BEST of the BETS

A 3rd inspection planned at 11 AM, so not sure the meeting will go ahead but I have backed one in the bumper.

4:30 Exeter - some interesting newcomers, but I think experience will be handy especially in these conditions. BOULTING FOR GLORY cost a €100,000 and finished 4th (5/1, beaten 18 lengths) on debut on heavy going at Wincanton last month. It wasn’t a bad run as the front two had the benefit of experience, and with the usual 2nd time improvement you would expect this one to go close. Neil King does well in these races and his runners show improvement 2nd time out. Mountain Leopard has also shown good form in two bumpers but I feel carrying a penalty in a competitive field like this makes things difficult. Another possible at a bigger price is Lamanver Storm, who was very disappointing when sent off favourite on debut but did better next time. He needs to improve again but it’s not impossible, he comes from a good family, Tom Lacey also trained two of his half-sisters Lamanver Alchemy (won on 3rd start) and Lamanver Odyssey (won on 2nd start) and won bumpers with them.

Selection - Boulting For Glory @ 10/3

Good luck.

Poor run, always towards the back.

LSP: -2.71 (win), -8.36 (place)

5:30 Kempton - backing a newcomer at odds on is probably not a good thing in long run, but I feel this is a weak race and Godolphin newcomer STORMY MOUNTAIN may not need to be anything special to win this. Charlie Appleby is 10 from 25 (+8 LSP) with January debuts including 3 from 5 this year. Below is the RPR figure and placing for all his debutants in January from this year and last year.

One Vision (85) won
Kinver Edge (78) 4th
American Graffiti (80) 2nd
Dawn Crusade (76) 2nd
Al Maysan (83) won
Royal Castle (71) 4th
Bright Melody (82) won
Distant Goddess (66) 3rd
Endless Echoes (72) won

Only 1 below 70 rating in there. The 2nd favourite Lottie Marie recorded a RPR of 67 over c&d last time, so I feel if Stormy Mountain runs to average of her stable newcomers then the rest have to improve significantly. Track shouldn’t be a problem, selection’s sire Dark Angel is 7 from 52 (+13 LSP) with newcomers here.

Of course there are no certainties, especially first time, and if selection turns out to be below average then it’s an open race with likes of No Nay Bella also capable of improving.

It’s a restrictive price, but maybe worth putting it in a double with something.

Selection - Stormy Mountain @ 8/11

Good luck.

Very disappointed with yesterday’s result, it had every chance but the horse or jockey didn’t seem to want to go past the winner, but I only have myself to blame for backing an odds on shot on debut.

LSP: -3.71 (win), -8.11 (place)

Moving on,

2:35 Fakenham - COUGARS GOLD ran well for me last time so I am sticking with him even though it is a competitive race. He has dropped another 1 lb since his last run and is now just 2 lbs higher than his last win (March 2019). Stays well, and has won at up to 3 miles so this step back up in trip should suit. Running at Fakenham for first time, but trainer has a good record here. Cap Du Nord should be thereabouts as he has run well on both previous visits here, I would have backed him had a been an each way price but 2/1 is a bit too short in my opinion.

Selection - Cougars Gold @ 18/1 (Ladbrokes, other bookies are quite a bit shorter)

Good luck.

Ran ok (went as short as 5.5 in running), but finished out of places in 4th. Not having much luck as once again the horse 2nd on my shortlist wins, when I leave them because the price looks short they win and when I back them then the ones I thought had a chance at bigger price win lol.

LSP: -4.71 (win), -9.11 (place)

1:50 Doncaster

My shortlist - Movie Legend, Wishfull Dreaming

Two previous winners of this in Cracking Find and Duke Of Navan both look potentially well handicapped but on recent form both have questions to answer. MOVIE LEGEND was only 6th in this race two years ago but that was on soft going, he has since won over c&d last March on better going and is now down to same winning mark. CF was a close 3rd behind him that day and is 8 lbs better off and is entitled to turn it around on that evidence, but his tailed off efforts on last two runs make him a risky favourite. Selection has been in better form with 4th of 13 and 3rd of 6 in two runs this season. He is pretty consistent and has won or placed on 60% (15 from 25) of his runs at a single figure price. Return of Leighton Aspell, who is 6 from 19 (+8 LSP) at Doncaster over last two years, is also a positive. His record on this horse is 23P213122110 (last unplaced effort was a big price). Other horse on my shortlist Wishfull Dreaming is also very consistent, but is still 5 lbs higher than his last win though he has continued to run well off this mark. At bigger prices, Ashoka would have a squeak if returning to form but his 3 runs so far this season have been very poor.

Selection - Movie Legend @ 13/2

Good luck.

Just out of places again, another 4th.

LSP: -5.71 (win), -10.11 (place)

1:15 Cheltenham - ignoring the trends in backing IMPERIAL AURA, as favourites have a poor record in this race. No favourite has won this since Ping Pong Sivola in 2009, and in last 10 years only one favourite has managed to place (last year). But I can’t ignore selection’s last run in a novice here over 3 mile 2 furlongs. He was beaten 8 lengths by 149-rated Pym and was 10 lengths clear of 3rd placed Aye Aye Charlie (rated 134 and receiving 5 lbs from front two), so on that evidence it is not hard to see that selection’s mark of 136 looks lenient, we’ll see if that is the case. Top weight Jarvey’s Plate was a bit disappointing when last of 4 finishers in Feltham, but he has won around here over hurdles and could run better than his price of 33/1 if jumping better. And maybe worth keeping an eye on betting for McManus horse Sully D’Oc Aa, can’t be fancied on recent form but has dropped to a handy mark and would be interesting if money comes for it (only a small move so far) as Honeyball is in great form at the moment.

