BEST of the BETS

This looks a very tricky race to me, you have a lot of horses that have a good record here and there are also a couple of potential improvers making their handicap debuts. I couldn’t make my mind up for a confident bet here so I have had only a small bet, but posting my thoughts about few possibles. I had 5 on my not so short shortlist, so it does look wide open. The two with potential for improvement, namely Kingdom Brunel and Blindingly, head the market, both have had 3 runs and making their handicap debuts from what look reasonable handicap marks and both have run over c&d twice and been placed each time. Kingdom Brunel is brother to stable star Amazing Maria, who gave O’Meara one of his 2 Group 1 wins, he is also related to Constantino who is a good handicapper rated in mid 90s and has a good record here at Newcastle, so if pedigree is any guide then Kingdom Brunel should turn out to be much better than his 73 rating in time, whether he is value at a short price is a different matter, I thought 7/4 this morning was poor value but he has been on drift through the day. Other handicap debutant Blindingly also has good pedigree, he is half brother to Broughton, 90s rated handicapper on flat for Mark Johnston and Listed winner over hurdles. Ben Haslam’s do tend to improve on handicap debut and he also has the cheekpieces for first time. But if you fancy Blindingly, then you also have to give a chance to Tum Tum, who was only half a length behind Blindingly over c&d and is 3 lbs better off today, admittedly that was on Blindingly’s debut so you have to factor in the improvement he has made. Other two to make my shortlist were Newmarket Warrior and Elixsoft, both with very good records here. NW is 7 lbs better off with Elixsoft, having finished 3 lengths ahead of her over 7 furlongs here, but again that was Elixsoft’s first run after a long break and she has improved since then, and she is yet to finish out of first two in 5 runs over this c&d (albeit all 5 of those were in lower class) so I can’t rule her out. My preference though is for Newmarket Warrior, he did well to finish 2nd in that 7 furlongs race as it included 4 c&d winners. His earlier race over a mile here has also worked out well with 4 of his 6 opponents from that race winning since then. He is now 1 lb lower than his last win, one doubt is the 3 month break as Iain Jardine rarely gets winners after similar breaks on flat, but this horse has run well after a similar break before finishing 2nd over c&d. Two Jim Goldie runners, Testa Rossa and Insurplus are also multiple times winners here but they don’t have the same consistency as NW or Elixsoft so didn’t make my shortlist. Newmarket Warrior has run at Newcastle 23 times and finished out of first 5 only twice, so Bet365’s 8/1 each way 5 places doesn’t look bad, but I have had small each way interest on him at 11/1 (3 places).

Long post, but I needed it to explain why it looks a very tricky race.

Good luck.