Thanks everyone, and thanks Amadeus for putting up provisional entries for Sunday, would have to consider race and handicap mark before backing Ornate if he runs again, as generally trainer’s record with follow up wins in handicaps isn’t great.
I might have a very small bet on it as it’s a big price (14/1 currently), but it wouldn’t be a confident bet for me as I am mostly concentrating on his runners that finished in first 6 last time, and this one didn’t. He would have a chance on his run here in November when beaten a length in a bunch finish as he is 3 lbs lower than that. But that was over 6 furlongs, extra furlong tomorrow is the question mark especially as it’s a strong looking class 4.
griffs has a 17% strike rate for the last 30days,
only 8% for the year so the stable is in form, and 15% for the track.
I think the betting has got this one pretty much correct.
7th best at 23 on bf this morning.
could be a possible place bet.
Red Cymbal was only 8th, but it wasn’t a confident selection as there were enough doubts.
There are two more from Griffiths tomorrow, and I have already backed both.
6:55 Newcastle - Warriors Valley (25/1), this is one of the 3 horses that ran well on the day that I felt was turning point in trainer’s form, other two Archimedes and Pearl Acclaim won next time. It will be harder for this one, because unlike other two, this one is stepping up in class (I know last race was class 5 too, but this is a higher band of class 5 with top weight on 77 so this is more like a class 4 really). But despite the class rise, I think he will run better than his odds and I have backed each way.
7:25 Newcastle - Archimedes (7/1), he won over c&d last time, up 4 lbs for that but on old form he still looks well handicapped so not impossible to see him follow up.
Thanks guys. Got 7/1 for Archimedes last night. Warriors Valley also didn’t run badly, remember he was up in class so to finish 5th is not bad, his turn can’t be far away, drop him back to weaker class 5 or 6 and over an easier 5 furlong, maybe at Lingfield where he has won before.
No runners for Griffiths tomorrow.
So far it’s gone even better than I expected, 5 winners from 12, +20 LSP @ SP (more at early prices) since I started following, should be few more winners to come yet, prices will probably start dropping though as everyone will be aware that he is in form now.
I have a free bet in the 1.05 at Chepstow now because of this winner. Just a question if I Back a horse each way with the free bet will the win part be refunded or does it have to be a straight win bet ? It’s with Bet 365
“If your risk free bet is an Each-Way selection that is placed, and the return on the bet is less than the total stake, we will refund the difference between your return and the total stake. If your return is greater than the total stake then no refund will be given.” Copied from Bet365
You can back each way, but I find that unless it’s a big price, better option is to go straight win in these situations.
Sorry I didn’t post it, I really didn’t think he had a chance because this wasn’t a handicap, he had to run off level weights against the winner who is rated 17 lbs higher, so you are right - Ornate has run a cracker.