BEST of the BETS

Another thing to keep in mind when following stats is averages, for example in yesterday’s stats you can see there have been 11 top rated handicaps in last 10 years so that’s an average of just over 1 a year, so we cannot expect lots of top rated winners in handicaps, as soon as we get one top rated winner in a handicap it maybe best to stop.

Today’s stat relates to combination of distance and class as we know it takes stamina to win at Cheltenham so we are looking for horses that have proved they can run well at further than the distance of race. And you also need a horse that has run well in same class.

Horses that have won or placed at least 3 times over longer distance, and won or placed at least once in same class have done very well in past.

Those who met above two conditions, and were priced 10/1 or shorter have a 27% strike rate over last 10 years, with 39 wins from 146 bets for LSP of +51.16. This stat has also shown profit in 7 out of last 10 years.

I hope someone finds these useful, todays piece doesn’t only relate to Cheltenham, it can help improve your daily selections too.

Today’s stat relates to form, form is very important, people interpret form in different ways, the way I look at form is to not just look at how the horse has been running but I consider it more important to look at how the horses it has been running against have done since then. For example you might have a horse that won last time but then all the horses from that race have run poorly since then, in that case the form is probably not very good.

Looking at last 10 years at festival, we are looking for horses that won or placed on their latest run, then we look at that last race and if at least two thirds (67%) of the horses to have run since that race were at least placed in their next race, then we have a selection. This method has produced 43 winners from 352 bets, at 12% strike rate for LSP of +100.26 over last 10 years. This method has proved profitable in 6 out last 10 years.

Please note the low strike rate, that’s what makes this a riskier method than others so we should be aware that this can result in a long losing streak. Strike rate can be improved by setting a price limit but then we lose the big priced winners (it has produced winners at up to 33/1).

Thanks mate for your time posting.very informative .ty :wink:

Hi AKD
A very significant factor in Cheltenham is the ability to perform on the course
Do you have views or research on horses which have previously been placed at Cheltenham particularly in the same code and approx distance

And of course speed
Everything happens here at speed and that is what catches out so many pretenders

Thanks, Rodeo. Maxh, I have looked at placed form at the course angle and you are correct, stats show it to be a big positive if the horse is also prominent in betting. Strangely (or maybe not), horses that have been placed only once at the course don’t do very well, you need horses that have placed at the course at least twice before. I went back to look at why horses that have placed only once before at the course don’t do so well, and by separating them it shows that those who were placed only previous run at course also show a small profit but it’s those that have run at the course more than once before but only placed once that should be avoided as they have performed poorly.

So to summarise, look for horses that have won or placed at least twice before at the course (it doesn’t have to be at main festival meeting, and can be over different distances and in different disciplines), and they must be priced 5/1 or shorter. Over last 10 years these have produced 44 winners from 147 bets (30% strike rate) for +18.33 LSP, and been profitable in 6 out of 10 years. This method does significantly better in chase races than in hurdles.

Thanks AKD
Look forward to your continuing comments

For today’s stat I am looking at Preparation, by this I mean which races the horses ran in right before running at Cheltenham, and ten year stats shows this method to be most profitable. Leopardstown’s big meeting at end of January is by far the most profitable when it comes to finding winners at Cheltenham festival. It’s not really surprising as that Leopardstown meeting is very competitive with all Irish trainers running their top horses there in preparation for Cheltenham, and falling about 6 weeks before Cheltenham it’s at just the right time. Christmas meeting and other smaller meetings there have also proved profitable.

So for this we are looking for horses that ran in a Graded race (Grade 1, 2, 3, handicaps as well as non handicaps) at Leopardstown last time, and either won or were beaten no more than 5 lengths. Following just these two conditions has given 40 winners (Willie Mullins responsible for 17 of them) from 180 bets at a strike rate of 22% for LSP of, wait for it... +149.37 at SP (+195 at Betfair SP), that’s doubling your money. It has proved to be most consistent of all methods I have listed as it has shown a profit in 9 out of 10 years and only a small loss in the other year. Biggest priced winner using this method has been 33/1.

That’s all for now, I think we have enough there to work with. With my four methods and one requested by Maxh, we can expect a total of about 100 qualifiers over the 4 days, that’s an average of about 3 to 4 selections per race, which is more than enough. I don’t intend to back every selection, but all these methods will guide me in making my selections. Time permitting, I will list the qualifiers on this thread the night before.

Good luck all, here’s to a good festival, hoping all the horses and jockeys stay safe, and we make a bit of profit too.

Thankx For Sharing

Thanks, Calvert.

I am listing all the current qualifiers, but please note some of these methods are subject to price movements so some of these may no longer be selections if they drift out of price range, and some others not listed here may become selections later. I will try to update later, but can’t promise.

Key to which method a selection qualifies through (some selections qualify through more than one method)

TR - Top rated (may be subject to price movements)
HD - proven over higher distances (may be subject to price movements)
LF - how well the form of last race has worked out
CF - course form (may be subject to price movements)
LL - ran well at Leopardstown last time

1:30 - Klassical Dream (TR, LL), Grand Sancy (LF), Itchy Feet (LF), Mister Fisher (LF), Aramon (LL)

2:10 - Hardline (TR, HD), Duc Des Genievres (HD), Kalashnikov (HD), Lalor (HD), Clondaw Castle (LF)

2:50 - Lake View Lad (TR), Minella Rocco (HD)

3:30 - Apples Jade (HD, CF, LL), Buveur Dair (TR, CF), Laurina (HD), Brain Power (LF), Sharjah (LL)

4:10 - Benie Des Dieux (TR), Roksana (HD), Elimay (LL)

4:50 - Highway One O One (TR, LF), Cubomania (TR), Red Indian (TR), Quamino (LL)

5:30 - Ok Corral (TR), Jerrysback (LF), Whisperinthebreeze (LL)

No changes to selections from the betting so far.

6/1 winner and 25/1 3rd from the stats in the first race.
5/1 winner and 33/1 4th in the 2nd race.

Superb
Really reducing the field

Great post AKD. Some trends are set in stone.

:starstruck:

Thanks guys, only one further winner. Backing every runner would have made a small loss today, method relating to horses proven over further distance did best today, maybe it had something to do with soft going putting more emphasis on stamina.

Breakdown of how different methods did today.

Top rated - 9 sels, 1 winner (6/1), -2 LSP
High distance - 8 sels, 2 winners (10/1 & 5/1), +9 LSP
Last race form - 7 sels, 0 winners (but placers at 33/1, 25/1 & 16/1), -7 LSP
Course form - 2 sels, 0 winners, -2 LSP
Last time a Leopardstown - 7 sels, 1 winner (6/1), 0 LSP

Today’s qualifiers (note TR, HD, CF methods are subject to price movements, though most of them should be ok, will update any changes before start of racing)

1:30 - Champ (TR), Bright Forecast (LF)

2:10 - Delta Work (TR, LL), Topofthegame (TR), Santini (CF)

2:50 - Erick Le Rouge (LF), Wicklow Brave (LF), Calie Du Mesnil (LL), Uradel (LL)

3:30 - Altior (TR, HD, CF), Min (HD, CF, LL)

4:10 - Tiger Roll (TR, CF), Auvergnat (LL)

4:50 - Torpillo (TR), Praeceps (LF)

5:30 - Envoi Allen (TR, LL), Master Debonair (LF), Thyme Hill (LF), Meticulous (LL)

Nice 25/1 placer in the first.

No changes in qualifiers due to betting so far.

Thanks, Bodger. Yes 2nd & 3rd, but need some winners.

Got a little on the combo forecast and the combo tricast!
Well done