BEST of the BETS

Nice post, good Luck :up:

Nice thread, I am sure it will produce many winners, good luck with it.

Excellent reasoning. Cheers.

Nice post GL. Trainer won race 2 years ago too.

Good write up mate, good approach to finding the winner, noticed a couple of errors, handicap mark is 48 not 46 and Funkadelic has ran twice at the course but under different jockeys one of which is back up today, the errors don’t significantly impact the underlying reasoning though, think I’ll follow, gl

Stand corrected.

Like your reasoning and breakdown. Feel that Little Miss Lola could be thereabouts at 14/1

4th beaten hd nk 1and 3/4L, normally grabbing the near side rail would be a help but not today.

Andrew Mullen was stood down following an incident in an earlier race.

Claimer took the ride and I think Mullen would have been better to suited to the horse, knows the horse.

Did not fancy him today but felt he could have been placed. Loss of Mullen put a line through it for me.

Really bad racing lately but having a small interest in 6.30 the tooth fairy. 11/2. Pt e/w

P/l -4pts

Excellent start, not.
Two ew bets and two 4th places.

-6pts

5.50 cent flying 1pt e/w 7/1

Cent flying has a bad enough draw here but he is a hold up horse and usually these races fall aprt near the line so let hope CENT FLYING is near enough to take advantage.

Lads
I have started a blog for some friends of mine so I thought I might as well bang some of the stuff up here if anyone wants to read.

Just finished having a look at Newcastle races for Monday and two that interest me are two favs. However if you are quick you can still get
1.00 STONE MASON 11/4 hills and 5.05 ALIGNAK 100/30 Boylesports

1.00 STONEMASON ran in a novice stakes first time out at Weatherby finishing 3rd to two horse who went on to be rated 86 and 79.
Then ran in two maidens and didn't show an awful lot to be honest.
He was then given a rest of two months and entered for a class 5 handicap at Newbury, he finished 7th btn 9L when his sp of 8/1 suggested his stable thought he might have been a little closer.
Then gelded in January 2020, don't know what sort of problems the horse had or caused but he was sold to the APPLEBY yard only four days ago according to the Racingpost.
I want to have a closer look at the Newbury handicap, he finished 7th, the first six horses in the race where rated
76....71....76....76....74....72
Stonemason was rated 68, he was dropped 5LB and gets into Newcasles 0-65 class 6 handicap of 63.
There are seven 4yr olds in the field of 12 runners so could be some improvement from one of the four however I have had 2pts win on STONEMASON 11/4.

Onto the 5.05 Alignak 100/30 the longest race of the day whatever about fitness you will have to have some stamina to get this 1m4f98yds trip, shouldn't be a problem for ALIGNAK as he has a dosage of 0.63.

Alignak's first visit to a race course was in a novice stakes at NEWMARKET where he finished 8 of 9 runners when 16/1 so was clearly out just for the experience.
Next race was another novice stakes where he again started a big price 14/1 only to be beaten 3/4L by HUMANITARIAN 1/3f.

The racing post analysis for the race was as follows

"The first three finished clear in this novice event. The time was 0.68sec quicker than the preceding Class 3 fillies' handicap.

HUMANITARIAN, off since a win at Lingfield six months ago, landed the odds under his penalty. He travelled comfortably in front and although his rider needed to be quite firm with him as the second stuck on, he was always going to win. A King Edward VII Stakes entry, he can improve plenty on the bare form.

Alignak
showed considerably more than on his debut in the autumn, when he'd finished a place behind today's fifth. He stayed on well to make the winner work a bit for his victory."

HUMANITARIANS next race was in the Epsom Derby where he finished 7 of 13 btn 7L behind ANTHONY VAN DYKE.

Next stop Ffos Las for a 1m4f race which he started 4/7fav but could only manage 3rd of 7 btn 11L. However the winner that day was a Alan King trained horse called TRUESHAN whose form over 1m4f on the flat reads 11121 and is currently rated 103.
Plus the time of the race was excellent, Off time: 3:26:26 Winning time: 2m 31.18s (fast by 2.82s).

