BEST of the BETS

Good luck, AKD.

Thanks, Ribot.

Year couldn't have got off to a worse start. Flagrant Delitiep (9/2 SP) ran no sort of race and was the first one beaten.

Look on the bright side - things can only get better
hoping to make a start myself tomorrow m8 :up:

Thanks, Malcolm, best of luck with your bets.

Bet #2 - 3:50 Leicester - Embolden @ 13/2

Winning form is quite thin in this race. Embolden is one of only 3 in this 13-runner field that have ever won a race, and from these three Invincible Wish has not won for more than 6 years, that leaves Embolden and Tara Iti as the only two that have won within last year. Tara Iti was 36 lengths behind Embolden when they met at Plumpton last month so it seems unlikely that he can turn it around.

Admittedly, 2 of Embolden's 5 wins came in claimers/sellers for previous trainers, but he has at least shown that he is able to win which is more than can be said for some of the others in the race. He is 2 from 24 for current trainer, one win on flat (OR 63) and one over hurdles (OR 93) last April. In 11 runs since that win, he has mostly been consistent, placing 5 times. Handicap mark has dropped to 88 now.

It wasn't an easy decision to back though as trainer Clare Hobson doesn't get winners very often, she has had just 7 wins (2 of those with this horse) from 365 runs in 11 years of her training career. That record improves a bit to 5 from 131 in jumps handicaps, 1 win in each of last 5 years. But that is also why booking of a top jockey in Sam Twiston-Davies catches the eye, Sam has never ridden for Hobson before but trainer's record in jumps handicaps improves to 2 from 18 when they are ridden by a jockey with 25+ wins in past year.

Hard to feel very confident given trainer's record but it's a very ordinary race and at the price I feel it's worth chancing.

Robber's Bridge is also pretty consistent, but is still a maiden after 15 runs and has failed to win off similar marks in past, and he was 6 lengths behind the selection at Uttoxeter in October off 2 lbs better terms.

Good luck, AKD.

Good Luck AKD :up:

Thanks, Ribot, Malcolm.

Another poor run yesterday. Losing when horses run well enough is ok, but when they run as badly as my first two bets of the year have then it does create some doubts, hopefully things will change soon.

No bet today. I had considered Doyen Ta Win (1:35 Clonmel) today, 8/1 outsider in 4-runner field but as she pulled up last time it would have been a speculative choice. She is the only one with course form (3/14 but that was in a 0-100), improved to win 3 handicap hurdles last season before being upped in class. She has a chance back down in class today but is up against a Mullins hotpot. I might have taken the risk if I was in better form, but will just watch now.

Bet #3 - 2:12 Naas - Lightkeeper @ 13/2

Price has made me take a chance on this as it has almost doubled in price from the 7/2 this morning. The favourite Tullyhill was turned over at odds of 1/8 on his hurdling debut, he is very short again at 1/3 and I wanted to take him on with something. There are a few other alternatives as well as the selection, like other newcomers Union Station and Spellacys Cross, and the once raced The Great Unknown who could improve, but Lightkeeper looked the most likely one to me on pedigree.

Lightkeeper's dam Our Victoria was a 5-times winner, winning on her first hurdles start and went on to win three times over fences, rating close to 130. 2nd dam related to top class chaser Our Vic, so pedigree is pretty good.

Lightkeeper has run in 3 point to points, finishing first last time before being demoted. He needs to improve on that IF the favourite runs to his bumper form, but booking of Jack Kennedy first up is a positive.

Best of luck, AKD.

Thanks, Ribot.

Lightkeeper (SP 10/1) ran ok for 2nd but could never get close enough to long odds on favourite, who made all to win, to land a blow.

Bet #4 - 1:22 Fairyhouse - Ballyadam Destiny @ 10/1

Risking another one that is weak in market. Ballyadam Destiny ran a good race when beaten length and half in testing conditions at Limerick over Christmas, form of that race looks ok, the 5th horse won next time. Selection being raised 3 lbs for that 2nd place makes things a bit harder as he is now 6 lbs above his highest winning mark, but there are no obviously well handicapped horses in this race, Where's Frankie who is much shorter price is 13 lbs higher than his last win, despite this I still see him as a danger. And the novices Mint Boy & Gortmillish don't exactly look thrown in from marks of 126 & 123 respectively. It's possible that one of the younger ones will improve but at current prices I am happy to take a chance on Ballyadam.

Selection has won one race in each of last 3 seasons, wins coming on 5th, 12th & 6th start of season, today is only his 4th run this season so maybe a bit early but he has improved each season with the wins coming from ORs of 96, 104 & 109.

