BEST of the BETS

Bet #84 - 7:55 Leopardstown - Saturn @ 6/5

10f maiden at the Curragh's Derby meeting looks the key piece of form, Saturn & Kadeen finished 2nd & 3rd in it, even if it is not easy to judge that form as only 3 horses from that race have run since then. But the winner has been given an OR of 84, and of the three horses to run from it two were big prices so are ignored but the 6th Ultra Fine finished a close 2nd (5/1) at Killarney earlier in the week, 3 spots ahead of a 78-rated horse who was same price. So there is enough evidence for me to feel that the Curragh form is likely to be superior to 80 OR Teorie who is 3rd fav. And indirect form lines with the two Ger Lyons runners (Velvet And Vine & Miss McHenry) also favours the Curragh form.

That Curragh race has a good record of providing next time winners, in last 20 years the horses who finished 2nd in that race, 8 of the 20 won next time out for LSP of +4.68, it improves to 7 from 14 with those that had been beaten less than 3 lengths. Horses who finished 3rd, 6 of the 20 won next time for +1.09 LSP.

Saturn was making his debut in that race and did well to be beaten just half a length. Although I don't expect huge 2nd time improvement from Jessica Harrington's, her record with flat horses on 2nd outing that had finished 2nd on debut is not too bad, 18 wins from 58 for +7.49 LSP.

Kadeen certainly looks a danger, he has been placed 3rd on both his runs, and it's possible that he needed the run last time. I would expect him to improve and finish closer today but there were nearly 3 lengths between him and Saturn, so I fancy Saturn to come out on top again even without any 2TO improvement.

There maybe some e/w value in Velvet And Vine now she has drifted to 10/1, I think she has place chances.