My reasons for backing it. This is the first time he has dropped low enough in ratings to be able to run in class 5 handicap for nearly 3 years. Although he is 0 from 6 over c&d, he has been beaten 6 lengths and 5 lengths on last two of those from marks of 82 & 80 respectively, today he runs off 75 so should finish a lot closer based on that form. Last win (May 2018) also came after a break so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. One negative that sounds a note of caution is that they ran him in a claimer last time, a race he should have won as the weights greatly favoured him but he got beaten. But as it’s 16/1, I think it’s worth a small risk.
No matter how you look at the form and the stats, unless you back about 6 horses in a race there is always something that has that chance. No wonder the bookies come out on top in the majority of races.