BEST of the BETS

On a good run last few days, but today looks tricky for me as it took me a long time to decide between the final two on my shortlist and in the end maybe I have let the price influence my choice, let’s hope I made the right decision.

10 runners in this class 5 handicap for conditional jockeys, but there is enough form at the top there to make me think the winner will come from first few in betting. I will start with Lamh Ar Lamh, she ran well to finish a close 2nd over c&d, but while course form has to be respected here, fact is she is still a maiden after 24 races and she has also gone up 6 lbs for that last effort, another thing to note is that was in a race restricted to mares, she actually has a good record in mares only races with 3 places from 6 but found it tougher against geldings with just 1 place (in a very poor race) from 18, so although she might run well she is not for me with that record. Eddy is also running reasonably well, but he still remains 10 lbs higher than his last win which was nearly a year and half ago. Which left me with Gonnabegood and MRS MIGGINS as my final two, and they happen to be ridden by two of the better conditionals in Rex Dingle and Jonjo Jr. It’s very difficult to find fault with Gonnabegood, who has such a good record at this level (3 wins from 8 in class 5 handicaps, and a couple of 2nds), having first run here at Taunton but his half-brother Notarfbad had a good record here with 1 win and couple of 2nds from 4 visits. He would have been a selection if I was playing it safe, but gone for the riskier option of Mrs Miggins especially as Gonnabegood’s price has shortened a lot. Mrs Miggins was bought for £48,000 as a 3 year old, although her dam finished no better than 9th from her 6 runs she is from a good family, dam related to many good winners, latest being Minella Indo who won the Albert Bartlett (3 miles) at Cheltenham last week. So pedigree is pretty good and trainer has also said he thinks she will be better over 3 miles so I don’t think stamina is a problem. She is yet to win from 7 runs but has been consistent in higher class. Only problem is her two disappointing runs have both come at this track, 8th of 9 in heavy ground bumper and 4th of 7 in class 4 handicap, but she was very weak in betting that day (drifting from 13/2 to 14/1), it was a much better race too with top weight rated 116, today she is the top rated on 102 (4 lbs lower than that run here) so there are reasons to expect a better showing today.

Another option for exchange players maybe back to lay, as she has traded lower in running on all 7 of her starts so far, on that Taunton run she hit a low of 5.8 having gone off at Betfair SP of 23. In contrast, Gonnabegood is usually worth backing in running, on 3 of his 4 wins he has traded at prices of 1000 (13/2 SP), 70 (5/2 SP) & 50 (7/2 SP) in running.

Small win bet on Mrs Miggins @ 4/1, and I might lay and play two horses in running if prices allow it

Good luck.