BEST of the BETS

Bit of a quirky stat.

In 4:25 at Ripon, Karl Burke has the favourite Miss Milby, she was 2nd on both her starts so far. Burke has had 9 runners with a similar profile before, i.e., 2 year olds that had finished 2nd on their first two runs. What happened on 3rd start? None of the 9 won (prices on 3rd run were 7/4, evens, 4/1, 11/4, 4/6, 7/2, 3/1, 4/5, 5/2), but all 9 were placed, 7 finishing 2nd and 2 finishing 3rd. This might win, but at odds of 5/6 I would rather back something to beat it. Others with experience look unlikely, and even most of the newcomers are from stables not known for debut winners.

Record of stables on 2yo debuts (wins-places-runs)

Philip McBride - 4-12-107, 2 of the wins were in sellers (from 4 runners)
John Quinn - 8-19-147 in last 5 seasons, only 2 of those winners priced over 10/1 (from 108)
Tim Easterby - 8-16-254 last 5 seasons, all 8 of those (from 132) ridden by David Allan, jockey is at Ripon today but not riding this one.
Luke McJannet - 0-0-7
Adrian Keatley - first 2yo since moving to England. 1-4-44 in Ireland
George Boughey - new trainer, 2 newcomers this season both placed (11/1 3rd & 7/4 2nd)

We can see from that most of them look unlikely today, but Boughey is interesting as he has only had a couple of runners and both placed, and his runner Miss Fernanda has been backed into 2nd favourite. She is by first season sire Prince Of Lir, who already has a Group winner (The Lir Jet, Norfolk), 2 of his other 6 runners finished 2nd on debut at prices of 18/1 & 9/2.

So just for a bit of fun, I have done Miss Fernanda/Miss Milby straight forecast.

Good luck.