BEST of the BETS

3:10 Sedgefield - Gold Mountain returns to action after an absence of 423 days with a change of stable, but he doesn’t look badly handicapped on some of his old form, for instance 2 years to this day he had finished 7 lengths 2nd to High Secret, who then went on to finish a good 4th in Grade 1 novice at Aintree. He is having his first run for Martin Keighley, who doesn’t have a bad record with horses returning after a long absence. He is 4 from 55 with runners returning after an absence of longer than a year, but if we split this into horses that were having their first run for him and those that had been with him already then the findings are interesting. 27 of the 55 were having their first run for him having been with another trainer before, and these 27 provided all 4 winners (+5 LSP) and another 7 places, whereas the 28 that had already been with him showed a poor return with 0 winners and only 5 places. Looking further at starting prices of those 27 shows that 10 of those were priced under 10/1 and the record of those 10 looks impressive - 132211P221. Those priced above 14/1 showed a poor return with only 2 placings. Gold Mountain is currently priced 9/1, which is borderline that’s why I have had only a small bet so far, but will bet more if he stays solid in betting, if he goes above 12/1 then I will leave it.

One question mark is how he will handle this track, as course form is a very important factor here, and a few of these including the favourite have run well here before. This is a long trip for Keighley, and he hasn’t had any runners here for over 5 years (he has sent 3 today), but his overall record at Sedgefield isn’t bad, 3 wins from 14, +2 LSP.

As mentioned above, betting will be important, so if anyone is following I would say wait till live show and if it drifts then leave it.

Good luck.