BEST of the BETS

My thoughts on all the runners.

Ruskin Red - big prices both starts and well beaten both times, more of the same likely.

Second Slip - rare runner for James Fanshawe at Bath, he has sent only 5 here in last 10 years, 1 winner (11/4) and 1 2nd (13/2), all 5 were in handicaps though. Last time he sent a newcomer here was way back in 2003, it finished 4th of 16 at 33/1 before going on to place at Listed level 3 times. So, interesting because of that. Dam Arkadina placed at up to Group 3 level (aged 4), but pedigree doesn’t suggest a win first time as most in the family needed time.

Dutch Schultz - Beckett has an excellent record with 3yo newcomers on turf, 12% strike rate overall, but 14 from 56 (+34 LSP) with those priced at up to 10/1, compare that to just 1 from 67 with those priced bigger than 10/1 - but 10 of them placed, some at huge prices. So market could be a guide to what’s expected but likely to run well.

Crystal Pegasus - rated 87, and has ability having made the frame on 5 of his 6 starts, but a bit worrying that 4 of his defeats have come when priced 6/4 and shorter, he is a short price again. One to beat if you go purely on ratings, but that record of getting beaten at short prices is enough to put me off.

Moomba - rated 84, but is another one that has had a few chances, 2nd on last two runs, latest in a handicap at Goodwood off 79. Was staying on at finish, but drops back a furlong here, and to me seems a bit flattered by his rating. Has a chance but short enough price for me to pass.

Grand Deed - weak in betting on Lingfield debut going off at 12/1, didn’t look straightforward. Change of trainer and the blinkers have gone on now. Trainer has a good record here, but this one needs to improve plenty from debut effort.

Glory Dab - finished in midfield on Haydock debut, but took a step backwards when beaten 20 lengths next time, unlikely winner but isn’t without a chance of a place, will be more interesting in a handicap after this run or if dropped to maiden company.

Blue Eagle - 40/1 on debut and finished 30+ lengths last. Trainer has a poor record in 3yo novices, so impossible to fancy.

Ridgeway - unexpected (10/1) easy winner of a 4 runner maiden over c&d last time, hard to know what to make of the form as the runner up was well behind Moomba at Goodwood next time. Penalty makes things difficult as he has to give weight to a couple that have similar rating to him, but he is open to improvement.

So, a good novice with 3 horses rated in mid-80s, but there are question marks against top two. From top 3, I would go with Ridgeway - even with him it’s not easy as he has to carry a penalty, but at least he is a backable price at 4/1, and he is open to more improvement after just two runs. But I have taken a small chance on Ralph Beckett newcomer DUTCH SCHULTZ (16/1). Only a small each way bet, as a newcomer will need to be pretty good as mentioned there are three 80s rated horses in there and you would normally expect one of the 3 to win. Of others, I will be watching Glory Dab for future as there was some promise in his first run.

Good luck.