BEST of the BETS

Polar Light failed to win in 16 races on the flat and on her 3 runs over hurdles she has been beaten by 16, 43 & 38 lengths, hardly the type of horse I should be backing but it is her first run in a handicap hurdle so I am taking a closer look. I am not interested in her flat races, only looking at the 3 hurdle races, she started at prices of 50/1, 25/1 & 150/1 so clearly nothing was expected of her. First of those runs she finished 5th of 10 (beaten 16 lengths), winner is now rated 120, 3rd 109 and 6th 90, all of those look her opening mark of 89 look favourable. 2nd run looks her worst as she was 10th of 11 (beaten 43 lengths), those ahead of her look a mixed bunch (3rd horse rated only 99, but 7th rated 107). On her last run, she was 11th of 16 (beaten 38 lengths) but that looks a strong race as horses ahead of her include a few now rated 126, 124, 121, 118, and she was ahead of one rated 99. So two of those runs make her mark of 89 look lenient, only the middle run is a negative for me. Her trainer Paul Henderson doesn’t really get winners in novice/maiden hurdles, but they show improvement when they go handicapping. Henderson’s record is 4 from 51 first time in a handicap hurdle, that might not sound very impressive but remember most of his runners go off at big prices, if you only include his runners that are sent off at single figure prices on handicap debut then it’s 4 from 7 (+19 LSP), that record improves to 3 from 3 (prices 11/2, 9/2, 9/2) at Plumpton. Henderson gets more winners at Plumpton than anywhere else, he has an impressive 23% record in handicaps here (22 from 95, +51 LSP) and jockey is 2 from 4 for him in handicaps here. Selection is priced 7/1 at the moment, and betting will be important, hopefully it won’t drift much, but even his bigger priced handicap debutants here have run well without winning (4th & 6th at 25/1). Trainer has another runner in a handicap later on the card, Sizing Sahara also ridden by same jockey.

Wellcwhathappens is another one making his handicap debut in this race and could also run well at a big price, and I have had a saver on that.

Each way bet on Polar Light (7/1, 4 places with Betfair) and saver on Wellcwhathappens @ 16/1

Good luck.