Next stop Kempton 1m3f where he won easily, he did however have very little to beat, he was rated 85 with 77, 79 rated horses finishing 2nd and 3rd.

Again some analysis from racingpost below

" The first three pulled well clear and the winner bounced back to form with a comfortable success.

ALIGNAK
was an odds-on failure at Ffos Las last time but showed that run to be all wrong, bouncing back to the sort of form which saw him finish second to Humanitarian at Leicester on his reappearance. Travelling comfortably throughout, he bounded clear in the straight. He's related to some smart performers and has the potential to progress in handicap company. "

Conclusion: I do think ALIGNAK has been racing against classier horses than what he meets at Newcastle also being related to SEA THE STARS, I think I read some stats about SEA THE STARS offspring doing really well at Newcastle over 1m2f, I think it was 20/49 showing a profit of €49 so the twenty winners must have been fav or near fav which bodes well for ALIGNAK on Monday
Plus being trained by M.STOUT whose 4yr olds sometimes improve considerably.

2pt win 100/30

Alignak would seem to be the obvious choice to win the race B2W, I read once that the top trainers only
keep 4yo handicappers as a gauge for their younger horses, but they still have to earn their keep so
they regularly win.
As for me i keep getting drawn to Star of the East, only run 3 times over the all weather, once at newc.
failed miserably at all tracks.
The common factor is he won better class races over the turf on its second run both times, a possible training schedule adopted by m johnston, at 16/1 will have a place only bet tomorrow. then follow on its next 2 runs.

Alignak won that tidily, good analysis. Cheers :up:

5.05 Kensington Art 9/1 1pt e/w most bookmakers paying 4 places 1/5 odds

Again another race 1m3f219y where you will need to have stamina and just like Alignak (Dosage index 63) winner earlier on Kensington Art is blessed with an even better dosage of 0.57

His lifetime form reads 8408/345462211464
Now discount his first four races which were way too short, now reads 345462211464
Now discount ground soft to heavy, now reads 3452211
Now discount Turf form, now reads 1

Another plus is the Jockey who rode him to his all weather win is back on tomorrow claiming 3LB and surely its a great e/w bet 4 places.

First time on the allweather could be the time to catch LONDON EYE and jockey R.Moore according to his blog says he will run very well however this gelding has started 7/1 or less in all his races , fav for two of them and at 11/4 we can afford to leave him alone.

Well done with Alignak.

some stable tours reading here

https://bet-master.freeforums.net/thread/6/2020-stable-tours-flat

19 hours ago
Quote
Edit
like
Post Options
Post by Admin on 19 hours ago
4.15 Elizabethofaragon 2pts e/w 10/1 powers 4 places

3.35 Informateur 1pt 12/1 3 places

I think 12s is just too big for this fella tomorrow, from the Sue Smith yard and having his first run in a beginners chase.

Lets concentrate on the horse first, Informateur seems a consistant horse, two bumper runs resulting in a 2nd place and 13 races over hurdles resulting in three wins, three 2nd places, two 3rd places. Two of the hurdle wins were at tomorrows track. So the horse is consistant.

Now the jockey Danny Cook, he has ridden Informateur fourteen times, resulting in three wins, four 2nd places and two 3rd places.

Lastly the trainer, Sedgefield is her second most succesful course (winner wise) with 100 winners from 692 winners, add another 69 placed horses.
Thats 169 placed horses from 692 which is a tidy 24.4% place strike rate at the yard.

The only downside is and its one from stopping me having 2pts e/w is the trainers form 0/16 over the last 14 days however she did have two 2nds and a 3rd, all three ridden by tomorrows jockey Danny Cook.

After all that, it is definitely worth 1pt e/w at the big price of 12/1

Jockey change, DANNY COOK not turned up at course for ride.