BEST of the BETS

Only one bet today, but it’s not a nap, only a small bet as I am not confident about it.

7:30 Kempton - I started looking at this searching for big prices as draw is a very big factor (strong bias towards low draw) over this trip here, and there are couple of big priced runners in low stalls namely Until Midnight & Fighting Temeraire. Until Midnight has run well over c&d from much higher in the handicap, but those runs were 2 years ago and since then he has had very little racing so clearly had problems and on last 3 runs, spread over nearly 2 years, he has failed to beat a single horse, so you need a big leap of faith to back him tonight but it’s not impossible. Fighting Temeraire is returning from 14 month absence so fitness could be an issue, but Dean Ivory has got winners after similar absences before and this one is potentially very well handicapped as just 18 months ago he was rated in 90s and now running off 72. Rob Hornby has only ridden 4 winners (from 51 rides) for Ivory but they have included big priced winners at 50/1, 33/1 & 25/1. This one is 33/1, and I am really tempted to back it but fitness is an issue and he had become a bit disappointing when last seen including disappointing on only previous run here. So it makes me go back to the form horses and it is not easy to split Master Diver and BLAME CULTURE, Master Diver had finished 3 1/2 lengths behind Blame Culture off level weights when they met at Wolverhampton in January, but it was MD’s debut whereas BC had already run 10 times so you have to expect improvement from Mark Prescott’s runner that’s why I think it is much closer between these two tonight. Master Diver is not your typical Prescott horse though, as they usually start handicaps in 60s & 70s and then improve but this one is already rated 80 after a maiden win so I don’t know how much improvement it can have. Blame Culture’s improvement has coincided with switch to Tapeta, but I don’t think return to polytrack will be a problem judging by pedigree as his family have a good record on this surface. And his run over c&d last June from 2 lbs higher mark when he finished 6th of 12 (beaten 3 lengths) also gives him a chance as he was drawn 13 that time, much better drawn in 6 tonight (I wouldn’t have wanted to be drawn any higher than this), and George Margarson is very good at placing his horses and I think he has found another winnable race.

Small win bet on Blame Culture @ 4/1, saver on Fighting Temeraire @ 33/1

Good luck.