Love Southwell, will be a shame if the replace the surface.
The same horses tend to win time and time again here, once a trainer gets a horse that’s goes on the surface they tend to target the horses entire campaign at the track, especially at the lower levels.
One early eyecatcher is Weld Al Emarat in the 1235, only one run here, first time out, won.
Now with Mick Easterby improvement expected tomorrow
Good luck. My top bet is elsewhere MARIENSTAR with B Frost taking 3lbs off. Won well last time rise in hcap might not stop it. 3.30 KEMPTON. 3-1 avail.
12:05 - Sheridan, 3-1, Paddy, Front two in the betting have the course form I just prefer the favs form
12:35 - Weld Al Emarat, 11-2, Paddy
105, Piazon, 8-1, Bet365, don’t know much about the trainer but this was has crashed down the handicap the last 12 months and if she has half a horse back he should win.
215, Virnon, 14-1, Paddy, Bet365, below a cd winning mark, recent spin over hurdles may have been needed for fitness
245, Lucky Begger, 13-2, Bet365, Paddy Trainer runs 3 and this looks his best chance to me. No win here but placed off much higher marks, this his easiest task on the surface to date.
Good prices because the markets underestimate the course form. As per last weeks discussion, the trainer will have set plans with the owners months ago for this track, last few runs have merely been prep runs to maintain fitness and get the horses in the routine of travelling to the races etc.
The markets are looking at the last 3 races in the horses form where as Im focusing on Southwell form only.
Notice the winners were strong in the betting late on, being clipped a few points in the betting, that’s because connections were on today.
With respect to the first race, my selection went well, the winner, although didn’t have course form was clearly set out for this track, the dam was a course winner, and it was well backed.
Going to track Lucky Begger, he should be winning in the next few weeks, I noticed he was hampered and jockey went easy on him, one for another day back here