Last year’s winner Magic Circle is out as expected but Ian Williams still looks to have a strong hand, and I have backed one of his - SPEEDO BOY (18/1) has been very consistent both on flat and over jumps. He is on same mark as when 5th in Mallard handicap and 6th in Cesarewitch, he was beaten 7 lengths in latter but is now 9 lbs better off with the winner Low Sun, which should see him get closer. James Doyle, who was on board for his last flat win, is back on. Trainer has a good record at this meeting and although he hasn’t had a winner here this week, all 4 of his runners have run fairly well. Selection is only 5 year old which could be a bit of negative as 5 yo’s don’t have a good record in this (only 3 wins from 87 runners in last 20 years), 6 yo’s have the best record. Drawn is stall 6, normally that is a good thing as 8 of the last winners of this were drawn in stalls 1-6, but on only two occasions when going had soft in it the high drawn horses won both times. If the high draws are favoured then Low Sun and Who Dares Wins and also Williams’ other runner Shabeeb should run well and outsider Busy Street would also have place chances, but selection’s draw is not too bad either way so hopefully he can still run well.
Have to be careful because of the going, and my two selections here on Wednesday ran really poorly, so only a small each way bet.
I was just about to post a thread on the race myself AKD. So may as well post my thoughts in here if that's ok with you?
I have however gone for one of the other WIliams runners!! :groan:
CHESTER CUP (3:35)
Here are my thoughts…..(long and laborious as always!)
Wide open contest as always. Last year’s winner, Magic Circle, is unsurprisingly pulled out having run in the Ormonde Stakes yesterday.
I’m looking away from the very top of the market, as this race is always so open. 6 of the last 7 winners have been double-figure odds.
My initial fancy for the race was CLIFFS OF DOONEEN at 14/1 for Ralph Beckett & Harry Bentley. This is a lightly raced ex-Ballymore horse, who has been gelded and had one run since switching stables. The horse’s debut run last year saw him beat True Self, who won a listed contest in Ireland last week.
First UK run was at Kempton 3 weeks ago, on the allweather, and may have been a loosener. In the past couple of weeks, Beckett’s runners have really hit form including 2 winners and a runner up from 4 runners here this week so far.
This is Beckett’s only runner on the card today. It is also Harry Bentley’s only ride here before heading off to Wolves. His last 3 rides have all WON.
This one could have a lot of unfulfilled potential. Worries are that the ground is an unknown, and the fact that only two 4 year olds have won this in the past 10 years.
There are a couple that ran last year, who could be nicely handicapped if regaining some form.
The runner up in 2018, Fun Mac, runs off 8lbs lower today and carrying just 8lbs7 on the likely soft ground could be an advantage. Certainly wouldn’t discount at current odds of 12/1.
TIME TO STUDY is VERY intriguing, and could be well worth an e/w bet at 25/1 (currently at B365). Was 11/2 favourite for this last year running off a mark of 105, finishing in 5th place.
RP Comments read …”In touch, lost place 6f out, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, never able to challenge (tchd 6/1)”
Returns today, 8lbs lower running off 97, having 2nd run of the year and only the 2nd run for new stable Ian Williams.
Interesting also that Williams employs the services of Richard Kingscote to ride the horse today. Kingscote is obviously one of the leading jockeys at the track, and has an excellent record when riding for Williams…..19/93 (20%) +£37.73.
Ground should certainly not be a worry either as horse’s form on Soft or Heavy going reads – 3-2-3-1-2.
The more I look into this one the more I wonder whether Williams has had this race in mind, could be a potential plot here.
I can’t make up my mind so am splitting my stakes on TIME TO STUDY @ 25/1 & CLIFFS OF DOONEEN @ 14/1.
I may also go in again on Time to Study, if market support materialises.
I used to like dandy Nicholls here and always backed his horse if it had run the day before
Clive Britain was always an ew in the big races almost guarantee that he'd have 66/1 third
Haven't seen any new trainers doing this sadly for me but if anything has noticed this please tell