BEST of the BETS

I am badly out of form at the moment so treat this with caution, but here are my thoughts on all the runners in this race.

Indian Temple - step up to 3 miles seemed to eke out improvement from him as he battled hard for a win at Perth last month, that win puts him on a career high mark though and his last 3 wins have all come at that fixture at Perth so it seems clear that last race was the target, not won away from that venue in nearly 3 years.

The Paparrazi Kid - not seen since beaten 80 lengths at Punchestown festival last year. Drops in class, but at 12 years of age he is clearly past his best and impossible to fancy after such a long break for his new trainer who is yet to have even a placed horse from 18 runners.

Value At Risk - has had a wind operation since his last run 7 weeks ago, closely matched with Indian Temple on that run as he is 6 lbs better off for finishing 5 lengths behind. 1 lb below his last win which was here over 2 and half miles in January. Has to be respected because trainer has a very good record here, but in my opinion price is short enough considering he is yet to win over this far.

Wolfcatcher - still unexposed over fences with just 7 runs, won two of those and is in reasonably good form, maybe a little unlucky that he came up against a well handicapped horse in Western Miller last twice. Trainer has a pretty good record here. Shortlisted.

Majestic Moll - only mare in the race, she has had an interesting start to her chasing career, won 2 novices from 5 chase starts, but pulled up on other 3 occasions, two of the 3 were in Grade 2 and Listed races though. Tongue tie goes on for first time, and trainer does very well with few runners she sends here, 9 wins from 50 runners (+14 LSP). Needs to bounce back to form but too early to write her off.

Lord Bryan - Peter Bowen won this race 3 years in a row from 2010-12 (prices 9/4, 8/1 & 15/8), his only runner since then finished 4th of 6 (9/4f) in 2017. 3 lbs higher (has won off this mark too) than when winning a 4 runner handicap from the front at Newton Abbot in April. This track suits front runners so that’s a positive but there is another front runner here in Indian Temple. Significant move in betting from 7/1 into 4/1 which is interesting, but on form of last run he looks held by Wolfcatcher.

My decision is between WOLFCATCHER and Majestic Moll, decided on former due to better recent form. Value At Risk and Lord Bryan also have chances.

Small bet on Wolfcatcher @ 4/1

Good luck.