BEST of the BETS

Bet #103 - 6:15 Roscommon - Ribchestina @ 11/8

Despite there being 3 previous winners in this auction race, I don't think this is a strong renewal. In 5 previous runnings of this race, a winning performance in 90s was needed on 3 occasions with other two won by horses rated mid to high 80s. If I am correct in thinking that this is a weaker renewal then Ribchestina's 84 OR could be good enough plus there is a possibility of improvement.

Ribchestina & Nemonte both are dropping in class after unplaced runs in Group 3s last time, both finishing 4th, and as they are getting huge weight allowance from the colt My Mate Alfie, I think the winner is likely to come from these two. It wasn't an easy decision choosing between the two but it's the pedigree that has made me decide on Ribchestina.

She is related to an 8f winner and a hurdles winner, her dam Infatuation was unraced but related to several winners, none of whom won at sprint distances. Looking further back into family and it's hard to find any horses that won below 7f. That's what makes me think that it was very good for Ribchestina to win over 6 (soft to heavy) first time, a rare early 2yo winner for Sheila Lavery. She was disappointing next time when sent off short priced favourite for the Group 3, but as a possible excuse I think 6f on drier ground may have been too short. And as the pedigree suggests, I think she could improve for this step up in distance.

Nemonte already has form over 7, there is very little between them in betting, I have taken the risk based on possibility of improvement.

Trainer has had one runner in this race previously (Dark Conqueror in 2018), who was narrowly beaten @ 14/1 returning from a similar break.