Trainer had the 3rd Young Dev (btn 3 lengths) in 2022 running of this race, YD had followed same route having previously finished 3rd in the Limerick race, but he had been beaten 16 lengths at Limerick so there was significant improvement between two races. I am hoping for similar today but even some improvement will help.

Tongue tie has been left off today, not sure what effect that will have, hopefully it will be a positive one, he has won without it in past.

Good Luck AKD :up:

Thanks, Malcolm.

Ballyadam Destiny (SP 9/1) finished only 6th.

Search for my first winner of year continues.

Bet #5 - 1:25 Punchestown - Joyeux Vivo @ 11/2

Backing this more on potential than anything else as his last couple of runs in maiden hurdles have been disappointing despite being well backed last time, and even the 3rd last run wasn't anything special. But he is still interesting, now making his handicap debut from mark of 109 in a race with mostly exposed runners in opposition, and given his connections it wouldn't be a big surprise if he is better than that mark.

I wouldn't say his handicap mark is a lenient one based on performance in 3 maiden hurdles, but before that he had run well on debut to finish 3rd in 4yo bumper at last year's festival here. The 2nd horse is rated 125 and 4th 112 now, so that run showed he has ability. JP McManus' previous best in that race was 6th place with a horse that went on to rate 130+.

Selection was favourite in the morning but has drifted a bit despite there being an important non runner, so might need to keep an eye on market and hope he doesn't drift much more.

There are a few in good recent form, including Ricky Bobby & McGrath From Clune but this looks more competitive than the Cork race they finished 2nd & 4th in. The Grey Falco can be considered based on his British form but he finished tailed off on stable debut last time. Derby Le Thaix is very well handicapped on his old form for Joseph O'Brien but that was a long time ago and although I think he could run well but the fact is this French bumper winner is 0 from 32 over hurdles.

Wait for a winner continues, Joyeux Vivo ran well but found one too good. The winner wasn't on my shortlist but the market got it right again as he was very strong in betting.

Hi everyone, I hope you are all well. My first bet in over 5 months (win record for the year stands at 0 from 5 so far), had a lot of personal stuff going on and been busy with new job and ended up losing interest in racing. Looking to get back into it now but probably won't be posting as much as before.

Bet #6 - 2:10 Nottingham - Mandega @ 5/1

Mandega ran well on his 2LR (his last run on the flat), when beaten about 3 lengths in finishing 3/8 @ 14/1 on what was his first run of season. Form of race has worked out well with the race winner Baltic winning again next time from 7 lbs higher mark, and runner up has placed on next two runs from 1 lb higher. Mandega has stayed on same mark of 68, even the horses who finished behind him in that race have done well with 1 win and 2 places from 5 runs between them, so form looks ok.

Selection was a 3 times winner in France at up to 10f, but is yet to win in this country in 10 starts including in 5 handicaps. But his handicap mark has dropped from mid 70s that he was running off last summer, and that first run of this season was an encouraging effort stepped up to mile and half for first time, and that run suggests this another two furlongs may also help, so I am hoping he will run well.

"Losing interest in racing" doesnt sound like you m8 - great to see
you back brilliant write up as usual and good luck with your pick :up:

mal :up:

Thanks Malcolm.

First bet back was no good, Mandega went off at 28/1 and finished only 7th of 8.

Always good to read your analysis etc AKD, thanks for posting

Thanks Enzo

Bet #7 - 2:15 Curragh - Commanche Falls @ 6/4

Age trends for this race are against my selection, as at 7 years Commanche Falls is the joint oldest in the race and it hasn't been won by oldest horse in race since Osterhase back in 2006. But like CF, Osterhase was also a previous winner of the race. CF was a comfortable winner of this race last year before going on to win at up to Group 3 level. He does have a 5 lbs penalty for that win but that may not be enough to prevent a repeat given his winning margin of length and quarter in last year's race.

He has had a similar preparation to last year having run again in Abernant and Duke of York, though he was below par in both those races compared to placed efforts last year, he showed he was back to his best when winning 2nd in a stronger Listed race at Haydock last time.

He is a regular winner with strike rate of above 30% and has gone winless for more than 4 races only twice in his career, he is on a losing run of 4 this time and hopefully can end that here. Trainer form is reasonable, 1 of only 3 in this race that have had a winner within last fortnight.

There maybe some e/w value in Tango Flare at double figure price as he was 2 1/2 4th in this race last year and has a 5 lbs pull with the winner this time, but I am not sure that will be enough for a win even with trying headgear for first time. Ano Syra has a chance on the ratings but she flopped last time and trainer hasn't had a winner for over a month. So I see the 3yo My Mate Alfie as the main danger, although he is only 1 from 10 he has been running consistently well at this kind of level since application of blinkers and could be one for the forecast spot.

The main danger wins, my selection nowhere.