BEST of the BETS

Airglow - 5 lbs lower than when 6th (beaten 4 1/3 lengths) in this race last year, did go close over 6 here last October (was very well backed that day) from same mark as today, this looks tougher. Interesting though that they are running him just 4 days after last run, Mick Easterby does well when quickly turning out horses after an unplaced run.

Aleef - won here in March from 3 lbs lower (had 4 of these behind), but beaten next time from revised mark. Not been seen since then so has fitness to prove.

Crosse Fire - has an excellent record at Southwell, having won here 13 times, including 8 times over this distance. Finished 5th in this race 2 years ago, and won it last year. Back on same mark as last year’s win (has also won off higher since then). I feel this is a stronger race than last year though, still too dangerous to ignore his chance given his record at the course.

Dark Shot - potentially well handicapped judged on his 3rd in this race last year from 18 lbs higher mark. Has had similar preparation to last year and beaten exactly same distance at Goodwood as he was in that race last year, but from 16 lbs lower this time. So not sure if he can take advantage of low handicap mark.

Doc Sportello - is in good form at present. Has only run here twice before, earlier this year finishing 2nd & 4th in small fields from same mark as today. Won at Chepstow earlier this month, having finished 3rd in same race previous year, which is another indication that he is in good form so every chance he could run well today.

Drakefell - only one of these who has not run here before, and having first run since April 2019. 2 lbs lower than last win, but it will take a special training performance to win after such a long absence.

Moveonup - won here in January, but that was in class 6. Went close 3 times after that including in class 2. He is only 4, so could improve.

Red Stripes - 6 wins and 8 places from 24 runs here, but all those wins were in class 5 & 6. This is much tougher.

Requited - 2 from 6 here, handicap win was in class 6 from 1 lb lower. Behind a couple of these last time, but he is only 4 so still open to improvement and has the in-form Hollie Doyle on board.

Samovar - another Southwell regular, has won here 5 times but all wins at lower level than this and was only 8th in this race last year from same mark as today.

Young Tiger - 2 from 7 here (both wins in class 6), in good form winning 2 of last 3 on turf including in class 3. On a career high mark now though, so I am going to oppose in this competitive race.

Zapper Cass - 4 from 6 over this c&d, but 3 of those wins were in very uncompetitive races including one in a seller. 4 lbs higher than last handicap win here (won by 6 lengths). Mick Appleby has done well in this race, with a win and 2nd (14/1 & 3/1) in last two years, so I wouldn’t rule him out.

Zylan - only 7th in this race last year from 1 lb higher mark. But other than that he has a good record here with 6 wins and 4 places from just 16 runs. Runs particularly well when fresh, record of 121 with this trainer when returning from a 4 months+ break. I don’t think he can win today as it’s a competitive race, but has place chances.

Very competitive race with lots of horses that do well here, I would love Crosse Fire to win, and I think he will run well at a big price and I am havin a little saver on him just in case. Zapper Cass also has a chance, the 4yos Moveonup and Requited could improve, and Dark Shot would also have a chance if he can somehow return to form. I have gone with one that hasn’t won here yet though, DOC SPORTELLO, he is in good form, and I find it interesting that Tony Carroll has put the apprentice on this time. Carroll has a 14% strike rate and +30% ROI when he has apprentices riding his runners in handicaps at Southwell (excluding apprentice jockeys races), compared to 8% strike rate and -58% with senior jockeys. This is even more true in higher class races with 4 from 14 (+10 LSP) in class 4 or better with apprentices. I think Zylan can also run well with his good record returning from a break, and will back him for place only, though it’s such a competitive race that even getting a place might not be easy.

Bets - small win on Doc Sportello @ 13/2, small place only on Zylan @ around 4.3 on exchange.

Good luck.