Selection - Imperial Aura @ 11/4

Good luck.

Ran well despite the big drift out to 5/1, went 1.54 in running but found one too good, well clear of the rest so not a bad run but badly need a winner soon for this thread.

LSP: -6.71 (win), -8.54 (place)

1:50 Fontwell - risky one, but FENLONS COURT looks interesting on return to hurdles after 5 disappointing runs over fences. Only 1 win over hurdles too from 13 starts so strike rate not great but that win came over this c&d (October 2018) from 11 lbs higher mark than today. 33 lbs (yes 33) better off with Hier Encore, who was 2nd behind him that day. So yes it’s risky because of low strike rate and lack of recent form, but is very well handicapped and could be interesting that there is money for it today. Fu Fu is a 9 race maiden but has some form here that gives her a chance and she is on a low enough mark so could be a danger.

Selection - Fenlons Court @ 7/2

Good luck.

How unlucky does one have to get. You spend hours working out a race and get it down to 2 runners, and for the umpteenth time the one you leave out of the two wins. Fu Fu comes from a long way back to win it at the finish @ 12/1, didn’t even have a saver forecast today. It’s enough to make you want to give up.

I had a bad feeling after I left out the 16/1 winner on 1st day of the year, hope it doesn’t go like this whole year.

LSP: -7.71 (win), -7.94 (place)

Monty python comes to mind akd always look on the bright side of life lol

Lol Peregrine, I have calmed down a bit now, tomorrow’s another day eh.

What made it worse was my selection went 1.1 in running and seemingly had the race at his mercy, winner was 420 in running and looked most unlikely but I had the feeling then that if anything catches mine that will be the one, it was agony watching the run in.

I understand completely akd it's frustrating maybe if you fancy 2 do them both split your stake just a thought

Yes, been thinking about that, might give it a try. Another thing is price movements are not easy to predict, at the time I placed my bet today the two horses were 7/2 & 7/1, not a huge difference I thought so went with the one I fancied more. They ended up at SPs of 9/4 & 12/1, if I had known that would have opted for the bigger price.

Unlucky AKD and GL mate

Thanks KJ.

3:45 Kelso - this would normally be a confident bet for me but the way my luck is at the moment I half expect for something to go wrong, so I am being careful. It’s really hard to find a fault with BLACK PIRATE’s form, only 1 defeat in bumpers that came when giving weight to a horse now rated 137 over hurdles. Returned from a 600+ day absence to win on hurdling debut at Wetherby last month. Brian Hughes has had a brilliant past week, LSP of +33 from just 25 rides over last 7 days, that included 2 winners (from 2 rides) for James Ewart, and Hughes has also won two previous runnings of this race. Main rival in betting Ebony Jewel is rated 122 after a win on 3rd try over hurdles last time, he is respected but I just feel if my selection runs to his best then he can rate higher than that. Hurdling debutant Wee Goldie was disappointing last time but has good form in two earlier bumpers including a close 2nd on debut here (winner of that race rated 115 now), I expect him to improve now hurdling and has good place claims getting weight from top two. I think these 3 will fill first 3 places. A couple of others that I think will improve from their hurdling debut efforts are Artic Mann & Six One Nine, both are 66/1 and as this is a really good race it will be hard for them to make first 3 but could finish in first half dozen and could be of interest in extra places market depending on the price.

Selection - Black Pirate @ 6/4, fun forecast with Wee Goldie

Good luck.

Nice to have a close finish go my way for a change lol. Black Pirate won but only just, Wee Goldie was the only disappointment of race for me finishing only 8th. The two big outsiders Artic Mann (150/1) and Six One Nine (33/1) finished in first 6 as predicted, didn’t have a bet on them unfortunately but 40/1 and 33/1 was available for 6 places on them this morning.

LSP: -6.39 (win), -7.72 (place)

Yeaaaaa :clap: :clap:

Thanks, Fuzzybear.

3:40 Newcastle - a few of these come here in good form, but SHIMBA HILLS looks to have more positives than anything else. He took advantage of a low mark when winning well a similar race under this jockey at Lingfield last time. That win came after a gap of 3 years that had seen him drop 34 lbs in the handicap. But to be fair he had very little racing in two previous seasons, only 2 runs in 2017/18, and 3 in 2018/19, has run more regularly this season and that has seen him get into more of a rhythm, had placed on two of the 3 runs prior to the win last time. Has been raised 7 lbs for that win but still remains 22 lbs below his highest winning mark so looks well handicapped. Pretty consistent with a 41% career place strike rate which is good as he has done a lot of his racing in one class above this. I think track will suit, and could be interesting that he has been sent such a long way. Lawney Hill has had only 1 previous runner at Newcastle, that was over 8 years ago. It was unplaced but was in a Listed race, I think it’s more interesting when a small stable sends one a long way for a small race like this.

One unknown in this race is LEVEROCK LASS, who could be a potential danger, only had 5 runs, well beaten on 4 of those runs but she won the other one (novice hurdle). Admittedly that race was gifted to her a bit with the long odds on favourite failing to complete, but even so she won easily from a horse rated 96 (who has also won from that mark since), and as her own mark has now dropped to 96 it will be dangerous to ignore her chance. She is priced 12/1 at the moment, which I think is a bit short given her inconsistent profile but if she drifts to close to 20/1 tomorrow then I won’t be able to resist a little saver on her. Seapoint went close here last time, although up 2 lbs she has place claims again but price too short for win purposes.

Selection - Shimba Hills @ 5/1, possible saver on Leverock Lass

Good luck.