BEST of the BETS

4:30 Epsom

This looks a poor renewal, but a few lightly raced fillies in there, hopefully they will improve. I have had a small each way on MANUELA DE VEGA (14/1, 4 places), finished 2nd in Cheshire Oaks. First 7 in that race were all last time out winners so that looks quite a strong trial. She is 3 lbs better off with the winner Mehdaayih, that alone won’t be enough to turn the placings around as she was beaten 4 and half lengths, but at the prices I think she is worth the risk. Historically, although trial winners have won more often, horses who finish 2nd have proved to be better value. Last 20 runnings, horses who won one of the trials have won this 12 times from 97 runners for LSP of -18, those who finished 2nd in the trials won this 5 times from 47 runners for LSP of +21. Selection’s sister Isabel De Urbina (33/1) was only 6th (well beaten) in this two years ago, so from pedigree perspective that is a bit of negative, but this filly is a bit better and this year’s race is also weaker so I think she can run well. Another possible negative is that stall 1 doesn’t have a good record in either this or the Derby, but Beckett knows what it takes to win this race and I feel she has a good chance of finishing in first 3 or 4, I will be happy with that.

Tauteke also looks a bit overpriced at 66/1, though she does need to improve quite a bit it’s not impossible.

Good luck.