooth but i hate being left puzzled by a race and that one has me puzzled. Im still stunned thwe winner won (and it won very well indeed) but cannot believe that form will stand up.

onwards and all that!

well i best start talking Mandarin! In the pub last night when we were going through the races i said "im a chinaman" if Kings wins. I backed in lto in a rubbish race (for the course) when his first string was useless and this plodded on against an ok horse of Tom Symonds. Backed off the boards ttoday it sprints clear and two hotpots unplaced! On this form Praeceps wins the Triumph by 25 lengths (through Bachelor and St Erec). Or am i just talking Mandarin!

I think youll find that race is ultra suspect as the 2nd and 3rd are useless and no way was that Bachelors or Hendersons form.Saying that, if you can believe what you just saw, you just saw the Triumph Hurdle winner!...my ass! ho hummm

well id bet both Nicola and Rachel against any male rider. Nicola is getting rave reviews in lambourn and she will be riding good chances at ascot. alan King plans to use her, as do Channon, Tregonning, Charlie Hills as well as her boss Jamie who always targets big handicaps at Royal Ascot. The word from Ireland is rachel is as a good a horseperson as youll ever see and there is talk of Willie Mullins ans Aidan using her in flat staying races this season. So ill have a look at the market, i bet its only 10/1 or so

Jamie Osborne will put Nicola Currie up and Henry de Bromhead will get Rachel Blackmore to ride in the stayers. ill have a bet Mugz, what odds you offering!