SPIRIT KINGDOM has just 1 win from 12 runs so there is always a risk that she could be vulnerable to one of the lesser exposed ones, but she has been running well so I have taken a chance on her. She has had 3 runs this year, on first of these she had no chance in class 4, but ran well enough to finish 3rd of 4 behind two horses who both won next time. On 2nd run, she was again a big price at 25/1 and finished 3rd behind the progressive Alkaamel. Last time having made the running, she was beaten 3 necks in a bunch finish, admittedly last race was a poor one but so is this and she has been dropped another 1 lb in handicap, and as she is again likely to lead this track may give her a better chance of holding on than Newcastle. As she is a front runner, another option with her is back to lay in running as she has traded lower than BfSP on all her runs - last 3 runs; BfSP 32 - IR low 5, BfSP 30 - IR low 9, BfSP 8.6 - IR low 2. And that is the option I am taking, instead of backing each way I have backed her for win and will lay part of my stake at price of between 3 and 4 in running. Image Of The Moon seemed to improve on handicap debut last time and I rate her as the main danger.
I backed this last night thinking it will shorten in morning, but it has kept going other way. It’s out to 18/1 now, such a huge drift is not a good sign, I don’t understand it but I see Mark Johnston’s other two runners today are also big drifters.
don’t fret mate. I selected Mint Gold at Hexham yesterday, backed it Monday night at 6/1. Unfortunately Lucinda Russell’s other runner won the race but Mint Gold finished 3rd at 20/1. Drifters in the market don’t always drift out of the race pal. Good luck